bets...
BR1 is beyond our reach
BR2 (you) has 4,000, bets ?
BR3 has 3,760
What makes this teaser interesting is that, with minimum bet set relatively high and BR2 lead smaller than half max bet, BR2 betting enough to cover opponent’s max bet would still advance when both players lose, even if the opponent bet only a minimum.
Also, as if often the case in real situations, different bets and plays may be more effective depending on opponent skills (and ours).
Since all players have huge stacks of chips that are significant multiples of maximum bet it can be easier to consider not numbers representing total bankrolls but just the differences between them.
So it goes:
Betting 230 - “true low” advances us when BR3 doesn’t win big bet, also we can “steal” some hands by doubling/splitting, or receiving a blackjack, which forces BR3 to win doubled bet – total chance of advancing about 60%.
Betting 270/280 – unfortunately is not as advantageous as basic strategy would suggest (or fortunately if it is us departing from basic strategy, lol). If we win our bet, or even get bj, or win double, BR3 double and bj with a big bet eliminates us. Depending on both players’ skills -- total chance of advancing is in low to high sixties %.
Betting 390/430 – value of this bet depends mostly on whether BR3 responds with a small bet (against bet of 390 optimal bet would be 130/150, but with BR2 bet of 420 or more BR3 should bet 170) or fires up 250 and up.
The goal is to make this bet in a manner that would induce BR3 to bet big. Against small bet our (BR2) -- total chance of advancing are below 50%.
However, if BR3 bets big, which also indicates that he is prone to make mistakes, our total chance grows to almost 80%.
We need to be right, guessing that opponent will bet big, about 7 out of 10 times to make it the most valuable bet.
With surrender available 390/420 should be the bet (betting 430 and surrendering ties us with BR3 surrendering his bet of 50.
S. Yama
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my non-pro 30 sec bet
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