Card Runs

Discussion in 'Sidewalk Cafe' started by FMike756, Aug 26, 2008.

  1. FMike756

    FMike756 New Member

    I play a little BJ for fun. Often times I see these incredible runs (win or lose 3 to 7 hands consecutive) and I wonder if there is some way (other than counting) to identify this phenomena.
    Professional players advise that card counting is the only way to win consistently, yet I see a number of people win large sums during a specific run of cards. Many of these players state that they are waiting for the run to occur so they can make larger bets. They will often proclaim that was
    "good run" or that was a bad shoe.
    I also find that I am looking for this event to occur and often it does. Losing practically every hand occurs frequently also.

    I am sure that articles have been written on this topic and probably pooh-poohs the idea of any player advantage during a certain run of cards. I was wondering if any of you have given much thought to this topic, either in a tournament setting or during a live game?
  2. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    The problem with these runs is they aren't predictable before they happen, but instead are only apparent afterwards.

    If you've won the last 10 hands in a row, there's no doubt that you have experienced a run. Unfortunately, that gives you no information at all about what will happen on the 11th hand in the series.

    There's no way to use this information to get an edge over the game, despite the claims of the casual players.
  3. Billy C

    Billy C Top Member

    Don't waste time thinking about this

    As Ken indicates, this is just a flukish thing that happens. Please remember that HUNCH PLAYERS ARE LOSERS!!!

    Billy C
  4. FMike756

    FMike756 New Member

    When these runs do occur, I would think a counter would be most likely to identify said run and be able to take advantage of it. The run would most likely occur in conjunction with the optimum time to increase the players bet, would it not?
    If I identify a run as 3 consecutive wins by the player and an advantageous shoe remaining, should the counter continue to increase his bet (assuming his count tells him to do so) on the 4th, 5th, or more consecutive wins?
    I think I would be afraid of any increase after the 3rd or 4th hand.
    It seems these events do occur, and sometimes frequently. My best play accordingly, should be BS an ignore the runs.
  5. Billy C

    Billy C Top Member

    Not a word

    "Run" isn't a word in counters vocabulary. It's all about the count and "ramping" bets accordingly.

    Billy C
  6. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

  7. FMike756

    FMike756 New Member

    While I don't think that anyone can win consistently with this style of play, there remain a large number of players that wait patiently for that "hot shoe or hot dealer" that will make their play worthwhile. Unlike the "gamblers fallacy", noted by Monkey, these players are looking for a series of events to occur.

    I agree with Ken, we cannot identify the start or end of a series of wins, but they do occur. Some factors, like clumping of cards, or the actual shuffling of the cards may contribute to a series of wins. Whatever it is that creates this chain of events, I would like to bottle and sell it to all the non-counters.
  8. sweet william

    sweet william Member

    bottle of wins!

    when you get that bottled,put me down for a case!
  9. TedinNaples

    TedinNaples New Member

    There is one element to counting cards that I find frustrating, and it relates to this thread.

    There have been so many times when I had a winning streak of 3, 4, 5 or more hands as the count went negative and kept getting worse. Of course, with a negative count, I'm usually betting the minimum. (I know...what am I doing staying at a table when the count goes negative? But beggars can't be choosers when there are a limited number of tables to play at my minimum bet level.)

    A few years ago, I read why this seems to happen many times. The reason:
    For the count to go negative, and keep on getting more negative, lots of high-value cards (10s and Aces) have to be coming out, while low-value cards are not. Well, as we all know, that's in the player's favor. So we are more likely to win when clumps of these cards come out for numerous hands. And what you wind up with is having won 3 or more hands in a row (at minimum bet level), but now being faced with a negative-14 shoe.

    And one should not be raising their bets when this occurs, since the shoe is getting worse and worse after each hand.

    Does this make sense? Have you had this happen to you numerous times?
  10. Billy C

    Billy C Top Member

    Yes and yes.

    Billy C
  11. MrPill

    MrPill Active Member

    Unknow until after.......

    ......the run occurs. And that is where the problem lies in predicting a "run" of cards.

    Of course though, if conditions present themself such as a weak shuffle and you have the ability to shuffle track, then you can take full advantage of this "run" since you've tracked the location of this plug. You can benefit greatly ($$) since you then know when this "run" will occur!

    Good Cards,
  12. Billy C

    Billy C Top Member

    Integrity (and or ethics)

    Maybe I should have started a new thread with this but it kind of fits here.
    When I play BJ I don't try to cheat and shuffle tracking isn't cheating but it's not something I do. Now, hole carding is a different story. If someone makes an effort to see hole card, I consider that cheating. If it's inadvertently shown to you by the dealer you naturally would use advantage on that hand but if dealer purposely shows it consistently I would leave table UNLESS I had vindictive reasons.
    I expect the casino to give me an honest game so I feel obligated to give them the same!

    Billy C
  13. FMike756

    FMike756 New Member

    de-ja vu

    I am sure that some casino security types peruse these threads in hopes of catching those scoundrels that "cheat", or even those that even take a few bucks honestly, Never-the less, the subject is again concerning 'card runs" and pertain to live BJ play that was witnessed by a few floor personnel.

