Any really good simulation software?

Discussion in 'Other Games Events' started by toolman1, Dec 7, 2005.

  1. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    I'm trying to develop a "no brainer" BJ playing strategy to be used for racking up playing time for comps while reducing the house edge below the half percent level. By "no brainer" I mean not having to think past basic strategy which is second nature to me. I'm not so optimistic that it can be profitable, just trying to keep losses to a absolute minimum. I'm also thinking that I could switch to this "no brainer" system in mid-stream if I detect heat. In other words, I want to look like a happy gambler to the suits. A gambler who knows most of basic strategy but plays hunches at times. You know, the typical cat and mouse game we all play.

    I'm trying to find a simulation software package that allows me to think "out of the box". Everything I've come accross restricts one's simulation to things like:
    Which counting method do you want to use?
    Which basic strategy table do you want to use?
    How many players at the table?
    How many decks?
    etc., etc., etc.

    Now that's all fine if all you want to do is play "what if". All you're really doing is duplicating what someone has already done. What I need is something more versitle. Something where I can create. I want to do all of the above plus experiment with things like:
    Simulate leaving a table at a time when my losses or gains reach a certain level.
    Simulate leaving a table when a certain sequence of events occur.
    Simulate leaving a table if I win a certain number of hands in a row.
    Simulate leaving a table if the dealer wins a certain number of hands in a row.
    Switch basic strategy tables if a predetermined sequence of events occurs.
    etc., etc., etc.

    I have looked at several software packages including "Blackjack 678" without success. I need simulation software that is very, very versitle so I can invent, not just duplicate others mistakes. Can anyone help?
     
  2. Count de McArds

    Count de McArds New Member

    No need for software

    Toolman1,

    You don’t need simulation software to accomplish what you want to do – if I understand your goal correctly. I read your objective, as described in your first paragraph, which stated simply, is to come up with a strategy that minimizes the house edge while not counting (or using other AP techniques) – and earn comps. You say that basic strategy is “second nature” to you. That is all you have to do. Simulations not required! All of the things you want to “simulate” leaving a table……will not change that house edge in the long run. The house edge with basic strategy for any game is readily available from a number of sources including the sister site of this one. I have no idea why you would want to “switch basic strategy tables” if a number predetermined number of sequence of events occurred – given you are not counting (presumes that the events are not counting related). Quite simply, to accomplish your objective, you just need to randomly bet within a range that is comfortable to you and your bankroll, or use a limited, but consistent (positive or negative) progression. That will identify you as a “typical” (happy) gambler to “the suits”. In the long run, using the aforementioned, you will lose, on the average, at the minimum house edge for that game – given you are playing the proper basic strategy for that game. It sounds to me that like your objective should be to learn/use techniques to increase your average bet rating – given it is not to make money using counting or other AP techniques.

    The Count
     
  3. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Excelent points

    Count de McArds:

    Thanks for the response. Your points are well taken and without doubt accurate. But I'm trying to think "out of the box". I believe there are things about the game that remain undiscovered. Or if they have been discovered, nobody is talking - as Dr. Thorp should have kept his mouth shut when everyone thought BJ cannot be beaten.

    Without a very flexible simulation program that allows for imagination my experiments are limited. Example: I have played over 5,000 hands (over a several week period) on my computer to test just one theory. The results are encouraging with a house edge of just 0.07% as compared to the norm of 0.5%. However, as you know, 5,000 hands is not nearly enough to draw a solid conclusion. The proper simulation program would give me the results I need and allow me to tweak my theory accordingly.

    Your interpretation of why I want what I want is pretty accurate but let me clarify a little. I want something to use when I don't feel like thinking, when I'm engrossed in conversation with other players or suites, when I need some camouflage, or when I just want to bring my "rating" up for comp purposes by flat betting larger amounts than I normally bet.

    You showed great imagination when picking your handle for this site -"Count de McArds". I also want something out of the norm, something different, something I can call my own. I'm not trying to reinvent the wheel - just trying to add a spoke or two. Maybe I will not succeed. Maybe I'm just twilling my thumbs and not getting anywhere. But I have to try.
     
