Next to last hand. - What is the correct play ?

[PlayHunter]

Bet limits: min/max 100/1000 , double after split, surrender allowed (even after split), no double for less.

BR1 2755 bet 300, BR2 (me) 2256. For some reason BR1 only made a bet of 300, and BR2 placed a 1000 max bet.

- First question: what would have been the best bet for BR1 for this next to last hand ? (I am thinking at both 502 and 751 .. but which one ?)

- Second question: could I have improved my bet as BR2 ?

BR2 was dealt hard 20 and BR1 hard 12. Dealer up card 5. At this point BR1 did a big mistake to stand, instead to split. - So BR2 1000 bet would now become a 201 leader if dealer bust. - But BR2 did was to double. I am not sure if this double was good or not ?

- So, third question: BR2 double on hard 12 vs dealer 5 (and opponent 20) was correct in this context ?

- Fourth question: - But if BR2 had same bet but received and stand on a stiff hand instead of his 20 ?

 

[gronbog]

Bet limits: min/max 100/1000 , double after split, surrender allowed (even after split), no double for less.

BR1 2755 bet 300, BR2 (me) 2256. For some reason BR1 only made a bet of 300, and BR2 placed a 1000 max bet.

- First question: what would have been the best bet for BR1 for this next to last hand ? (I am thinking at both 502 and 751 .. but which one ?)

BR1 is just short of the magic 1/2 max bet threshold. With surrender allowed, BR1 still had a few options to cover you high. He could have bet between 501 and 996 to cover you high and still been able to surrender for the low. In that case, I, as BR1, would bet 996 in order to automatically cover as many other situations as possible.

- Second question: could I have improved my bet as BR2 ?

Even with his small bet, you can't cover BR1's double/split with a single bet and your max bet win does not give you a significant lead over his single bet win. If it were the final hand, I would still just make the easy max bet, but since there is one hand remaining, I would take the time to calculate the amount required to beat his single bet win; 800 in this case. If he does double or split, then I could then retake the high with a double of my own, for the same amount (no arithmetic needed!) or with a split.

BR2 was dealt hard 20 and BR1 hard 12. Dealer up card 5. At this point BR1 did a big mistake to stand, instead to split. - So BR2 1000 bet would now become a 201 leader if dealer bust. - But BR2 did was to double. I am not sure if this double was good or not ?

- So, third question: BR2 double on hard 12 vs dealer 5 (and opponent 20) was correct in this context ?

Based on your question, I think you meant that BR1 was dealt a hard 20 (i.e. a pair of 10s) and BR2 was dealt hard 12. If so, then, as you say, BR2 takes the lead by winning his hand. If it were the final hand, then this actually suggests to me that he should stand. However, it is the second last hand and BR2 will be out of it if he gets swung, which is a strong possibility with his stiff vs BR1's 20. There is a chance of busting when doubling, but the benefit of winning the double (max bet+ lead on the final hand) is enormous while the penalty for losing (out of it) is the same. Very tempting indeed. Without any actual numbers to back me up, I think that the slightly smaller chance of taking the lead combined very strong possibility of holding it (by doubling) beats a slightly larger chance of taking the lead with a much smaller chance of holding it (by standing).

- Fourth question: - But if BR2 had same bet but received and stand on a stiff hand instead of his 20 ?

I think you meant BR1 again here and that the logic is similar. If you're going to take a card, then the benefit of winning the double is massively better than for hitting while the penalty for losing is about the same either way. I think I would double.

(Look Ma, no sims!)

 

[PlayHunter]

Thanks Mr. Gronbog ! - I again learned some good strategy tips. Sorry for twisting BR1 with BR2 and vice versa for a couple of times. (can`t edit it anymore)

 

[BughouseMaster]

The fact that SURRENDER was actually available (1st time i ever saw) makes this example even trickier with all the added necessary calcs!