Bet Half or All?

[Jackaroo]

(See my posting on the “Incredible plays” thread in the Blackjack Tournaments (Land Based Casinos forum for tournament details)

At a semi-final table in the Silverton last Sunday, I needed a max bet win on the next-to- last hand to be in contention on the final hand. My bankroll was 480, twenty dollars shy of the 500 max. I intended to have it all working on the hand. Going in I bet 240 (half the bankroll), thinking I needed to protect against not being able to split a pair. I was dealt a hard 13; dealer had 10. I doubled down, busting out with a 9. As the hand played out, the result would have been the same had I bet it all to begin with.

To date I have played in 6 mini tournaments, comprising 8 rounds of play, beginning in March of this year. This is the third time I have been in this situation with 1 or 2 hands remaining.

My question is what are the ramifications of betting half or everything/the max in a situation like this?

--jr

 

[Hollywood]

hey jr --

real nice meeting you this week! glad to hear your success story with the silverton; what a great little tourney that is.

if you absolutely NEED the max bet to win/be in contention, than worrying about not being able to split aces (like what happened to Ken at the final table of the WSoBJ) should not be a factor in your bet. Push it all out there if that's what you need; if you've got significant excess chips above the max bet, and will not be underbetting what you need to win in order to be in contention, then bet only half. Splitting & using other tourney tricks like Curt's Revenge can only be optimally employed if you've got the chips! "When in doubt, push it out"

But i think the real question here is your definition of the "need" to win the max bet in the second-to-last hand. Would winning a max bet put you in BR1
only if others LOSE their bets? Something that will only happen 12% of the time. In many situations, its better to shoot for BR2 in a round where 2 advance (as I believe the Silverton semis are set up), especially if this will free you up for doubles/splits. But if shooting for BR2 STILL means betting close to all your chips, then again -- I'd just push it out.

-dave.

 

[Jackaroo]

I was shooting for BR2

Hey, Dave. Great to meet and talk with you too.

At this stage of my tournament playing I haven't developed the skill of accurately counting the chips so when I say I NEED to make a max bet, it is obvious that I am way behind and must win it to have a chance on the last hand. This is especially true when there is time pressure. I got called for time on the second-from-last hand in the quarterfinal leading up to this table, but was still allowed to make the bet.

I kind of figured betting it all was the way to go at the time. It's what I had done on previous occasions, but I remembered reading somewhere in these posts about betting only half to keep your options open. Thanks for the advice, I hadn't known the 12% figure before.

--Jack

 

[S. Yama]

My bankroll was 480, ten dollars shy of the 500 max. I intended to have it all working on the hand. Going in I bet 240 (half the bankroll), thinking I needed to protect against not being able to split a pair.
--jr

Jackaroo,
In this particular case you should not be concerned about not being able to split.
If you are not allowed to split pairs you lose 0.42% of your overall EV.
For bj tournament purposes it is more meaningful to know the percentages of hands won and lost. When doubling after split is not allowed, or you don’t have funds to double after split, basic strategy player splits only 2.5% of the time.
Many of the bs splits are of defensive nature, creating one winning hand and one losing hand. These splits are better plays as on average they are less costly than playing just one hand. However, number of rounds where player wins both split hands and would not win his hand without splitting is insignificant.
If your bankroll is less than maximum bet and you need to win more than one hand always bet all of your money.

Decisions whether to bet half of your money or make max bet become more difficult and more complicated when your bankroll is smaller than, but close to, twice the maximum bet. In that instance chance of receiving a blackjack takes precedence. You need to check some ranges of possible bankrolls. Bet max if receiving a blackjack takes you ahead of your opponent pushing or losing his (assumed) bet, or if getting a blackjack and your opponent wining his bet decreases gap between the bankrolls to less than one and half maximum bet -- and betting exactly half of your bankroll would not achieve it.

S. Yama

 

[Jackaroo]

Decisions whether to bet half of your money or make max bet become more difficult...

Thanks Yama, for getting me on the right track.

After re-reading the posts where the subject of betting half was discussed (mostly on the GSN episode analysis) I can see that those cases were more complicated than the relatively simple situation I faced.

One thing I've found out after playing the few minis I have so far is that you don't have a lot of time to figure out what to do and it's impossible to try and run thru everything you've read and try to pick out what might apply. I believe you need to get to a point, like knowing basic strategy, where you just act without a lot of mental effort.

As Ken has said, there's no substitute for experience at the table.

--jr

 

[instagator]

Bet half

JR
Thanks for the post and thanks to Hollywood and Yama for the advice. I played that stategy several times protecting for a split and did get the BJ. Seeing Yama's numbers changed my misconception of how to play that situation. Starting with Outback, I learned more the next three days than in the past 10 years. Thanks to everone.
I'm overdue to visit my house in Ledyard. Are there any BJ tournaments being scheduled at Foxwoods or M.S.?
Hey by the way I saw the airing of MDBJI for the first time on Travel Channel. Blair to an excellent commentary after he was eliminated. They should use him on the MDBJII airing.
Hollywood- Is Blair a better poker or BJ player? Nice job at the Horseshoe, Blair.

IG

 

[Moses]

Put It All In Play

If you need your bankroll in play, bet it as an original bet. If not, you are stuck with having to double a winning hand or a hard hand.

 

[Hollywood]

Hollywood- Is Blair a better poker or BJ player? Nice job at the Horseshoe, Blair.

Something probably only Blair himself would know the answer to! Personally, after years of devotion to the game of blackjack & all its many beautiful forms, I'm having a torrid love affair with poker. My monetary gain$$$ were higher with blackjack, though I consider myself a very strong poker player. I think the reason is that there is a much smaller field of blackjack players who REALLY know what they're doing, vs. many many many excellent poker players. So i rank myself in the top few % of blackjack players, but even with some serious poker chops, I'd be hard-pressed to say I was even in the top 15% of that field.

Apples and oranges, baby!

-hollywood dave.