A New Magic Number

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by BlueLight, Feb 19, 2016.

  1. BlueLight

    BlueLight Active Member

    In Ken Smith's e-book "How To Win More Blackjack Tournaments" he talks about Magic Numbers. These numbers are ratios of your lead compared to a max bet. With a max bet of 200 and a minimum bet of 5.

    It says (ignoring the surrender magic numbers) and having a lead of 2/3 max bet (rounded up slightly) or more than, a bet of (max bet) + (a fraction of a chip) - (half your lead) will give you a the high and the low on a simple bet and the high and the low in a double/double scenario. For example:

    You.........535
    BR2........400

    Here you have a lead of 135 or 135/200 = .675 which is slightly more than 2/3 max bet lead.
    Your bet is computed thus 200 - 135/2 = 200 - 67.5 = 132.5
    Now by adding a fraction of a chip your bet is 135.

    .............BkRll.......Bet.......... 1xWin..........1xLose
    You.......535.........135............670...............400
    BR2......400........200...........600...............200


    For the double/double scenario

    .............BkRll.........DblBet..........2xWin.........2xLose
    You.......535.............270................805............265
    BR2......400.............400...............800................0

    In fact after you double and bust you still have the low even if BR2 does not double.

    THE NEW MAGIC NUMBER if your lead is 1.5Xmax bet + 1 chip. Example as follows:

    BR2.........400
    You.........400 + 1.5(200) + 5 = 705

    Now by betting 1/2 max bet (100) you can lose your hand and even if BR2 wins his hand you still win the round. If BR2 gets a winning double bet then all you have to do is win your hand without having to double. You do not have to double a hard 19. Example below.

    BR2...........400........200....Wins...=>.....600
    You............705.........100....Lose....=>.....605

    BR2...........400........200+200......Wins...=>.....800
    You............705.............100...........Wins...=>.....805

    I got this new magic number idea when I saw the following situation by 2 players.
    Max Bet = 2500 Min Bet = 25 The situation was:

    ...............BkRll
    BR2........11200
    BR1........16000

    Here the chip lead is 4800, not quite a double max bet. 4800/2500 = 1.92 which is more than 1.5

    The betting was :

    .................BkRll.........Bet
    BR2..........11200.......2500
    BR1..........16000.......2500

    It seems that when a Low bankroll bets the max into your High bankroll that a bet of a max bet is appropriate with some players. In fact before seeing this hand, I likely would have done the same.

    The cards and play was as follows:

    ..................BkRll..........Bet.............Cards
    BR2..........11200.........2500............10+9 = 19 stands
    BR1..........16000.........2500............10+4 = 14 busts
    Dealer..................................................9

    BR2 considers doubling for a little while since the dealer has a possible 19 also. However he is too close to busting and hopes for the full swing instead.
    BR1 takes a hit and busts.
    The dealer turns over another 9 for 18 and BR2 wins the round 13700 to 13500.

    With a bet of 1/2 max bet (1250) by BR1 the situation would have been as follows:

    ..................BkRll.............Bet.............Cards
    BR2...........11200............2500...........10+9 = 19 stands => wins = 13700
    BR1............16000...........1250............10+4 = 14 Hits => busts = 14750 WINS Round

    BR2 would have had to double on the hard 19 and hope that he wins the hand and BR1 loses (or pushes) the hand.
    With a lead of 4800 (1.92 max bet lead) a bet of 225 to 2275 gives BR1 the Round WIN if he suffers a full swing to BR2. BR1 also wins if he only wins his hand and BR2 wins a double max bet.
    For a max bet of 2500 you need a lead of 1.5(2500) + 25 = 3775 for this new magic number to work.

    ...................................................BlueLight
     
    gronbog and KenSmith like this.

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