Suited Blackjacks

Discussion in 'Sidewalk Cafe' started by mociferous, Mar 1, 2006.

  1. mociferous

    mociferous Member

    Can someone tell me the odds of getting a suited blackjack? I have heard it is one in 85 hands, but is that with a shoe? We have a 6-deck shoe in a local promotion...just wondering the odds. I imagine the odds are way better than a 2-deck game.
     
  2. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    85 to 1

    The odds of getting a blackjack (with an infinate deck) are slightly higher than 1 in 21. Since there are 4 suites, the odds of getting a matching suit to the first blackjack card are 1 in 4. Therefore, the odds of getting a suited blackjack are 1 in about 85 (21+ x 4) or 84 to 1. Again, this calculation is based on an infinite deck or shoe.
    Unless I'm mistaken, it makes no difference if a single deck or shoe.

    PS: Title to this post should be "1 in 85" or "84 to 1". Sorry about that.
     
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2006
  3. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    Suited snapper

    It shouldn’t be difficult to calculate exact chances for a suited blackjack in any number of decks. As Toolman correctly wrote it makes no difference for practical reason but if curious minds want to know here is a way to calculate it.
    Let’s say you playing a six deck shoe and you have no additional information as to what cards were used in previous rounds or what cards other players hold. There are faster ways to do it but let’s take a direct route.

    To get a blackjack your first card needs to be an Ace or a Ten, then the second card need to be the same suit card completing blackjack. There are 312 cards in six-deck shoe, 96 cards are ten valued, and there are 24 Aces. Chance for the first card being a Ten (any Ten) is 96 out of 312. To get a blackjack you would need to get same suite Ace; there are 6 of them out of 311 cards left. So, we have 96/312 times 6/311, which is 0.00594.
    If your first card is Ace then you have additional chance of getting suited blackjack 24/312 times same suite Ten 24/311 equals 0.00594. Total chances for suited blackjack in a six deck are 0.01187. That is 1.19%, or one in 84.23 hands.

    For two decks it is 32/102 x 2/101 x 2 = 0.0124248 That is slightly better than for six decks - one in 80.48 hands.

    Now, just for fun, let’s say you walking into a Reno casino with single deck bj tables. In first round there were seventeen cards used with four Tens and no Aces, all suites appeared equally. What is the chance for a suited blackjack in the second round from the same deck for any of the players?

    S. Yama
     
  4. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Double deck question

    S. Yama:

    I don't understand why you used denominators of 102 and 101 in your calculations. It seems to me that the denominators should be 104 (2 decks of 52 x 2) and 103 respectively. This would yield the following formula:
    32/104 x 2/103 x 2 = 0.01195 or 1 in 83.68 hands​


    My previous post:
    I do stand corrected on my previous post. After making the actual calculations, it does seem to make a slight difference with the number of decks - the more decks, the lower the chance of getting a suited blackjack.
     
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2006
  5. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    toolman1, you are right

    Toolman1,
    You are correct. It was my usual sloppiness, two decks have 104 cards not 102.
    If you include additional Ace that I usualy keep in my sleeve then we could argue about 105 cards, but not 102.

    Mociferous, how about the chances for one deck from my previous post.

    S. Y.
     
  6. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Depleted single deck

    Why do you insist on keeping me from sleeping?:laugh:

    OK. As I see it, with your given scenario, the chances of a suited BJ are:

    52 - 17 = 35 cards in play
    16 - 4 = 12 tens in play
    4 - 0 = 4 aces in play
    Calculation:
    12/35 x 1/34 = .34286 x .02941 = .01008
    4/35 x 3/34 = .11429 x .08824 = .01008
    .01008 + .01008 = .02016
    1/.02016 = 49.60

    Therefore, the chances of a suited BJ are 1 in 49.60 hands.

    Can I go to sleep now?:D
     
  7. TXtourplayer

    TXtourplayer Executive Member

    Ladies Night in Albuquerque!

    Going back to the first of this thread, I assume the promotion you are talking about is the one at Isleta Casino?

    They are holding a special promotion on Tuesday nights from 6:00 pm - 10:00 pm.

