EV in Poker vs. Bj

Discussion in 'Other Games Events' started by S. Yama, Jun 3, 2004.

  1. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    Sorry for the late respond.
    I am pressed for time but here are a few points.

    There are thousands… I mean millions upon millions poker players. There are countless cash games and poker tournaments happening all the time. It is relatively easy to find ring games or poker tournaments where an “okay†player has a positive expectation.

    There are many excellent poker players, they are talented and often put a lot of effort to become that good.
    You can line them up by their skill level and gradually they would be very good, good, average, and not so good.
    Bj players, all two hundred and ten of them, sometimes have to wait for tournaments weeks or months. Where are the times that Star or Riv were attracting 500 players? How many individual players participated in Hilton in over two years of trials?
    Also, in bj tournaments the top 2% bj players possess excellent skills, then 3%-4% are very good … and 90% are below the average.

    Even if one is good, one needs big bankrolls for both poker and bj tourneys. In poker -to withstand the variance, and in bj -to have $$ for hi-rolling, so one gets invited for special events.

    Let’s look at some numbers. I am making them up to illustrate the point. A good tournament player who is “worth†twice the entry fee can make ten trips, play fifteen tournaments a year (half of them requireing entry fee and half semi-invitational, or comped). His or her total entry fees can be about $5,000, his tournament winnings $10K, cost of the traveling $2-$5K and gambling another $2K plus. Overall, it is not-so-expensive to very expensive hobby.

    Full time poker player who is worth only 20% of his entry fees, can spend more than $500K a year (isn’t it crazy?) in tournament fees. The $100K profit, minus traveling expenses is enough to live on, but not much more. Now, if you are “worth†twice your entries, that’s a different story.

    To estimate my value as poker player I would calculate the ratio of the entry fees to the wins.
    In blackjack I prefer to calculate how much better I am over the average player per round and then analyze tournament structure (more on it soon).

    During WSOP I talked to the guy –he was a member of almost ten-player team. They all were pros, traveling with the poker circuit. Last year, by mid October they were in red almost half million. Then, they got “lucky†to finish the year over $350K plus. That means that one player, a “pro qualityâ€, could go for years without making profits.

    Winning huge prizes like $1mill at Hilton’s bj or multimillions in poker should not be considered in analysis of “making moneyâ€, except for a very few, they (big numbers) just skew the picture out of proportion. At the same time, becoming very, very good reduces the variance, and guarantees winning “something†all the way to seven figure sums.

    S. Yama
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2004
  2. TXtourplayer

    TXtourplayer Executive Member

    Nice article S. Yama

    Thanks S. Yama, as always you come through with an interesting story. I have never seen you play poker, but I personally think your in the top ten of all tournament Blackjack players (without a doubt).

    Good luck with the poker and all other games as well, I'll see you in August (I hope).
     
  3. Hollywood

    Hollywood New Member

    Very interesting analysis. Thank you for your thoughts on the subject.

    I am starting to grasp this concept myself. I have played in about 50 poker tournaments this year so far, and have had no trouble getting to the final table at events with buy-ins BELOW $100 (prize pool ~5k-15k) at least 50% of the time. As the buy-ins increase, my final table ratio dramatically shifts downward. I have had a few nice final tables at the $100 and $250 level, but never once at $300, $500 or above (with prize pools usually in excess of $100k) (not including online one-table tourneys, a quick way to pick up a few grand). This results in an unfortunate eating of most of the profits I glean off the smaller tournaments!

    For sure, there is a different caliber of poker player at the events with the larger buy-in. But I wonder if there are other factors that result in this variance. Larger field of players, different blind/starting stake structure. I've noticed that in a lot of the bigger events, they start you with a relatively low amount of chips ($800) for the blinds ($25) -- in essence forcing you to play much tighter, because one missed draw or cracked semi-bluff leaves you too paralyzed to be of much use. Perhaps I am missing some crucial element of poker tournament strategy as I shift to the higher games; with a larger field & more at stake with the higher prize pool, perhaps adopting a more hands-off policy is crucial, similar to minimum betting the majority of a blackjack tournament: waiting to see who will burn themselves out early on before getting involved. A shame to not be the one who picks up on the chips lesser players squander, however! I am always improving my play but like you say, there are obviously other factors besides playing strategy that effect the win ratio. Especially at the events with the higher buy-ins.


    Rock on --

    -hollywood dave.
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2004
  4. instagator

    instagator New Member

    Celebrity Poker

    Dave
    Just saw were Ben AFLACK won over $300K in celeb poker. Was that a made for TV celeb game loaded with Hollywood poker wannabees or was the game a legit open tournament?
    All In !
    IG
     
  5. TXtourplayer

    TXtourplayer Executive Member

    Real money?

    The $300,000 Ben won, was it 3K in chips, 3K for chairity, or real money for him? Where was it held and when?

    Thanks for the info instagator!
     
  6. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    It was a regular open event, not a special celebrity or charity function.

    Here's the story:
    http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040621/lam117_1.html

    We need a celebrity to win a nice blackjack event. That would be great for the attention it brings to the game.
     
  7. Hollywood

    Hollywood New Member

    Um... one almost DID at this year's WSoBJ, but that damn 3 landed and handed MIT Mike the title instead. ;)
     

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