Final Hand Advice needed !

S

ssho88

New Member
Hi,

May I know when is the most suitable time to swing* or to gain** on your opponent? Should I implement this type of play only during the last hand since normally the bet is large and the chances to get bust is very high?

*playing your hand in such a way that you increase the likelihood that you will win this bet while your opponent loses his bet,draw to at least 18 and two points more then your opponent has.

**playing your hand in such a way that you win, while she or he pushes, or you push while she or he loses, draw to at least 17 and one point more then your opponent has

Your comments please.

Best

ssho88
 
No Set Way

There really is no set way to play your hand to swing or gain on your opponet other than using your betting position to help in betting a certain amount after your opponet has bet and can not counter your bet.

You then have a choice after seeing your opponets bet to decide if you should bet enough that if you win your hand you will pass your opponet even if he wins a double down.Or if you opponet has made a large wager you may be able to keep more chips back then he would have if he lost or pushed his hand.

I hope this helps in solving your problem.There is another solution that forces you to hit hands you normally would not to create swings but this is not for the faint of heart.The betting plan allows you most of the time to play the hands the right way .

Your statement that when bets are high the dealer will bust more are not true the dealer bust percentage is always the same according to the up card and not the bets
 
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Time Is Short

With only 3 hands to go and being behind by more than a Max bet you can not wait much longer than you have already.My advice to use your betting position comes into play on this hand if you opponet loses his hand and you win yours you will go ahead of him by 25 dollars.Keep in mind that on hand 20 you will have last bet so if you were to get the lead going into the last hand you are a big favorite to advance.If you were to lose that hand you will still have 775 which in 2 hand could become 2550.Since there are pushes 8% of the time you need to move now and not waste any hands or time


P.S.

He pulled his example after I posted this but here is what it looked like

Hand 18 of 20 2 players left

Br 1 1800 Bet 50
Br 2 1275 what should I bet

Min 50 Max 500
 
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Sorry about that, the previous post is wrong! Your advice needed for this situation !

Hi,

Sorry about that, the previous post is wrong!

I think I should explain with an example.

For example
Hand 19 of 20
My opponent’s BR = 1900, my BR = 1000,
Bet range is $50 - $500
My opponent’s bet = 500(on the button) with 2 cards total = 18
My bet = 500 with 2 cards total = 17
Dealer’s up card = 9

My questions are as follow:-

1) Should I draw another card (hope for 3 or 4) now(hand 19 of 20)and hope the dealer will draw a Ten and get a total 19(so I will win my bet and my opponent will lost his bet) in order for me to take the lead in the last hand (hand 20 of 20) ?

OR

Should I just STAND and then fight in the last hand ?(Please note that if I STAND, my opponent will still ahead of me in the last hand regardless of dealer’s total)


2) Should I just bet min 50(instead of 500) and “take the low”, then fight in the last hand(hand 20 of 20)


Best

Ssho88
 
????

Its real hard for me to help you when you keep on changing the sitution.We went from 3 hands left to 2 hands left.We went from 1800 vs 1275 to 1900 vs 1000 at first the bets were 50 for Br 1 and now its 500 for Br 1.The only thing I could tell you is that you never want to be behind by that much that late.Be within a max bet or be busted !!!
 
Ssho88,

I feel somewhat responsible for you getting a proper response since you had quoted part of my article (“Plan your play, play your plan” available in the library of blackjackforum.com) as a main part of your question. I didn’t want to jump in right away because at first you addressed it specifically to Ken. Then you came with expanded questions that contained specific examples.

Your enthusiasm is appreciated and hopefully you will become an expert soon, but hear me well here:
There are no magic formulas.
There is only a helpful guidance. Right plays depend first and foremost on your total skills, then on your opponents’ skills, each play will vary broadly based on specificity of situation, where once again, its complexity and possibilities become readable based on depth of your blackjack, statistics, and tournament strategy knowledge.
You may want to read my message “Exchange of ideas with TL” just a few threads below, if you haven’t already.
It is fine to discuss a very particular situation but you need to build a very strong base first, and then slowly add and understand implications of additional circumstances.
Even if I give you close estimations of chances, expressed in numbers, for all five scenarios you posted, what would that mean to you? How much would you benefit from it if next time you play one or more parameters changed? If you knew (and remembered) the numbers, how much would you change your playing/betting in hands leading to this situation to avoid/improve your chances?
What Joep was trying to tell you in his message was that the situation you described was bad and your chances to advance were slim, therefore perhaps you should had played differently before you’d found yourself in this predicament.

Of course if you feel strongly that this is what you need to know, we can explore the situation step by step. You would need to come up with two detailed, different but strategically related setups. Ready?

S. Yama
 
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