Boycot Bet21

Discussion in 'Blackjack Events (Online Casinos)' started by fgk42, Mar 20, 2007.

  1. London Colin

    London Colin Top Member

    On the Shoulders of Giants

    Well I was hopeful that you didn't truly believe it, but I was pointing out that it was the natural implication of what you had said (and indeed of your last sentence above). It may seem like splitting hairs, but I think it's important to make clear (to the extent that I shall employ the shouty bold font of doom:) ) - there is no such thing as the trend except after the event. The next shoe remains gloriously unknown and if you've been losing against the current one then the likelihood is that it is now in your favour because the tens haven't been coming out. The last thing you should do is walk away because the trend has been against you!

    I think you're very much in a minority with that opinion.

    According to Peter Griffin, the combined effect of insurance and other strategy gains does not outweigh the gain from betting just one extra unit when the deck is favourable, until the number of unseen cards gets down to 25. With 45 unseen cards you yield .52% from betting, .15% from strategy variations,and .03% from insurance. (I think that those figures are based on a single-deck game and might vary slightly in a shoe game, but I would guess not by much.)
  2. fgk42

    fgk42 New Member

    So Mr. Pane are you telling me that you've NEVER heard of an online site having a 'cooler' or 'killer switch'? Please answer yes or no.

    Mr. Pane you mean YOU wouldn't get pissed if you found out that a casino/tournament/event was rigged?
    Please answer yes or no.

    Once again Mr. Pane please show me where I said, and I quote, " is rigged?".
    No buts Mr. Pane please produce the evidence.

    IF, and I repeat IF, what you highlighted above in true, how is that any different from you publicaly stating that the deposit bonuses will be paid by January 1, 2007, then repeating it 2 months later, then stating it AGAIN for a 3rd time wanting to wager a bet with me about them being paid?

    Who is crying wolf Mr. Pane?

    No Joe, SHAME ON YOU! Mr. Pot!

    PS. So you've had enough time to make 4 different posts but you didn't reply to my taking you up on the bet? Are YOU skirting the issue? :cool:
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2007
  3. Reachy

    Reachy New Member


    Colin, I totally agree with your comments, particularly about trends. If we say the cards are following a particular trend we are in effect saying that they have a pattern and that can't be true in a fair game.

    Interestingly, I remember reading somewhere that the best (and lowest risk) way of introducing card counting into your game is to use the indices before you start to alter your bet spread. This means your mistakes will cost you only a minimum bet and you are less likely to alert "The Man" than if you were to start launching out large bets when the count was good.


  4. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    I don't understand how one would do this. Can you give an example?
  5. Barney Stone

    Barney Stone New Member


    Unfortunate in BJ the worst thing you can go up against is a hot dealer, a dealer that has a hot trend. Every hand draws near 20. These trends can last for hours. For the most part this is a table with no players! A trend is a tendency, and table blackjack is a game that gives tendency for streaks. I think the most important thing at a table is to stay away from a hot dealer, a dealer on a hot trend. It the tables where a choppy trend is active or a table where the cards are yielding to the BS charts its sweet....

    BTW, back to FGKs picking up on a very high % of dealer busting, the trend was to that. If he continued the sample the trend might shift from a +5% to a - 5%
  6. RKuczek

    RKuczek Member


    as far as basic strategy goes, you are both right, London and Barney - basic strategy is based on the proportions for dealt cards and drawn cards that an INFINITE SEQUENCE of hands CONVERGES to - for finite sequences, each finite sequence will have it's own optimal strategy, and sets of advantageous and disadvantageous strategies, WHICH CAN NOT BE DETERMINED IN ADVANCE, basic strategy is very unlikely to be that optimal strategy, unless you are talking about millions of hands - the reason that basic strategy works is that it the strategy for hand play that is MOST likely to be advantageous for any unknown finite sequence, and LEAST likely to be severely disadvantageous for such sequences. That makes it a pretty good strategy for a serious professional advantage player, but it may not be the best strategy for a more casual recreational player, who might want to factor in risk of ruin and other considerations into their playing strategy.
  7. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member


    Unfortunately for us gamblers, the trends or streaks seen in blackjack are always a thing of the past. We have no way of knowing for sure what the next card out of the shoe is.

    Hot tables, hot dealers, hot casinos, hot players... these are all things I've observed in the past.