  4. Count de McArds

    Count de McArds New Member

    Best of "Luck" in your "Statistical" Search

    Best of luck in your endevors, Toolman1, as this has been attempted by many and small improvements over basic strategy have actually been achieved with bet variation based on events by a few. However, it has been shown that such "events" are statistically corelated to a "count" which, when used directly to determine bet size (or an exit point with a flat bet - i.e. "Wonging out" or a form of "depth charging" in selected games), would have had a much greater positive impact on one's bankroll. I am not saying a legitimate method does not exist (and there are more numerous scams, and "abreviated" or simplifed counting techniques being hawked out there than I care to "count"), but they are all likely to be inferior to any straight counting technique or other AP, and unlikely to over come "the house edge". Your second post described a somewhat different objective of the "strategy" you are seeking.

    The Count
     
  5. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    No question about best way to play

    Count de McArds:

    No question that the only proven way to overcome the house advantage is a straight counting technique or other AP - that's a given. But as you now know, I have that and am now looking for something to use when my brain gets tired (or when brain farts occur as some people say) etc. and an alternative "no brainer" would be handy to use for a while. As for those other products, well you know what they say - If it sounds to good to be true, it usually is.

    Well if I can't find software I will attempt using Excel spreadsheet. It might work but that's a last resort.

    Good talking to you Count. Maybe we can meet up at one of the GRAND CASINO TUNIA's $150,000 tournament held in "THE GREAT AND SOVEREIGN STATE OF MISSISSIPPI":D . Take care and good luck at the tables.
     
  6. Springbac

    Springbac Member

    Toolman, are you familiar with Statistical Blackjack Analyzer to run simulations real quickly??
     
  7. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Not familar

    Springbac, I'm not familiar with "Statistical Blackjack Analyzer". Do you know the author? Where can I look into it? Any other info would be appreciated.

    I just started looking into "Casino Verite CVData". They call it an "advanced a simulator". Looks promising. I downloaded a demo, we'll see. In the meantime any info on your suggestion, again, will be appreciated.

    PS: Tomorrow is snow removal day. Got about 8". May not be on the INTERNET much. All you good ol' boys better be carefully if you come up north for a WSOB satellite.:laugh:
     
  8. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    SBA is written by Karel Janecek.
    You can find it at http://www.sba21.com

    I really should sell this product on my site. I use it for most of my simulation needs. However, it won't do what you are looking for toolman.
     
  9. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Casino Verite looks impressive

    I downloaded a demo of Casino Verite's CVData simulator and I must say I am impressed. It can do much, although not all, of what I'm looking for plus a whole lot more. It's easy to use, incredibly flexable and very fast. I ran a simulation of 250 million hands in just a few minutes (didn't actual time it exactly). The simulation I ran was relative simple so I'm guessing a more complex one would take a little longer. Cost is compriable to "Statistical Blackjack Analyzer" - $140.

    From looking at "SBA"'s web site, it looks to me like Casino Verite's product may be more comprehensive. Can't tell for sure without many hours of use with both products.

    Ken Smith:
    It looks to me like you might want to take a look at Casino Verite's CVData simulator for selling it on your website. I don't think customers would be disappointed. You can download a demo at qfit.com The demo is the actual product with cards altered to give inaccurate results.

    While I'm on the subject of software, bought both "Blackjack 678" and "Casino Verite Blackjack" through your other website a while back. Although "Blackjack 678" has some limited simulation capabilities, I found it amaturish and somewhat hard to use. Many of their on screen instructions (I can't seem to get rid of them) are irrating and cover selection boxes. "Casino Verite Blackjack" on the other hand was professional, easy to use and contains tournament play practice. Now this is just my opinion, but I would give "Blackjack 678" the old heave-ho. I'm going to delete it from my computer - no sense in wasting disk space.

    PS: This is not spam.:laugh: I'm not making any money on these products.
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2005

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