Just decompressing (licking my wounds) from the Golden Nugget Las Vegas tournament. It was great talking to a lot of great players (friends) there at the tournament. Tournament consisted of 3 players to a table, with 1 player advancing off each table. Played 18 hands per table, with a count before last hand. Double Deck. No Surrender. Had mulligans available as usual. Blackjack paid 3 to 2. No doubling after splitting. Could double for less. I had crap hands in first round, and also my rebuy round. Tried to catch leaders about half way through each round. Busted out before reaching last few hands in both rounds, trying to catch up to others. Was lucky enough to have my name drawn for Quarterfinal round, in wildcard drawings. One player went out with a few hands left, & I was then going to be the First to bet on the last hand. I was 2nd place throughout the game, until leader bet first on 2nd to last hand. I overtook the lead going into last hand. Going into final hand I had the lead by 1200 ( 7200 vs 6000). I was betting first. Personally, I like to keep in mind "dealers have the advantage; or the game would not be in the casinos". I talked to a lot of the great players there after I was done with the round, to get their opinions on what amount they would have bet (and why) if in my place on that last hand. Thank you, in no particular order, to johnr, jamesmcnulty, sky, & rich (sorry if I left anyone out). Please post your bet and why you chose that amount if in my position. Just trying to learn more for the future. Betting limit: 100-2000 max (100 increments). Going into last hand, the count was at -3. I will post what I bet and the outcome, in a couple days. Thanks.
Your thought re: that house advantage is correct and is the basis of many betting decisions, including this one. Under normal circumstances, unless surrender is available, this is a very basic betting situation. When betting first with a lead, force your opponent to win by betting your lead minus one chip. Before any cards are dealt, your chance of success will be about 57%. If surrender is available, and you think that your opponent knows to take the low when offered, you could try the surrender trap. Bet your lead plus a minimum bet plus a chip. If your opponent then bets the minimum to take the low, you can lock in a win by surrendering. If you have enough of a lead, you might want to make this move a little less obvious by betting a bit more. The mulligan may make a difference. I once generated the basic strategy for using the mulligan for the old Las Vegas Hilton rules. Here is the thread: https://www.blackjacktournaments.com/threads/mulligan-strategy.7505/ Note that using the optimal mulligan strategy for must-win situations for those rules resulted in a 55.65% chance of winning your hand and a high chance of generating a blackjack using the mulligan. I don't know if the mulligan makes winning a hand more likely than losing for the GNLV rules. If it does and if your opponent still has his mulligan, then you would be better off betting enough to cover your opponent's max bet blackjack. This would be true whether or not you still have your mulligan. If there are no limits then I would hold back one chip and bet the rest in this situation.
Thanks Gronbog!! Usually I would have done a max bet, but did not want the other player to take the Low. Figured he would do a max of 2000. I took max of 2000 - 1200 (my lead) for total of 800, then added 1 chip, for my total bet of 900. He bet the max 2000. I had 2 face cards (20), he had soft 14(or 13). Dealer showing a 5. I split faces, and received 2 more faces. I would have had to split 2 more times to get enough out there, but I didn't. Other player doubled, as I expected. He received a face card, used mulligan to replace face, then got another face. Dealer then busted drawing a face card (5 consecutive faces). Afterwards another player said I should have bet my lead amount, another player said bet 1500. Learned my lesson the hard way. WHY BET THE LEAD MINUS 1 CHIP? WHY NOT JUST THE LEAD?
In this case, you are asking why betting $1100 is better than betting $1200. The reason is the “loss/push” outcome. If you lose $1200 and your opponent pushes, you are now tied, leading to a playoff. That doesn’t happen if you lose $1100.
