Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by BughouseMaster, Dec 14, 2019.
Happy to say that I won 1st tonight! A cool $15K
Congratulations! Any other BJT members place?
Moses came in 2nd
Good job Moses
Bravo to both !
Do we know how many rounds they had to "fight" through ? How many entrants ?
And here's the proof
Oh! Moses got 2nd? Had no clue... is he also on here? Yeah it was me and him at the end only after everyone busted themselves! Final table dealer was so hot, so I let everyone bust themselves out! Normally I go all-in after button passes me, but this time I went minimum !
After about hand 8 there were only 3 out of the 7 of us left! After hand 7 there were just 4 of us remaining... very hot dealer.
The last hand I had a huge advantage. I had 9800, 2nd (Moses?) had exactly half that and immediately went all in ignoring the "Secret Bet" deal.... so I held 5000 and felt pretty damn good about my chances! He had to act first and had SOFT 18, I had hard 18 against dealer 10. He hit and got a 3! Making me consider doubling bec I lose if dealer has 9 or 10 in the hole! But....... just stood and dealer ended up busting and think I did the right move since only 2 cards would make me lose, correct?
You made a good bet and the right play. You bet enough to cover his blackjack but not enough to give up winning if you lose against his push. Taking a card would have been a huge mistake.
You were on the right track in looking at which dealer totals would beat you. Only a dealer 19 or 20 would beat you outright. A dealer 18 would leave you in a tie which would probably have resulted in some kind of playoff. A dealer 17, 21 or bust and you win.
Your thinking was a little bit off in thinking that only 2 cards could beat you. There are many ways in which the dealer can reach each outcome when showing a T. What you need to know are the probabilities that the dealer will reach each total from a T. Without knowing them (and I don't off the top of my head) you could still arrive at the right decision by simply reasoning that by taking a card, you have a very high probability of busting (10 out of 13) leaving Moses only needing to win his 21 (very high probability). You would have decreased your chances of winning substantially.
Finally, doubling would have been slightly worse than hitting because you would then give up the low in the case that you lose and Moses pushes. Because Moses did not have the high over you, there was no reason whatsoever to add to your bet by doubling.
A quick simulation shows that you had only a 22% chance of winning or tieing if you had hit. By standing you had a 51% change of winning or tieing. Here is the breakdown of outcomes for standing on your 18 for a 62.5 million round simulation:
Finishes 1: 30,715,097/62,524,819 = 49.1246% Standard Error: 0.006322%
Ties for 1: 7,518,349/62,524,819 = 12.0246% Standard Error: 0.004113%
Finishes 2: 24,291,373/62,524,819 = 38.8508% Standard Error: 0.006164%
Reaches goal: 38,233,446/62,524,819 = 61.1492% Standard Error: 0.006164%
Finishes 1: 24,291,373/62,524,819 = 38.8508% Standard Error: 0.006164%
Ties for 1: 7,518,349/62,524,819 = 12.0246% Standard Error: 0.004113%
Finishes 2: 30,715,097/62,524,819 = 49.1246% Standard Error: 0.006322%
Reaches goal: 31,809,722/62,524,819 = 50.8754% Standard Error: 0.006322%
These results compare well with this table of dealer outcomes:
It turns out that, once he got his 21, Moses had a substantial advantage over you.
WOW! Gronbog, thank you very much for that simulation and information. I was pretty sure I made the right bet...
"You bet enough to cover his blackjack but not enough to give up winning if you lose against his push."
hmm.... but I dont think I'm supposed to calculate if I have enough chips in a win/loss (or flip) scenario since the law of likely outcomes happens the majority of the time, right? If 4900 was not my best bet (keeping exactly 100 more than him if dealer wins), then what is? I also love my 4900 bet because had he BLACKJACKED, I'd still be able to double using Curts Revenge and end up winning by exactly 100! I really think 4900 was my best bet in this final hand scenario since even on a push by him and a lose by me I'd still have 100 more than him!
Yes, sir! 12 hands only for each round, so super quick! I met Doc last month but didn't see this time around! It was a much smaller turnout than usual but nice they still guarantee the pot! At $100 each, I don't think they had 250 people buy-in and rebuy or if they did it was barely met.... I'll definitely be showing up there more often now that I know I can win it!
