“SIX TIMES ALL-IN IN THE FIRST HOUR OF THE MAIN EVENT OF WSOP 2004†May 23rd 04’, Sunday, 1:03 P.M Here we go, the main event of WSOP starts. Over 2,500 players and $5 million to the winner. The air is filled with high expectations, excitement, and celebration, but soon players will focus on the game. Raising and reraising, setting traps, and trying to outmaneuver each other will become part of a six-day marathon where the goal is to win, or at least to survive as long as humanly possible. There are no “professionals†at my table – the guys who travel around the country and play on the tournament circuit. That’s good! Every bit of edge helps. The first hand of the championship event doesn’t foreshadow approaching excitement. Guy on the button raises to 125 (blinds start 25-50) and all players fold. The same fate meets my big blind in the second hand. In the third hand everybody folds to the button, a young guy to my right – the Kid. He raises 250. I muck, and Big Blind (BB) calls. When BB bets after a boring flop is open, the Kid folds. He was trying to steal, and I make a mental note that his raise of 250 was a slight overbet. “Nobody wants to be busted?†Player to my right half-jokingly asks. “Perhaps somebody already has busted.†I hear the answer. To exercise my brain, I quickly try to calculate: pockets Aces happen 0.45% of the time, in three hands 2,400 players would have them about 33 times. If ten percent of them went all-in, one player could get busted. “Sure, somebody has.†I chime in. We laugh but not too much as the fourth hand is dealt and I find a nice pair of Tens. Under the Gun (UTG) raises 200, everybody folds to the Kid on my right, who calls. I hesitate for a moment. Normally, I would reraise to chase away overcards, but in this situation I decide to play differently. With inexpensive blinds and the levels lasting two hours I can try to trap somebody if the board cooperates. Also, OTG and the Kid can have two or more (out of the four possible) overcards. I may have to mock my hand if flop comes with two overcards. In the end I decide to just call. The three of us stare at the dealer uncovering the flop. It is all different suites, 8, 9, and …Ten. UTG bets 200 …and the Kid raises additional 600. Now is the time for the analysis: chances of all possible hands, weighing the risk-reward ratio, and crunching all the numbers. Note that if I call, the pot would be 1,875 (25+50+3x200+2x600) - more than 20% of my remaining bankroll. In this hand I have a positive expectation. But is it enough to raise? What would you do? Would you just call (or make a small reraise) to increase the chance of your opponents putting more money into the pot? And, at the same time, face a chance for the board to improve your and/or your opponents’ hands? If you are considering raising but not the all-in raise, what do you do if you get reraised all-in? By the way, the Kid was wearing an Internet poker site cap but he didn’t behave like a maniac. S. Yama
How much $$$ did you start with? 15,000? If so, a hefty raise is in order here. Something like 3000... the fact that there are most likely overcards out there means a straight draw is inevitable. I wouldn't worry about the Kid pushing All-in until it happens -- cross that bridge when we get to it, as Brunson is fond of saying. I would hope to win the pot right there, before it slips away from me (a straight) if it hasn't already. If one of the other players DOES re raise all-in, i'd have to put him on the J or Q (if not both), and really spend some time talking to him/watching him to determine if he had a made hand or was still drawing. I'd go with my gut & make the appropriate decision (muck or call) based on that. So what happened???? -hd. ps on my way down to the hustler casino right now for the monday $100 tourney... later this week is the $500 buy-in @ Commerce for the Cal. Poker Championships -- the $300 buy-in last week didn't fare so well -- my two pair ran into low trips. So hard to put people on low pairs, isn't it? I can't feel too bad though -- Miami J. Cernuto won it that nite, making him the highest final table attendee on record this year, according to cardplayer.com, with 11 final table finishes.
