BJT Falls View, Sept.1

Discussion in 'Blackjack Events (Canada)' started by dalexy2kbj, Sep 2, 2010.

  1. dalexy2kbj

    dalexy2kbj Member

    Let talk about it, while fresh. Nice tournament, but I like straight BJ better. Get to semifinal only because played last hand opposite Wong's ex.44 being BR1 bet min in the crowd, even though knew the right move, but feel differently(good point for discussion, what is better: play right and looose, or play in according to intuition and win ?). For straight BJ would never ask this question, in long run statistic always win , but here is one hand and one opportunity. In semi-final played straight BJ, counting, last 4 hand everybody bet max with double regardless(no brainer), won only because of luck(my doubles were basic, while other doubled on anything). Final table winner just was lucky winning while other were loosing(dealer was hot). As a result he won tournament 3-4 hands before the last. In such short run, I can not believe that same person can get to the final table periodically, with such luck better play straight BJ :). Proove ? Played in Rama weekend before the tournament: first shoe +17 hands and it ended on final table in FallsView :confused: You have to be so LUCKY to pass through the first 2 rounds, that it can't be repeated twice in decade, am I wrong ? Thanks. P.S. for last two decades developing analytical software(math.statistic heavily used)
  2. gronbog

    gronbog Top Member

    First of all, it's nice to see that someone from here other than me played this tournament. I understand that non-locals have had difficulty getting in because they seem to insist on PAC membership before taking your registration.

    As for your question about the frequency of making the final table, by random chance you have a 2/7 * 1/7 = 2/49 chance of making the final table. Add skill and experience to the mix and those who have them do better. My own experience is 10 semi final appearances and 2 final tables ($25,000 + $2500) to show for 20 tournament entries (including rebuys) which is 3.5/7 * 1/5 = 3.5/35 or 1/10 over the past 5 years. Both are much better than the odds of being +17 on one shoe of normal play!

    Each tournament is different and requires a different approach. In this one, the max bet ($500) is low compared to the bank roll ($2000), so you see a lot of aggressive betting. Sometimes the ploppies get lucky and you have to go after them or they don't and things are easier. But that's where the skillz come into play -- correlation, opposite betting and curt's revenge are quite effective in this tournament since the ploppies either coast when ahead or keep bombing away, they almost always bet big when behind, and they almost never cover your max bet double down on the final few hands. Knowing your opponents gives you even more of an advantage.

    As for intuition vs statistical play, why abandon statistics in tournament play? Sure you don't know what might happen in a few short hands, but you know what's most likely to happen. The differences in percentage for different tournament plays are generally much larger than differences in basic strategy plays so I think it's even more important to make the right play in tournament situations.

    However, all that being said, the main reason I play this tournament (and others) is that it's FUN! A completely different way to play the game we all love and to meet other folks with the same passion. I had the pleasure of meeting several folks from here in Sault Ste Marie last June and hope to meet many more. If you're going to be at the next Niagara Fallsview tournament on Nov 10, let me know and we can discuss things over a cold one!
  3. dalexy2kbj

    dalexy2kbj Member

    Completly agree: fun and company of BJ lovers are priceless! As a dealer in Rama said to big looser: "You pay for entertainment, winning is a bonus." I probably exaggerated about decade,but as you said 2 finals in 5 years is pretty close;)(~4% vs. 10% in your case and 4 tounament/year still shows, that tournament money winning is a bonus, especially if it demands long travel). But with auto shuffle-machines coming (in FallView you can play only $50 min with normal shoe) it's going to be the only opportunity to play BJ in the future, so long life for BJ tournaments! Sure I'going to be there in November and looking forward to talk to you too. Thanks.
  4. LeftNut

    LeftNut Top Member

    Fallsview not only insists on membership, they insist that you physically hold a membership card as well. Therefore, it means two trips for those of us who might be interested in attending. I'd go to that one if it wasn't for that ignorant rule. It's no farther for me than Ignace and a LOT less than Meskwaki (Iowa). But I most certainly will not make such a round trip drive twice simply because some knucklehead thought that rule was a great idea.

    I love playing against those who believe that BJT's are all luck (poker players are the best for holding that opinion). When they're sitting there after the last hand with a stunned look because some BJT assassin pulled a slick move and sent them packing, I love it even more! :D
  5. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    I remember this being an issue when I first attended a Fallsview event, but a host was able to make this work for me without previously having a players card. (This is from several years back though.)

    It may be worthwhile to try again and see if you can talk them out of this requirement. Of course, once you make the trip once this problem goes away. :D
  6. dalexy2kbj

    dalexy2kbj Member

    It’s pretty quiet thread. Does somebody play bj seriously in this country :cool: ? Going to play 5 p.m. session in FVC the day after tomorrow. Does anybody want to talk about bj theory ;) ? Don’t think, registration requirement is very big issue, you can get membership in 2 minutes and considering the fact, that usually there are free spaces in this tournament, you can get membership and reserve a place in the tournament just before registration starts(12 P.M.)
  7. gronbog

    gronbog Top Member

    I'll be there as well (and as usual). I usually try to get into the 3pm session so that I have a shot at a rebuy if I don't get through the first time.

    With respect to registration, some of the folks here would be travelling a fair distance and, so, they can't just show up and hope that there are still spots remaining. Other casinos will sometimes register you for a tournament in advance with the condition that you get a players card when you arrive. The Fallsview apparently has not been willing to do this, although Ken was apparently successful with some persistence.

    If you'll be there, perhaps we'll run into one another. I'll wear a Red Hat golf shirt to make it easier for you :)
  8. gronbog

    gronbog Top Member

    Heh. Now that I've re-read your initial post, I'm wondering if we've already met. At my first round table, the fellow to my right did exactly this and I remember discussing it with him immediately afterward. The table lost and he advanced, just as you describe.
  9. dalexy2kbj

    dalexy2kbj Member

    Think, yes. If it was you, who talked about percentage advantage for right play after last hand. I remember, that I was very surprised to hear exact figure from random person sitting to my left:D (based on my observation majority didn't bothered themselves with such things like counting or strategy, even though tournament had good penetration and one shuffle, at least). Yeah, it a small world(what the odds), I can bet :) on it, that it was you, because as I've mentioned in my first post and taking described comment into consideration, probably you are the another person in this country who study this game ;) Frankly speaking, I was out of small chips and got change to make exact bet, but ... then allowed just took low(quite correct behavior for not-experienced player:)), won't do it again though. Wong's strategy book is good(for beginning, bought it right before tournament), but prefer to analyse and emulate different situation myself to be absolutely sure about right play, as I did with Griffin's book for straight bj. Wong's book arguably one of the best, but very small number of examples for FVC situation and almost no math to support. I will be nice to see you on Wed. Good luck !
  10. gronbog

    gronbog Top Member

    I'm now almost certain that is was me to your left that day. Yes, it is a small world.

    I recall that you had the table high and low with your minimum bet, but I believe you could have also covered a few double downs without further risk by betting a little more. I recall pointing this out to you afterward and quoting some ball-park probabilities.

    I don't know why I do that. I sometimes feel compelled to educate my opponents :rolleyes:

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