Cover blackjack vs give up the push/lose ?

PlayHunter

PlayHunter

Active Member
Last hand, Min/Max bet 100/500 no surrender, no double for less.

BR2 550 chips and bet 500. BR1 801 chips - should bet 250 or 500 ?

Additional question: - Should BR2 bet 275 with the hope that BR1 will copy his bet (or only bet the 250 difference) instead of making a 500 max bet ?
 
Let's do it together

PlayHunter,
You can figure out this one yourself by doing step by step analysis.
First, indicate (in the next post) all possibilities when BR2 wins by using results for both players in a manner W-P, P-L, etc.. The options are WDB (Win Doubled Bet), BJ (Blackjack), W, P, L, and for BR1 you can additionally use NWDB (Not Winning Doubled Bet) and NW (Not Winning). Then we will see how little (or much) they differ and substitute them with % chances.

In the first example, when BR2 bets 500 there will be three combinations for BR2 to advance with BR1 response of 250 and four combinations with BR1 bet of 500.

For the additional question you will have two variants where BR2 bets 275 (actually it could be a bet from the range of 252 to 275, there are some nuances about which we can talk later) and BR1 responding 250. Let’s say that the second variant is BR2 bets 275 and BR1 bets 400 (not 500).

S. Yama
 
Well, when BR2 bet 500 he need to Win while BR1 is Not Winning or Win with a Blackjack while BR1 is Not Winning Doubled Bet. (In this case BR2 can not double)

Roughly, I know the correct play which is to not give up the BR2 Push - BR1 lose case (which happens ~5%) in order to cover a BR1 Blackjack (which also happens 5%) because BR1 can double down to cover BR2 Blackjack which will have a success rate of ~30% - so this will reduce BR2 win % with ~1.67%

So, I know the correct decision, I just don`t know the exact percentages, which I would like to find out. Also, please correct me if/where I am wrong.

And for the additional question, yes 252 to 275, (what are the nuances ?) and yes, BR1 should actually bet at least 300 up to max 400, not 500 (because of split)
 
Last edited:
Sim Results

PlayHunter said:
So, I know the correct decision, I just don`t know the exact percentages, which I would like to find out. Also, please correct me if/where I am wrong.
Click to expand...
If BR1 responds with a bet of 250, he has a 82.17% chance of advancing if both players play optimally.
If BR1 responds with a bet of 500, he has a 77.94% chance, again, if both play optimally.

Since BR2 can't double or split, the decision would probably be the same for BR1 if BR2 is a basic strategy opponent, although the percentages would differ.
 
Some Numbers

Dealer H17 S18 BJ 3-2
With both players playing basic strategy

..........BkRll.......Bet
BR2......550.......500
BR1......801.......500

With a BR1 bet of 500 BR1 has an 80.57% chance of winning the round. BR1 also can cover a winning BJ by BR2 (provided BR1 can win this bet).
However if BR1 suffers the push - loss swing then he loses the round.

Since a winning BJ occurs less than a push loss swing, then a BR1 bet of 250 will still give him the high and low and the win even if he suffers the push loss swing. BR1 will win the round 83.64% of the time.
However BR1 won't be able to cover a winning BJ by BR2 with a bet of 250.

But if BR1 sees BR2 get a winning BJ then BR1 can still double or split to have a chance to win the round. Thus BR1 should have a greater than 83.64% chance to win the round.

..........BkRll.......Bet
BR2......550.......275
BR1......801.......250

When BR2 bets 275 then a BR1 bet of 162 - 250 gives BR1 a 85.68% chance to win the round even if BR2 gets a BJ.

However if BR2 can get a double bet going then BR1's chance drops to around 56.80% since a BR1 bet of 250 will not cover a double bet win by BR2.
BR1 will probably will need to double or split.
I don't like to double hard 19 or split 10's.
Therefore an initial BR1 bet of 300 (up to 500) will give BR1 an advantage of 80.57% with out the need to double and BR1 still can split 8's if need be.
I would give up the 85.68% chance (that could drop to 56.80%) and settle for the 80.57% chance with no doubling or splitting required.


.................................BlueLight
 
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