Commentary for episode 4

[fgk42]

See Hand 25
This is a classic hand that demonstrates an important tournament-blackjack concept regarding play of hands after the bets are made (betting is the most important skill in a tournament, but the play can also be huge). It’s an Elimination Hand and the betting order is Monica with $114,500, Klara with $79,500, and Chuck with $119,500. Chuck is in a good spot, leading the table and betting last. Monica picks a good time to use her SB, since, if she survives, she’ll bet last on the final hand 30 (this is the sort of thing you should always be looking ahead to and thinking about). However, when Monica bets only $30,000, she leaves the high side open for Klara and Klara takes it (though she doesn’t know she has it for sure, due to Monica’s SB). Klara probably shouldn’t have used her SB here, given that she will have to bet first on hand 30 if she survives. Chuck makes a perfect bet of $40,000, giving him high and low on Klara no matter what she’s bet (he’ll win $159,500 to $158,500 if she’s bet the max and they both win, and $79,500 to $78,500 if she’s bet the minimum and they both lose). When Monica stands on 16, Klara needs only to win her bet to pass Monica, but she assumes she needs a win/lose with one of her two opponents and 17 isn’t enough to make that happen. Klara thinks long, then takes the hit and busts. She didn’t have to hit, but she went through the proper thought process and came up with the right play.

My thoughts on this:

1. Monica should have bet differently on her SB - 46,000 not the 30,000 so as to give Klara the high

2. When Klara hits the 17 why NOT stand? If the dealer gets 17, Monica loses and Klara pushes - assuming Monica put in 46,000 Klara passes.

Aren't the odds of standing on 17 better than hitting? (math wizzes help me out here)

3. Great optimal bet by Chuck - However when Klara busts and chuck had a crappy hand why not surrender?

Just random thoughts from a newbie!

PS Any comments on the quotes from their analyst? Who is that BTW - anyone know?

 

[Joep]

Know Your Players Habits

Fgk 42

Good point on the fact that Chuck should have considered surrendering

But there was an even better option

His decision how to play this hand jumped out of the screen when I was watching it today.

In one of my recent post I stated that knowing your players and their habits can and should affect how you play your hand in addition to taking the math into the situation

Let take a look at this hand Monica secret bets,in front of everyone and stood on her 16.Klara broke her hand out in the open for Chuck to see.

Here is where Chuck made a big mistake.

He now knows he is safe because Klara had to at least bet 1,000 which would have been suicidal for her but lets give her that bet, she know has 78,500 which Chuck will have beat even if he loses his hand 119,500 minus 40,000 = 79,500

He had 2 options here and only 2

He could have surrendered to bring back 20,000 and have a total of 99,500 not a good option but one that he could have considered

He could have hit his hand until he was on a stiff and then stand on his hand and have the same results as Monica.

He NEVER should have broken his hand with a lead on Monica and her standing on her stiff

Knowing your player here is important, that fact that she stood pretty much indicates she has a big bet out and does not want to bust it going first. If she had a small bet out she would be more inclined to hit the hand and this is where Chuck should have been more observant in the match. This was a big clue and he missed it in my opinion

He pretty much was done when he busted his hand and the dealer busted behind him and Monica was paid her bet.A 70,000 swing, close to a max bet swing with only 5 hands to go, this is hard to recover from

Chucks hand was a 3-2 I believe I would have hit the hand out trying to get 18 or better once I became stiff I would have stood to insure that Monica and I have the same result.

The clue was there that she had a big bet also, he just wasn't being observant.

Knowing your players is a skill that can and should be used especially with secret bets and 3 forced elimination hands .

One other note you are not allowed to use this info against me just everyone else


Joep

 

[fgk42]

Concerning Chuck's hand:

I believe that his first hit was a face card giving Chuck a 15 vs. a dealer face card.

Monica has stayed on her 16, Klara busted and because of Chucks bet he is "freerolling" (I assume I'm using the correct term here)

If Chuck has simply stayed on the 15 the outcome of the game would definately been different. I recall Chuck saying, "can I surrender now?" (jokingly)

So I am assuming that you, Joep, would have stood in that situation based on the psychology and playing habits that you observed in Monica, am I correct?

Second question deals with Klara's hitting on the hard 17 vs the dealers face card. Good play?

Personally I think that Chuck was just looking at Monicas two assests and not chip counting during the match. I noticed that he was counting Monicas chips much longer and more than Klara's chips

 

[Reachy]

Some thoughts...

My mathematical analysis of what Klara should have done vs. Monica says she should have stood. I'm assuming the dealer has a T showing as even though it's not mentioned in the original transcript fgk42 eludes to it later. Klara has to win to have any chance of avoiding the drop and Monica needs to lose. She has the high on Monica but Monica can win or lose against Klara if Klara loses or pushes.

Stand - 23.02%
Hit Once - 18.31%

As you can see she hasn't got much hope.

We mustn't forget about BR1 though as his position isn't completely secure. He has a soft hand and will of course hit. He has a 60% chance of hitting a stiff (I've always hated hand totals of 4, 5, 6; stiffs in waiting!). If he's stiff and he stands he could push the hand with BR3 if the dealer gets 17 (12.13%) and then there would be a play-off that I'm sure he would rather avoid. If BR1 gets 17 or above he is guaranteed to avoid the drop if we assume that BR3 has decided to stand on her 17. To get to 17 he will need to hit twice though. So if BR1 has a stiff should he hit? If he busts he could be eliminated if the dealer also busts or gets 17. To cut a long story short BR1 shouldn't hit if he's stiff (BR1 12; Stand = 87.86%, Hit once = 85.45%). What about fgk42's surrender option for BR1? Actually that does force both Monica and Klara to win if he is to get eliminated which will only happen if the dealer busts, 23.02% of the time. Since even a stiff will only lose for him 12.14% of the time he shouldn't surrender.

So what does this mean for Klara. I think it re-emphasises the Stand. At least if she stands she could also have chance against BR1 whereas busting means its between her and Monica. In fact Klara's chances go up to 35.15% of getting at least a play-off if BR1 gets stiff and stands.

Cheers

Reachy

 

[fgk42]

Reachy,

Sorry mate, I forgot you don't get the program over there. I'll do a summary of hand 25 (elimination). Thank you TIVO

Totals:

Monica 114,500
Klara 79,500
Chuck 119,500

Monica is BR2 and on the button and uses her secret bet (30,000)
Klara is second and uses her secret bet (78,000)
Chuck is last and bets 40,000

Cards dealt are:

Monica 3 & 4 hits to 16 and stands
Klara 10 & 7 hits to 25
chuck 2 & 3 hits and gets 10, hits and gets another 10 busts

Dealer 10 turns a 4
Dealer hits and busts 24

Monica 144,500
Klara 1,500
Chuck 79,500

My contention was the following:

1. Should Klara has stayed (I would have)
2. Should Chuck have:
a. surrendered (I would have and realize it would have been the wrong
move - see Joep post)
b. stayed at 15 (I believe that would have been the best move - see Joep
post).

 

[Reachy]

Who needs TIVO?

Thanks fgk

My maths still stand. You're right Klara should have stood but she was a big dog no matter what. Since Klara busted Chuck can't be eliminated so he must minimise any swing potential with Monica which means mimicing her and standing on a stiff. Ken's new table doesn't cover what happens when your opponent stands on a stiff but I guess that it would suggest that you did also if it had that data.

Cheers

Reachy