did some math

[Barney Stone]

To be a money winner at BJ21 with a vig f 10% and 5 players per table you would have to win 2/5 or 40%

5 games investment = 100$ + 10% = 110$

Prize pool 100$ @ each

60% to winner @ 2 wins 120$

You win 10$

If you play 5 games and win one place one 2nd

invested 110$

win 60% pool one game place 40% pool at another wins you 100$

You lose 10$ overall.

Now Im not sure what value the loyalty and winner points carry, but looks to me you need to place about 3/5 to come out strong. So, if the loyalty and winner points dont carry a good value the company must lower the house take to 5%.

I might be wrong, just some simple figures. But it will take a lot of luck, unless you are the Machine, to win 3/5 on a steady basis.

Barney

 

[Reachy]

A comparison - BJ21.com vs Global

I did a few similar calculations a few days ago and the results are quite interesting. Of course the experienced TBJ players here know that the prize structure as well as the vig has a bearing on the value of of the game and this is evident when you compare BJ21 with GP. Although the vig is higher at BJ21 the prize structure is slightly different with 60% for 1st vs. 66% at GP and 40% for 2nd vs. 33% at GP.

When you do a break even analysis with a variety of 1st/2nd ratios the results are not what I initially expected. I looked at 6 different scenarios and calculated the B/E for both GP and BJ 21. The scenarios were based on how often you came 1st or 2nd when you placed in the top 2 and were as follows - 1) 2nd 100%, 2) 2nd 80%, 1st 20%; 3) 2nd 60%, 1st 40%; 4) 2nd 40%, 1st 60%; 5) 2nd 20%, 1st 80%; and 6) 1st 100%.

Scenario-------GP------------BJ21
1)-------------64%-----------55%
2)-------------53.3%---------50%
3)-------------45.7%--------45.8%
4)-------------40%----------42.3%
5)-------------35.6%--------39.3%
6)-------------32%----------36.7%

The way I read this (and I could be miles off) is that it would be easier to make a profit if you are not such a good player if you play at BJ21 whereas the better players will make more money at Global. The point at which they offer equal value is when you can win 40% of the time you place in the top 2. As soon as you can come 1st more than 40% of the time you're better off at Global. If you want I'll show you how I came to my answers but they are in a spreadsheet and they don't seem to cut'n'paste well to this forum.

Is this a valid analysis? What do you think of the conclusions?

Cheers

Reachy

Ps. calculations based on 5 players playing $15+1 game on Global and the $20+2 game at BJ21.com

 

[Barney Stone]

Very interesting Reachy

Thanks for your effort. One thing that might be a trump card is at bj21 they offer value points, loyalty for free games, Im at 134, and winning points for paying games, of which I have a big zero, LOL. But, just what is the value of these points? Im not sure. This points structure is much like a comp system at your land based casino and points could cut the house take down if they get you free tournament play etc. I looked but didnt find an easy answer, I'll try to dig a little deeper.

Barney.