    When a queen of hearts is exposed the following rule change occurs during that round:

    1. Losers push if they don't bust.

    2. Regular winners are paid 2-1.

    3. Any natural BJ not containing the queen of hearts pays 3-1.

    4. A natural BJ containing the queen of hearts pays 5-1 for guys.

    5. A natural BJ containing the queen of hearts pays 10-1 for the ladies.

    I believe the betting limits are $5 to $500 (don't hold me to that).
     
  8. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Discrimination!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Seems to me to be blatant discrimination. Should I sue?:rolleyes:

    QUEEN OF BLACKJACK - this is your revenge re: "fraternity"
     
  9. Unfortunately

    I do not believe that we can successfully sue because this impropriety occurs on tribal land. ;)
     
  10. Before you book your plane ticket.

    No, this is not a matter of me trying to deter people from going to this promotion. As Rick knows, I have a couple of very close friends/contacts in New Mexico. I was told the following.

    I think they have changed this, so that now seeing a queen of hearts gets you into a drawing and 21 people throughout the month are drawn to play at a table with these special rules.
     
  11. mociferous

    mociferous Member

    Friends in New Mexico

    Thanks for all the input. And to think I used to think I was a math person! The Casino is Isleta, but this is not the Queen of Hearts promotion. They had a "secret" one known to VERY few that paid $100/suited blackjack, as long as you bet at least $5. In the four hours my husband played and the four hours we played together, we got 8 of them. Our table got 19 (7 people playing) and 20 when my husband played alone (without me--also 7 playing). There were six shuffled decks with 5/6 penetration. Bradley, you may have friends here, but not very good ones if they didn't tell you about this one! TXTourPlayer--I'm amazed how your finger is on the pulse! If you have any connections to Isleta, tell them to bring back the blackjack tournaments!! We haven't been there in 3 years because there are not any tournaments. Thanks again, guys.
     
  12. Here is the other part of that same communication..

    No, they are still good friends indeed. What I didn't share earlier was the more personal note from the same E-mail sent by them of....

    It actually came up while I was out of town. ..........

    Perhaps you are your wife should become my good friends in addition to or instead of! ;) :D :)
     
  13. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    Wow!

    Wow! And I don't wow a lot.

    What a great opportunity, hopefully someone else benefited from it. Knowing about it in the right time was worth a lot of money.
    How much? Let’s see.
    Based on TXT info all players in a round that exposes a Queen of hearts qualify for promo benefits. Nonbusting losing hands push and winning hands win two to one, plus extra pay on blackjack.

    The strategy would be to play maximum bets on all seats (I assume seven spots). Until Queen of hearts shows up in the round for close decision hit instead of standing if busted hand with the Queen counts for the promotion. In rounds with the Queen exposed never bust and double and split as much as possible.
    Knowing that the Queen will show affords edge of about 70% but sometimes you would not know it until the last card of the round so conservative edge per round with the Queen is at least 60%.

    For seven hands of $500 that makes it $2,100 profit per round. Using about 22 cards per round would have a 40% chance of activating the promo in each round.

    With a fast dealer it was worth more than quarter million dollars for one evening playing one table alone.

    Bring back this promotion!

    S. Yama
     
  14. TXtourplayer

    TXtourplayer Executive Member

    March Casino Player

    I just read about this promo in this months Casino Player magazine, page 40, bottom left hand corner. It has the picture of the Hooters girl on the cover.
     
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2006
  15. No wonder that you noticed the issue.

    But I am surprised that you got past the cover. What were you expecting inside? A centerfold spread?
     
  16. tirle_bj

    tirle_bj Member

    Final Formula

    Arlalik and I just conclude the formula for Probability of getting suited BJ for any number of decks.
    Here it is:

    P = 8N / 13(52N-1);
    Now the adds are: 13(52N-1) / 8N, where N is Number of decks.
     
  17. TXtourplayer

    TXtourplayer Executive Member

    Private Hooter girl

    Bradley, I just sent you your own private Hooter girl last night. Not counting the 20 or so I've sent you before, don't get greedy...LOL.
     
  18. The truth is.

    It is more like I am jealous. Of you! You get them all! :p
     
  19. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Working formula

    Nice, very nice. Job well done. I tried it and it works.
     
  20. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    good thread

    I like how this thread meanders from seemingly innocuous questions to general and specific answers with some personal insides and humor; also there was place for finding and sharing some unusual opportunities and wonderful analysis (tirle and Arlalik’s formula).

    S. Yama
     

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