Card Counting Question?

S

slim100_us

New Member
I have two questions for all you card counters. I am going trying to learn the KO Rooky system and I have a couple questions?

1. In the K-O blackjack book it states that your expectation in a 6-deck shoe game using a 1-5 bet spread that you can expect a .26% expectation. Does this mean that for every $100.00 I risk over time I can expect a return of .26 cents or $26.00?????

2. My next question is how much money should I bring to the table if I am doing a 1-5 spread with 1 unit being $3.00 and 5 units being $15.00. I was thinking of bringing $80.00 at a time.
 
Some points to start with

If you come to Las Vegas I'm not sure you are going to find a 6 deck shoe game with a minimum bet of $3 available to you that has any sort of decent rules.

On top of that I'm not confident that you could beat a 6 deck shoe game with that small of a spread.

Recommended spreads for a 6 deck games usually are 1-8 or 1-10 and higher. But then again, I'm not familiar with the count system that you mentioned, so maybe it can but I'm not so sure of it.

A spread of 1-4 will be sufficient for a one deck game that does not pay 6/5 on blackjacks. You must avoid these bust out games and they are everywhere in Las Vegas.

A spread of 1-6 to 1-8 will work for a two deck game,make sure of the blackjack payouts. There also as some greedy casinos that are sneaking in 6/5 payouts on double Deck Games. O'Shea's in Las Vegas is guilty of that.

The basic way to figure out you win rate is that you should win somewhere between 1 to 1 1/2 big bets per hour.

If you were to use your spread on a 1 deck game and play the count perfectly and the hands perfect that should happen.

Bringing $80 on a trip in my opinion is just not enough ,that only works out to 5 big bets per session. But you never told us what your overall bankroll was.

A lot of new counters can count and bet according to the count but when they play their hands they give back what ever edge they had going into the hand, if and when they play the hands wrong.

Playing the negative side of the deck is important also if you decide to sit through the JUNK as I call it.Hitting stiffs into dealers stiffs are a dead giveaway to the pit, so be careful there. Its something that you should do to maximize your edge if you stay at the table. A lot of counters leave because they either don't want to play the negative side or they believe it brings to much HEAT on them.


Your win rate over a extended period of time will be and should be somewhere between 15- 22 per hour.This is with a big bet of $15

You should keep an exact record of your sessions and time played and check it to see if you are playing up to par with your expected edge

As your bankroll grows so should you bet size.

Look upon your bankroll as a small snow ball rolling down the hill as it rolls it accumulates more snow and it becomes bigger and that is how your bankroll will grow small at first and it will become larger as it moves along,

Good Luck in the trenches .Keep us updated as to your new venture.We all have been exactly where you are right now, any help we can give please dont be afraid to ask.There are a lot of brilliant minds that post here.I'm just one of the SLUGS but I hope this helped.

You can also check at blackjackinfo.com where there is another group of brilliant minds just lurking.

Joep
 
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KO any good?

I've read in Arnold Snyders Blackbelt in Blackjack that the simulations run in KO were off the mark and that they overstated how powerful the system is. I learnt Arnolds Red 7 fairly easily but decided to convert to Hi-Lo. It was no trouble to learn and seems pretty easy to use.

Cheers

Reachy
 
Reachy said:
I learnt Arnolds Red 7 fairly easily but decided to convert to Hi-Lo. It was no trouble to learn and seems pretty easy to use.
Click to expand...
Funny you should say that. I learnt HiLo but have been considering the merits of switching to Red 7. With all games in the UK being 6-deck then, from what I've read, there doesn't seem to be much difference in the theoretical returns of balanced vs unbalanced counts (and that's before you factor in the costs of any inacuracies you make in converting from running to true count). Alas, it would seem the return is pretty poor in both cases, and I've only really ventured into casinos in the hope of breaking even and stuffing myself with as much free food as possible. :)

I'm inclined to stick with the HiLo because -
  • After a good deal of practice, my brain has at last become programmed to simply 'not see' the 7s and I don't like the idea of having to re-program it.
  • Better games than are currently available in the UK might come along in future, especially with the adfvent of the 'Super Casinos'
  • I might go to Vegas one day!
  • Although I'm not convinced that shuffle tracking is a viable proposition, if I ever were to try it it would require a balanced count.
 
Mit

I thought I'd learn the industry standard just in case I get invited to join a team ;).

Having said that, like you I haven't had any opportunity to use my AP skills in anger yet so I have been thinking of returning to Red 7 just to keep my eye in. If I was a regular I'd continue with Hi-Lo.

Cheers

Reachy
 
Not That I'm a Cardcounter, mind you....

slim100_us said:
I have two questions for all you card counters. I am going trying to learn the KO Rooky system and I have a couple questions?

