3 card poker last hand

Discussion in '3-Card Poker Tournament Strategy' started by hopinglarry, Oct 30, 2013.

  1. hopinglarry

    hopinglarry Active Member

    I was thinking that we might discuss a strategy for the last hand at 3 card.

    I got the following info from the Wizard's sitehttp://wizardofodds.com/games/three-card-poker/ and his ask the wizard section

    Probabilities:
    SF .002172
    3K .002353
    ST .032579
    FL .049593
    Pair .169412
    Total .256109
    Ace .1737557
    King .1466063
    Queen .119457
    Total .695928
    Dealer not Qualify .304072

    You need a little more than 1/2 the K highs to get sort of an average hand. That is about K9 as a guess.
    From another thread Ken's post that playing blind on Ante and play wins at least one bet about .54338 of the time. This means you actually win the hand when dealer qualifies (when playing blind) about .239308 of the time.

    An ante bonus of 5-4-1 and PP as 40-30-6-3-1 which I think are probably the most overall common pay tables. I think you get paid on an ante bonus even if dealer does not qualify.

    With my limited experience (3 tournaments), I would guess that if anyone at the table gets a Straight or higher on the last hand, they will probably win the table. I think the Ante Bonus and PP will be sufficient unless the person bet very low.

    Situations we might look at:
    Leader on the bubble with various lead amounts (less than max ante bet, more than max ante bet). Should they play the hand with less than a Q?

    Leader not on bubble playing after the closer people. One basically goes high and the other takes what amounts to the low if leader matches the one that went high.

    Not the leader on the bubble or at least betting before leader. You probably don't have much choice except shoving the money out and hoping you get lucky on the deal.

    I have no doubt that y'all can think of other scenarios, so jump in and give us all some direction for tournaments now and in the future.
     
    gronbog likes this.
  2. gronbog

    gronbog Top Member

    I've never played this game, in a tournament or otherwise, although tournament events do pop up in my area once in a while. So I hope this thread gets some attention!

    Given the limited number of decisions to made in this game (what and how much to bet on and whether to play or fold), I think this would be an easy sim to implement, so I think I'll go ahead and do that in the mean time.
     

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