    That's the same logic as observing the observing the number board of a roulette table to determine if a number or color is due. It's a version of the Gamblers Fallacy.
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2007
  8. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Agree 100%. When the casinos installed tote boards on the roulette tables and later on baccarat, profits went up because it made it easier for the average ploppy to spot a "trend" or something is "due".

    Personally I love people to play trends. Puts more money in the casino's pocket which keeps them open for me. :D
  9. Reachy

    Reachy New Member

    spice of life

    It's been a while since I practiced my CC skills so I've almost completely forgotten "The Illustrious 18". However I believe that, after the insurance bet, varying your play with a 16 vs Dealer 10 is the next most useful BS variation. If the count is 0 or above you stand on 16 vs 10 (I think). Now I think about it the I18 tells you when you should split those 10s as well :eek:

    So in live play you count the cards as usual, maintain a minimum bet throughout, but vary your BS according to the I18 and the count. It's a gentle way of introducing CC into your game since your never going to be risking 10X min bet or whatever spread you need to get an edge, plus your are less likely to alert others that you are counting.

    Has this answered your question?


  10. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Sounds like Ian Anderson's writings. Without referring back to the book, he pushes the idea of selected non Basic Strategy moves to throw off the suites so one looks like a ploppy. I didn't study the part you are referring to because I don't count cards but other parts of his book gave me some interesting insights.
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2007
  11. Barney Stone

    Barney Stone New Member


    You dont care, during regular play, if the dealer is smoking hot? You would just sit down and accept there is no such thing as a trend- give me what you got dealer? Or, if a dealer just whipped out 3 players in fast fashion does that mean sit down dont worry? Not me! If you do choose your tables this way at least it doesnt matter where you sit, just take the first stool:joker:
  12. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

    Actually I Prefer It

    Actually I prefer tables in which the dealer is smoking hot (and I don't mean to look at ;) ). That's because it runs off players. I hate crowded tables. I believe they undermine my advantage. I've played enough blackjack to have seen enough to be comfortable with the concept that a streak, good or bad, can end or reverse itself any time.

    Not only that, one reason that dealer could have been hot is that all the low cards just got dealt out of the shoe and now I have a rich deck to raise into.
  13. Barney Stone

    Barney Stone New Member


    I will only play a 6 deck shoe a couple times per year and only if it cuts under 4th deck.. I will not play a CSM. I dont like to play red blue shufflers but they are OK. So, there are a few differences here that need to be accounted for. 90% of my play is single and double deck. The variance in counts and the lengths between shuffles is much faster. etc etc. BTW, many of the reasons I just listed are why I dont play in vegas often. Vegas and BJ just dont mix anymore. Nice lights, bad BJ.;)
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2007
  14. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

    I Agree...

    It's tough to find good BJ in Vegas, but it's still out there. I don't play CSM's. It's hard to find double deck with playable pen. I actually prefer red blue shufflers to hand shuffle because it moves faster. You can find six deck games with playable pen and minimal heat. I don't get to Vegas often enough to know the ins and outs of the games, though. I'm just relaying what I have seen.

    To be honest since I've started playing tournaments I get bored with live blackjack.
  15. Barney Stone

    Barney Stone New Member

    Very interesting

    You dont count cards? Does this mean you are a pure slave to basic strategy? Isnt this a form of ploppy play?

    Im a little confused as well toolman, you find that most players on a BJ table dont follow BS? Some players have a hard time hitting 16 vs dealer 7, but for most part I find, while playing a substantial amount of table BJ, that most players have a clue about BS. Almost 100% double 10 and 11 against any dealer cards for example.
  16. toolman1

    toolman1 Active Member

    Although I occasionally respond to faulty BJ logic here, I don't normally get into BJ strategy on this forum since this forum is primarily for tournament play. If I wanted to discuss BJ strategy in depth I would do it on Ken's other site. However, I am not a member there so that should tell you something.

    As far as observing "others" at the BJ table, my observation is that less that 1% of BJ players know all of BS. Many know most of it but only a few know all.

    As for when to double on a 10 or 11, that's really basic. But how many know the proper doubling on soft totals? I'll answer that - only a few.

    PS at 8:25 PM: I just noticed you said "but for most part I find, while playing a substantial amount of table BJ, that most players have a clue about BS. Almost 100% double 10 and 11 against any dealer cards for example". The implication by you is that doubling 10 and 11 against anything is the thing to do. Did you get this from Mr. Patrick's book?

