My hat to you Monkey...

A

Archie

New Member
if you can really do all this analysis in 45 seconds...or is it post-hand analysis. All that brain effort to win a TEC;)

Nonetheless, I enjoyed a lot your article about Freerolls in BJInsider. I've been playing more of them in the last month and I agree with you on the fact that a few players seems to slowly standout in the sea of ploppies.
 
The link swog posted will not tell you anything. It only wets your appetite. You must be a paid subscriber to the BJ INSIDER to get the full article. So if anyone would care to give some details of the article, that would be good.
 
Mixed Bag

Archie said:
if you can really do all this analysis in 45 seconds...or is it post-hand analysis. All that brain effort to win a TEC;)

Nonetheless, I enjoyed a lot your article about Freerolls in BJInsider. I've been playing more of them in the last month and I agree with you on the fact that a few players seems to slowly standout in the sea of ploppies.
Click to expand...

I've played hundreds of online games, so alot of this thought process has gotten to be habit. It takes a lot longer to read a written description of this kind of analysis than is does to just think it. Some of the article indeed was post hand analysis. If I had thought of all that stuff in the post analysis during the game I may have acted differently! :o

Every serious player should study situations in this manner until the analysis become habit. Then you study your habits to make sure you haven't got bad ones. I still remember that game. Most of the time I spent thinking was just doing the mental arithmetic. My understanding of the situation (which was wrong) came almost immediately.
 
Boring for many, but...

freerolls can still be good practice, argues Monkeysystem in his BJInsider article, entitled A Diamond in the Rough. He then gives an example of an elimination hand he was involved in and I quote :

"Last hand, head to head, hand 25, both still have secret bets. Min bet 500, max bet 25,000, surrender allowed. I go first and I’m BR2.

Me: bankroll 95,250 secret bet 19K; cards T,9

Alpha: bankroll 98,000 secret bet; cards 7,2; DD secret amount, card face down

Dealer; 2

He then goes on to analyse why he bet that amount, based on his reading of the style shown previously by his unknown opponent (he was "agressive...in a measured way").

In the end he was hoodwinked by Alpha and gives him credit. He calls him Alpha, but this is not his real screen name which he forgot.

" I should’ve paid more attention to this particular screen name for future reference...", concludes Monkeysystem

Here's what happened, and I quote directly from his article :

"By now you’re wondering what the outcome was. After my opponent doubled, the dealer busted. My opponent’s double down card was an 8 and the bet was revealed to be 10K doubled fully to 20K. My opponent won the TEC."

And then Monkey goes on with his analysis of the hand.

An interesting read and well written article:)

N.B.: You'll find at least one or two articles on TBJ strategy in every monthly issue of BJInsider (an online newsletter sent to subscribers by e-mail). Many members of this site contributes, including Ken Smith, Joep and TX to name a few)
 
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Same bet

I am sure Monkeysystem article is well written both in form and content, as he becomes one of the best tournament strategy analysts. I haven’t read it yet, but will try to get hold of it this weekend.

Funny thing, my bet would also be 19K. I wonder how close our analyses are?

1. I am BR2, last hand, secret bets. I can’t have both high and low, so I should go for one or the other, preferably low (at least low by surrendering) and at the same time high by winning a double bet or bj, or straight high (at least by doubling or blackjack).
2. The difference in bankrolls is 2,750. Any bet I make can get neutralized by the opponent coincidentally betting right amount, going for the high at leas affords a chance of overcoming the opponent in events like bj or dd.
3. For high I should bet at least 15K.
4. Since (from the post) I know that opponent was measurably aggressive I will try to get a low as well. To get low on BR1 betting max I need to bet 22K or less. To have low while both of us surrender I need to bet 19K or less.
5. To cover BR1 winning max bet I need to bet at least 14K and double, to cover it by blackjack I need to bet at least 19K.
6. Cross-reference all five points and the bet is 19K

For really experienced players it is possible to make this analysis under one minute. Though even years of practice won’t prevent anybody (surely, not me) from making an occasional blunder too.