1. In the K-O blackjack book it states that your expectation in a 6-deck shoe game using a 1-5 bet spread that you can expect a .26% expectation. Does this mean that for every $100.00 I risk over time I can expect a return of .26 cents or $26.00?????

2. My next question is how much money should I bring to the table if I am doing a 1-5 spread with 1 unit being $3.00 and 5 units being $15.00. I was thinking of bringing $80.00 at a time.
Click to expand...

Hey Slim,

A 0.26% expectation means 26 cents per $100 wagered. This is also why you want to get as many hands per hour in as you can.

As pointed out by Joe, a 1-5 spread would barely beat this game. I know the game of which you talk (we've played it together:cool: ) and it is a pretty good game. 6D, DAS, LS, DSA, DA2 that gives a house edge of about 0.23%. The big problem I see with it is that it is hard to find decent penetration.

But to answer your second question, I would still play a 1-12 spread and would be prepared to play with at least 10 top bets. I believe a 1-12 spread could give you a possible EV of > 1% at this game.

Take Care,
Pill
 
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slim100_us said:
I have two questions for all you card counters. I am going trying to learn the KO Rooky system and I have a couple questions?

1. In the K-O blackjack book it states that your expectation in a 6-deck shoe game using a 1-5 bet spread that you can expect a .26% expectation. Does this mean that for every $100.00 I risk over time I can expect a return of .26 cents or $26.00?????

2. My next question is how much money should I bring to the table if I am doing a 1-5 spread with 1 unit being $3.00 and 5 units being $15.00. I was thinking of bringing $80.00 at a time.
Click to expand...

Slim,
Have you visited the forum on the sister site?
They talk about various aspects to regular BJ play over there....
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/
 
Beating the 6 Deck Game.

Slim,

I respect JOEP's opinion and I may be missing something in his post but I don't quite agree with this statement in his post:

Joep said:
.......The basic way to figure out you win rate is that you should win somewhere between 1 to 1 1/2 big bets per hour......
Joep
Click to expand...

JOEP - Did you mean 1 to 1.5 UNITS per hour?

Slim-
You should be able to stay positive in the cash flow with your plan as long as you avoid a bad run of cards. Your expected value of 0.26% is what would concern me. This does not leave much room for error and will make it a slow grind.

Let me explain, in your bet spread of $3 to $15 you might average say an $8 bet? In a heads up game you might average 100 hands per hour? At a full table let’s say 60 hands per hour? Let’s take an average of 80 hands per hour.

80 hands per hour x $8 = $640/hr action.
$640 x 0.0026 (your EV) = $1.67 per hour profit in your scenario.

So yes, you can make money, just not much.

It has been quite a while since I read KO ( I use Red-7) so I'm not sure where the 0.26% EV comes from but I'm guessing it is a chart or something and based on your bet spread, rules and deck penetration it gives you this value.

Here are my suggestions:

1. Look for the best deck penetration you can find. This is key in making the money. As I remember, a lot of the 6 deck games at XXXX, they were only dealing out 4 decks (67%). This is probably not beatable, especially with a 1-5 spread.
2. Look for the least crowded tables. You will need to get in as many hands per hour to maximize your time and earnings.
3. I would also look at trying to increase your bet spread. Of course this would mean that you would need a larger bankroll and you could have bigger swings. Take a look at what your KO book says about bet spreads. Also take a look at this article on Arnold Snyder’s page. It gives some in site on playability of games based on rules, penetration and bet spreads. http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/battleofbabies.htm
4. Look at including some play indices, these are the variations from basic strategy based on the count that will increase your EV. There are 18 that are worth knowing and if you only include a few of them you get a big bang for your buck. If they are not talked about in your KO book you can also find them at the above website.

If you take these suggestions I would think that you should be able to win at a rate of 1.5 – 1.75 units per hour. So if your betting unit is $3 then you will average $4.50 - $5.25 per hour. Still a grind but much better then the $1.67 per hour.

Take a look at http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/6deckText.htm , this is part of Arnold Snyder’s work on “beating the 6 deck game". I would also highly recommend getting his Blackbelt in Blackjack. It contains a lot of good concepts of the game.

Good Luck,
Pill
 
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coincidently:

A Don Schlesinger article in the latest ALL-IN takes a look at this subject with a comparison to CSM and 8 deck at the pay 50 dollar entry room of the playboy "room" at the Psalms.

You'll have to factor your entry fee into the room into your calculations, or as Don, can I call you Don, said, your other esoteric and idiosynchric satisfactions.

And If I may presume, when JOEP said 1 and one half big bets an hour, he meant one and one half your high end spread. Penetration, penetration, penetration.
 
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