Recently played in 2 day yaamava BJT. First day was accumulation (high chip ct) type to decide who advanced to 2nd day of tournament. They don't post scores, you have to guess if you have enough. Played last yr, and cut off was about 36,000. This yr scores are much higher for cutoff. (Mulligans available for purchase also) I had 54,000 before last hand, all-in, ended up with 108,000. Took top 23 players, 108,000 was 5th place. Advanced. Top 2 players went directly to semifinals, (needed about 125,000). Day2: Qtr final. 6 players to a table, & 3 players advance. 3 players were gone off our table before reaching end (18 hands). I finished 3rd, and advanced. Semi-finals. 4 players to a table, and 1 winner advances to final table. Ok. What would you have done?? We lost 2 players off our table half way through (total 24 hands). Was down to me and another player. At count before last hand, I had 17,500 and other player had 17,300. I had to act first on last hand. (This other player played a strong game, in that he wasn't afraid to bet big.) I held 200 back & bet 17300. He of course held 300 back, betting 17000. Dealer showing a 3. The other player had hard 19, and no mulligan chip/card. I had hard 14, face & a 4. I did have my mulligan chip/card still to use. What to do: - use mulligan, get rid of 4, & go for. face? - stay on 14, against dealer 3? - hit 14 against dealer 3, then use mulligan if needed, hoping not to bust with last card? Your recommendation??? I'll post what I did, soon. Doc
Hi Doc. First off I want to say it's nice to see somebody hitting the BJT Connect room here on blackjacktournaments.com. I'd hoped we might be able to revive these discussions a little bit when we arranged for it. I have to admit that I haven't been very loyal and coming back to it myself since we didn't have much activity but I did get a notification of your post here. I'm glad I did. To your question, what to do?: If in fact the Mulligan could be used after taking the hit, right or wrong, I think I'd hit the 14 against the dealer's 3, then use mulligan if needed, hoping not to bust with last card.
First off, it's very nice to see a live tournament situation teaser posted here again. It's been a very long time! I try to come up with an answer within 30 seconds before I dig into any research and my 30 second answer was to mulligan the 4 to try and win your hand. Many years ago, I generated a basic strategy for using the mulligan for various goals. Your goal here is to win your hand. If you lose, he has the low on you. You could push while he loses, but that's not worth playing for as you would need to hit to 20 or more (with or without using the mulligan) and winning your hand is a much more likely goal. You didn't specify the rules but the strategy below is for 6D S17 DOA, Mulligan either of the 1st two cards, Mulligan the last card thereafter including after doubling. https://gronbog.org/results/blackjack/strategy/bjt.com/mustWinWithMulligan.html According to the strategy, when holding T,4 vs 3 with the goal of winning your hand, you should mulligan the 4 for a success rate of 56.90% (hover your mouse over the cell in the table). Mulligan the T is the next best move at 44.06%, followed by hitting (44.00%) and standing (38.04%). This assumes you go on to play the correct strategy for winning your hand after using the mulligan which, in this case, is simply normal basic strategy. I'm interested to hear what you did. I'm also interested in why you didn't bet 200 minus 1 chip in order to preserve the low for yourself? I think that would have been your optimal bet.
Tried editing my answer into my post twice, but site would not let me save changes to my post. (?) Tonight, I talked with some players from here in MN and WI, at the Running Aces final championship tournament. Most agreed with what I did. Gronbog, love your posts. Yes, I thought about betting my lead minus chip. However, I played in some of the Fortune Bay casino tournaments offered every week (Wednesday) in October. I played the 2nd week tournament, and won 1st. The 3rd week tournament, I was 1st to bet on last hand and used that type strategy, won my hand but not enough to advance to finals that night. Thought about that bet, over and over during 4 hr drive home. I played the 5th week, and won 1st place in tournament that night. Yaamava: $200 buy-in, Mulligans available for $100 a round. No buy ins on 2nd day, However, Mulligans still available each round. (Final table Mulligans are $500 each). Min bet 100, no max bet With 3 hands left I was about a few thousand behind. 3rd from last hand. Received two 8's, split them. Got 3, doubled down for 21. Face on other 8, for 18. Won both. Was thinking of going all-in on 2nd to last hand if previous hand didn't go well. However, now thinking of NOT going all-in, since just won on splitting 8's. 2nd to last hand: Think I bet 2000. Received blackjack. (2:1). Last Hand: I used mulligan to remove the 4, and go for face. Received a 5, then stayed on 15. Opponent had 19. Dealer showing 3, under card think was 5, drew a 2, and drew an 8, for 18. If I stayed on 14, dealer busts, I win. Hit my 14, for 19, dealer draws to 18, I win. Hate hindsight!!! Players voted to chop, each $25,000 cash. Casino may not chop in future, knowing they are losing 3000 in Mulligans at final table. Thank you to all who posted here, and those I personally discussed this situation with. I value all the answers that were put forth.
I may have still played it wrong, but..... Didn't the discussion above revert to before you placed your bet? My decision was based on you having already placed a $17,300 bet and the other circumstances being as you stated above. Then your question, right?
Yes, the strategy discussion has been centered on the circumstances after his actual bet of $17,300. Looks like the consensus and the actual action taken were to mulligan the 4 and then try to win the hand. I did proposed an alternate bet of $200 minus a chip which Doc says he considered. In my opinion, that would have been the optimal bet against a strong player who, as it turns out, did take the low for himself when presented with the opportunity. There are never any guarantees, but taking the low has a higher success rate than giving it up by taking the high in this situation. Had Doc made the smaller bet, then his opponent (a strong player, according to Doc) would have bet big enough to cover any win by Doc (including doubles and splits) and Doc's hand and how he played it would have been irrelevant.
Thanks. That’s how I understood it, but I was still wondering about the actual play decision since his $17,300 bet had already been made. If the Mulligan can be used after taking a hit, would it not be preferable to take the hit first-essentially giving him two chances to improve the hand? For example, if he drew a deuce, or a bust card, he could still use the Mulligan and then hope not to bust on the replacement card?
My strategy generator considers this and still recommended using the mulligan on the 4. I think that the strong possibility of drawing a ten or an ace on the mulligan for a total of 20 or BJ outweighs any "second chance". Ending up with 20 forces the opponent to hit his 19 and almost guarantees that Doc advances. A blackjack is a guaranteed win (no push possible) which guarantees advancing. Once you have hit, you need to draw from a smaller subset of card ranks (where 10 is made up of 4 ranks) to make a successful hand and only 2 of them will give you 20 or 21.
Thanks again. Did not mention in posts, how I usually play. I will usually count cards. Now I know players have told me that it doesn't help in tournament play. If I plan to make a max bet or all-in bet, I will usually try to do it with a positive high count. Especially true if I still have a mulligan to use, just in case. In this past game, I think there was a slight positive count. Thinking back, it may have been negated in my last couple hands before final hand; face cards whe I split and my blackjack hand. Don't remember all the cards played by everyone. Usually if it was a negative count, I would have hit my 14, looking for smaller cards, especially with mulligan available. However, was caught up in the moment and still went for face card, after discarding the 4. Probably should have taken the low also, but my play the month earlier when I didn't advance to final table with my lower bet, kept haunting me. Thanks again!!!!
Interesting thread. As for counting, I look at it this way. If you're a longtime counter, it's so habitual that it just happens. The degree that it helps you in tournaments is EXTREMELY small but, even so, why not maximize any/all "edges"? I'm curious. Where the hell is Yaamava? Billy C