    I'll be gone for the rest of the weekend. So if you have any response, I'm sure other members can set the record straight on Basic Strategy.
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2007
  17. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member


    He may not be a card counter but you'd certainly not call toolman a ploppy after watching him play a tournament. I dread the day he and I face each other in a tourney... :yikes:
  18. tgun

    tgun Member


    I like to play at tables with few players when playing against the casino.
    And at tables with non-BS players in tournaments.

    I wish I could play at tournament tables, where I'm the only one using BS.
    You either believe in math or you don't.

    P.S. Who would dd with 10 vs dealer 10?
  19. Rando21

    Rando21 New Member

    Streaks, runs, luck even if you believe in them...none of those things can make you a long term winner at BJ when using only perfect basic stratgey...

    And not a high percent even use perfect BS...

    So in the long term game the casino will win! A 1/2 percent advantage is just that...always with perfect BS...trends will never will lose eventially to at least 1/2 percent disadvantage...

    Only AP can can move you to the positive expectation and that requires all aspects of advanced BS indices plus setting your bet to the count...

    Counting and flat betting still keeps you at or near neg expectation...

    Adding decks, adjusting penetration,CSM are all methods to counter the best few players....for the most part the game is played with so much error that casinos often have more than 5% advantage...

    Not much of this relates to tournament BJ nor the online TBJ discussion....but without verification of a random deal which can easily be verified by independant testers who have access to the deal then these sites are always suspect.

    How often is it normal in a random deal for the dealer to show an ACE up? Thats a known number.

    In every game at this site so far often does the dealer show an ACE up?

    Someone know this number too.

    I selectivly remember a lot of ACES up especially in the first 8 hands.

    SO I would like to be assured that these known numbers match.

    If I owned this site I would want to assure everyone that the numbers matched....of course I mean nearly matched...

    There is no need to cloud this discussion with semantics of statictics...

    Simulations of every possible hand,card, expecation have already been run...and those simulations have been or can be run for every possible deck option incuding shuffel every hand.

    Those poo pooing Freds efforts by claiming small sample and semantics error and then claiming to notice no problems are suffering from the same logic error you ar etrying to use against Fred...You are proving nothing ...only guessing.

    I personally dont think anyone made an effort to write an intelligent program that allows hands to favor certain players and deal crap to other certain players...remember this game cant even deal with my full stack of chips when its a 250 dollar amount.

    The program could certainly and easily deal at a easy, medium , and hard level and the motive has been discussed....a quicker ending game increases rake rate per hour for the site....this makes the site more $$$$ per hour which make a variable income to counter fixed expenses...the motive is strong to have a non random alibet equally unfair non-random deal.

    Easily disproven but only by the site opening up the cards dealt numbers...The key card is ACE.... does Ace come up more often than odds say it should? Next does dealer 7 thru 10 up fall within the known norm?

    Easy proven and confirmed by a people who audit these things every single day in every regulated casino in the world....this system and requirement is missing in this game....

    Thats why I selectivly remember when the dealer gets 6 21's and 2 20's in the firtst 8 hands....

    When I see and remember "enough" of these or near these....then I want assurance that these are normal sequenses and that soon I can expect to get the 8 great hands in a row...

    Anythings Mr Bet 21 ...Im asking you to calm my fears and prove that the numbers and combo's are matched to the norms.

    No one can accuse them or prove them problem free without an audit..

    We can gather a strong case that these oddities are being seen in small samples and then the burden to show a fairly dealt becomes stronger.

    As an owner I would WANT to prove a fairly dealt , evenly seated completely random game that gives each player an equal chance to win or lose and that I am offering a game that is as consistant as possible as to the parts I can adjust...

    Casinos adjust the game all the time..adding a deck to the shoe changes things...but I can ask and be told that info...How many decks in there? 8 oh...ok

    Amazing...Im playing a game as I type this....just got knocked out on 8th hand...

    notable to me were 2 dealer BJ....4 dealer first 8....certainly possible random sequence...but how normal is it to see these Aces in the dealers hand?.... I never had an Ace in my hand...
    On this site it seems more likely to be this way.
  20. Springbac

    Springbac Member

    What is with this siite? I just tried to sign on for normal play & find only play is like UBT. No real money. My account for $ is not listed, only play money. Anyone have any infor???

Share This Page