I think you misunderstood me. I was saying that you made a good bet for both of the reason's stated. My assessment was based on blackjack paying the normal 3/2. However, your reference to Curt's Revenge suggests to me that blackjack was paying 2/1 in this event. With that in mind here's what we know:
You had 9800 and you originally said that you "held 5000", meaning you bet 4800. Now you're saying you bet 4900. Your bet of 4900 has the problem that if you lose while Moses pushes you end up in a tie with him. If Moses gets a 2/1 blackjack on his all-in bet of 4900, he ends up with 14700 and you can still tie with him just by winning your hand or you can double for less (Curt's Revenge) for the win. With a bet of a little less than 4900 (4800 would do but any bet between 2451 and 4899 is equivalent) you don't expose yourself to his possible push and you can still use Curt's Revenge for the win if he gets a blackjack. So the question becomes whether the value of being able to tie against his blackjack with a win is worth the exposure to his possible push?
According to Wong (Table 4, Page 131) one player loses while the other pushes about 5% of the time. The probability of Moses getting a blackjack while you win is very roughly 4.5% x 43% or about 1.9%. You're exposing yourself to a possible negative outcome which is more than twice as likely as the positive outcome which balances it. For this reason I would have bet a little less than 4900.
The common rule of thumb which is to bet your lead minus a chip would have gotten us there much more quickly and easily than all of this!
I'm sorry, but I cant recall for certain if I bet 4800 or 4900 but I know for certain I did keep 5000 since I wanted to win by 100 had the dealer beat us both. Lets just say I doubled Moses up in chips, having a total of 9800 chips on last hand.... wouldn't my best bet still have been 4800 (keeping 5000 unbet) and succumb to the fact that he'd beat me by 100 had he BJ even if I win my Curts Revenge double? (14700 vs 14600) Otherwise if I bet the 4900 and dealer beats only me but Moses beats dealer, we'd have the same amount of chips @ 4900 and if my Curts Revenge double goes thru against a natural I'd edge Moses out by 100 (14800-14700). So, not sure if a bet of 4900 or 4800 is better bec of the above possible scenarios.
I did meet 2 real cool dudes who were both in the semis with me and spoke with both of them for quite sometime after the tourney and they watched me at the final table so maybe 1 of them can recall how much I bet ! Juan? Jayrold? Feel free to chime in ^_^
(I do believe my lead minus a chip was what I bet)
Yes. I was saying that I thought that 4800 would be a better bet than 4900 in that situation. Even if Moses got a 2/1 blackjack you would still be able to double for enough to beat him.
How do we figure out what % chance edge I had prior to hand 12 being dealt? I think I've gotta be at least an 80% favorite no?
Everything would have been much easier if you had just one more chip. You would then have been in a position where you could have bet the same as Moses (4900) and had his bet covered high and low (including his possible 2/1 blackjack). The only way he could beat you then would be for him to win his hand while you lose yours. There would be no complications arising from possibly ending up in a tie. This would have been the classic "full swing" scenario and, according to Wong (Table 4, page 131), you would have been an 88% favorite. I'm not sure if that's with both players using basic strategy or whether optimal correlation strategy is taken into account for both players.
As we have seen, there are many complications arising from the fact that you started with exactly twice as many chips as Moses. Depending on your bet, complications are then added due to possible ties or the possible use of Curt's Revenge in the case that Moses scores a 2/1 blackjack. Your initial advantage would depend on what your bet was in response to his all-in bet of 4900.
The way to get exact figures would be for me to generate the optimal playing strategies for bets of 4900 and somewhere between 2451-4799 and then to run simulations for each. No one has proposed any alternate bets and I'm pretty sure that one of those two is optimal (although Ken says there's always a better bet ).
Wow! So had I had 9900 then I would've been an 88% fav going into the hand........ so my initial estimation of 80% should be around right since I had 9800 instead.
Looking forward to defend my title this weekend & seeing my semifinal competitors and now friends, Jayrold & Juan, again!
Anyone got a report on who was at the final table in the Jan 18 Hard Rock BJT event?
only one I know was Moses he came in 3rd,,,,..... I still played two rounds ...fun,,,,, did win a little on slots
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