S. Yama
 
Can you explain...

Thanks guys for this intersting thread. I may have to go and revist TEC games again :D .

S. Yama, can you tell me where you got the $15K figure from (Point No. 3) when you said you need to bet at least that amount to get the high?

Many thanks

Reachy
 
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Pretty Close

S. Yama said:
I am sure Monkeysystem article is well written both in form and content, as he becomes one of the best tournament strategy analysts. I haven’t read it yet, but will try to get hold of it this weekend.

Funny thing, my bet would also be 19K. I wonder how close our analyses are?

1. I am BR2, last hand, secret bets. I can’t have both high and low, so I should go for one or the other, preferably low (at least low by surrendering) and at the same time high by winning a double bet or bj, or straight high (at least by doubling or blackjack).
2. The difference in bankrolls is 2,750. Any bet I make can get neutralized by the opponent coincidentally betting right amount, going for the high at leas affords a chance of overcoming the opponent in events like bj or dd.
3. For high I should bet at least 15K.
4. Since (from the post) I know that opponent was measurably aggressive I will try to get a low as well. To get low on BR1 betting max I need to bet 22K or less. To have low while both of us surrender I need to bet 19K or less.
5. To cover BR1 winning max bet I need to bet at least 14K and double, to cover it by blackjack I need to bet at least 19K.
6. Cross-reference all five points and the bet is 19K

For really experienced players it is possible to make this analysis under one minute. Though even years of practice won’t prevent anybody (surely, not me) from making an occasional blunder too.

S. Yama
Click to expand...

Actually I never thought of point #5. You need to bet 2/3 max bet plus the gap plus a chip to cover it with your BJ. I also try to avoid being correlated by half max bets, which happen a lot online. Everything else was right on.
 
Ballpark

If BR1 is going to secretly offer you the high, 15K has an excellent chance of being enough to cover his double downs and BJ's.
 
Told you I was a dullard!

Sorry to press this point but I still haven't recovered from the vast over-consumption of alcohol from my holiday last week and I think I've de-natured my neurons :vomit:

I'm going to try and work this out so you can see my rationale and point out my errors/what I'm missing. Thank you in advance.

If BR1 is going to offer you the high he is likely to do it in 3 ways. He could bet his lead minus a chip ($2500) or 2x his lead minus a chip ($5000). Lets assume he uses the latter bet and doubles it he gets $10K out. Therefore you, with a deficit of $2750 needs to bet $13K to cover that and a BJ. Of course realizing that you are unlikely to bet anything less than $3K BR1 could bet $5.5K for the low or $11K for the surrender low. To cover $5.5K doubled you'd need to bet at least $14K; to cover $11K doubled you will have to bet max. We could follow this logic almost ad infinitum, but I will take it to one more level. BR1 may think that BR2 is smart and bet to cover his potential $5.5K bet with a $14K bet. This means BR1 can bet $16.5K for the high low and the only way BR1 can cover that is with $19.5K for the straight high.

Another possible way that BR1 may give you the high is by splitting his BR. To cover that with a single bet you'd need to bet £15.5K.

Am I on the right track? What am I missing that gives me the $15K figure?

Cheers

Reachy
 
15k

I should defer this to S. Yama, since he came up with 15K.

But 15K sounds reasonable to me for trying to take the high on someone who you think has secretly offered it. We're not talking about a precision calculation here, but human behavior. Someone using a secret bet can usually get away with overbetting the lead to cover a wider range of bets.

That's what Alpha did to me... :D
 
Couldn't resist!

Monkeysystem said:
We're not talking about a precision calculation here, but human behavior. Someone using a secret bet can usually get away with overbetting the lead to cover a wider range of bets.

That's what Alpha did to me... :D
Click to expand...

I finally found out where you got all your strategy play from - picking those ideas from the top players minds.

However I can see from your friends that not everyone agrees with the advice in that book either! :laugh:

I can see you've spent long hours at the computer too!

Forgive me it's a Friday! :cool:
 

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