Guarding against a swing.

PlayHunter

PlayHunter

Active Member
OK, we know that BR1 has to stand in order to avoid a swing from BR2 on the last hand, when BR1 gets 13, BR2 18 and dealer 10, after BR1 matched BR2`s bet.

My question is if this still should be applied if it does not happen on the last hand, but say for example on the next to last hand ? (but about at an earlier point ?)
 
With exact bankrolls, bets, betting limits and rules, we could do a 2 hand analysis as we have done for other 2nd last hand situations.

In actual live play, all we can really consider is our goal for the current hand, be it the last, 2nd last, or an earlier hand. How you should play then depends on your goal for that hand. You may or may not care that BR2 could overtake you on an early hand, based on what you have observed about his play and the play of your other opponents. Later in the round, you would care about this more. I would say that most players would be inclined to protect their lead on the 2nd last hand.

The main thing is, once you have a goal for a particular hand, for whatever reason, then you should play that hand in such a way as to maximize your chances of achieving that goal.
 
No, I do not want to have a two hand analysis for this situation. But just to speak on a general purpose. - Well, if I have even 1unit lead/advantage my goal is to preserve this lead as much/long as I can unless I want to build a stronger lead. And I do not want to build a stronger lead if I will be acting last on the last hand.

So what I want to ask, is if this is a winning approach or a losing one in the long run ? For example, it is hand 3 and I have 1unit advantage and I am acting first on this hand. I did a minimum 100 bet and my opponent did a 102 bet. My goal for this hand is to not fall behind with more than a minimum bet. So, if I get a hard 14, my opponent a hard 18 and dealer a 10, I would stand on my 14. Same if I get 16, my opponent 17 and dealer 7. - The thing is if my goal is good or not ?

On the other hand, if later, I will be first to act on the last hand, I tend to build my desired lead by doubling and splitting even if this means to give up the current low, even if I already have a small lead (less than the minimum bet) and a lock to preserve it for the current (3-7) hand. - Is this a loose approach to the game ?
 
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I feel that one more hand with the lead is one less opportunity for my opponent to overtake me, so I tend to protect my leads throughout to a certain degree.

Early in the round, I mainly use simple correlation, although I do look for opportunities to increase my lead without risk. Later in the round, based on the principle above, my main priority is to protect the lead that I have with the highest probability of success. Once again, if given a chance to increase the lead without giving up anything, then I will do so.

You may call your approach "loose" and perhaps mine is conservative. It's hard to quantify these kinds of things. I would be very interested to hear the opinions of others here.
 
I am not sure if I really did understand .. I`ll try to repeat what I think I did understand from your response:

Let`s just say that you have only a 1 unit lead. Early in the round (prior to the last 5 hands) you play basic strategy on your hand (such as hit hard 14 or 16 vs a dealer 10 when your opponent have a hard 18 or hard 17) but you do play a "avoid a half swing strategy" (such as standing on your hard 14 when dealer have a 10 and your opponent a hard 18) if you are in the last 5 rounds, in order to protect your lead with the highest probability of success when you have matched his bet ? - This also means that if your opponent stand on a stiff, and you have matched his bet you will not double on your 11, no matter if you will be first or last to act on the last hand ? - OK, if I did correctly understand your approach until here, then I want to ask how do you try to protect your 1 unit lead (I will take the same example: - late in the round, hand 6 or 8 out of 10, you bet first, your hand hard 14, your opponent hand hard 18, dealer 10) if your opponent made a bet higher with two units more than your bet ? You still stand, or now you hit up to 17 or more ?

And yes, I would be curious to see others approach to these things too. It is pretty interesting ..
 
Sorry. I was not clear. I was actually only talking about what I bet and not about how I play my hands.

Early in the round, I don't spend much time or effort in trying to calculate the perfect bet. If I have an early lead, I mainly correlate my bet with those behind me, but if an obvious opportunity to increase my lead presents itself, then I will take advantage.

In playing my cards, at all stages of the round, I will play to avoid a swing. If there is only one opponent immediately challenging my lead, this is fairly easy. If there is more than one, then I may play to win my hand.

In the example you give, I would stand on my 14. I only get swung if the dealer makes 17 or 18.
 
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