    Live game-dd 1-5s-heads up-black chip

    Three hands into the shuffle + count that calls for max bet. Bet 500-win, still+ bet 500 win, now only marginal but still bet 500 and win. count is now - and continues - for next four hands but instead of taking down my bet, I leave it at 500 and win all 4 bets. I see no reason to lower my bet now and play the same amount, but alas all good things must end, and I lose my 17 to a dealer 20.

    I won 7 consecutive hands with a max units and added considerably to my bankroll. Had I gotten out after the 3rd win I would not have known the excitement that the 7 straight wins would bring me nor the scrutiny and futility of the suits trying to assess my style of play.

    This may be the end for me at this casino but I only play for fun and "money".
  14. Billy C

    Billy C Top Member


    You won money while making unwise bets. Consider yourself lucky and stop doing it NOW if you want to stay ahead.

    Billy C
  15. askdick

    askdick Member

    Playing the runs

    I have been playing this game for 40 years and I have my own system like almost everyone else does. Playing runs is my only betting strategy in a cash game and it does work very well. A run starts when you win 1 hand. My bettting strategy is 1-2-3-4-6-8-10-12-15-20 then add 5 units with each win. These are unit bets. My largest run ever was 30 units. When I loose I go back to 1. There is more to it as I start with 20 units, 5.00 game = 100.00, 25.00 game is 500.00. I never have more than my buy in on the table and always pull 4 units out of the game with every double of my buy in. When I loose my buy in I quit. I will never buy in for more $$$ at the same table. I only play 6 deck shoe, with as many favorable options as possible. I usually play at the LV Hilton as they offer surrender. Also I only play a hand shuffled game, no machines AND NO 8 DECK GAMES.

    The most important trait is you must be patient. A run will come when you least expect it and they are VERY exciting. I have found that this works as well as counting and you will never be asked to leave, it is very relaxing to play and will work with any unit. Over time, you will loose more sessions than you win, but this method will make you a winner. You will never be able to buy the casino. With this method playing BJ can be entertaining rather than gambling.

    I know all you counters and math majors will reject this as "hog wash" but try it for 10 sessions and you will see the benefits.

    Good luck...because that is what you need for ALL systems...
  16. Billy C

    Billy C Top Member


    It's hard for me to believe that that has been a winning system for you for 40 years. Reason being that all the experts from Wong on down seem to have the belief that NO systems work.
    I think their philosophy is something like this:
    Systems and/or Hunches=LOSERS
    Counting accurately and betting accordingly=WINNERS

    Now if you actually think it works for you, keep doing it. It's your money.

    Billy C
  17. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

    Betting Systems

    If you play perfect basic strategy and flat bet your mathematical expectation is of losing half a percent or higher of your action, depending on the rules. No matter what you bet if you flat bet you must have a mathematical expectation of losing that same percentage of your action.

    If you place bets that have nothing to do with your knowledge of the composition of the remaining unplayed cards, you must have a mathematical expectation of losing that same percentage of your total action. If the cards are randomized and you don't know the composition of the remaining unplayed cards, then no amount you decide to bet on any given hand can change your expectation.

    If you have a betting system you believe works, try keeping detailed and honest records of every session you play. Over the long haul you're likely to find that you're helping the casinos make their payrolls and pay their bills.

    I can think of one benefit of using a betting system. It seems like it would be more fun than just flat betting. However, to me it's even more fun to use a card counting system that gives you a real mathematical advantage over the house.
  18. askdick

    askdick Member

    I have read many of the books and know what is stated in the books. Don't knock it if you haven't tried it. It DOES work over the long haul AND I do keep very accurate records, at least for the last few years as I live in Vegas and manage to play several times a week. Not sure what the long haul means but I have been playing for many years and I will stand by my system. In my life time I will not play the millions of hands to worry about the real odds.

    There is NO stress, the pit bosses do not bother you and the sessions are actually fun...and you meet a lot of nice people. I am not playing to pay my rent and I am not looking to win millions, just like to stay ahead of the game.

    I am not trying to convince anyone unless they wish to go partners with me when they are in Vegas.

    Good luck to all regardless of your method of play...
  19. Jeff Dubya

    Jeff Dubya New Member

    hahaha when you bottle that, sell it with all the other snake oil that's out there for idiot BJ players.

    There's only one thing involved with card runs, and it's called UNPREDICTABLE RANDOM CHANCE. And if you read the meanings to each of those words, then you will understand that you would be better off spending your time doing something productive than trying to crack that safe.

    Look at the billions of simulations that have been run in the last 20+ years to develop basic strategy. Trust me, if there was a way to predict it and "bottle it" as you say, then we'd probably already be drinking that wine. All of us.
  20. Billy C

    Billy C Top Member

    I'll drink with you!

    I'm sure you're a good guy and we might enjoy a drink together sometime but as for your offer of teaming up, I respectfully decline.

    Billy C

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