Puzzled on this pocket Aces !

[PlayHunter]

Last hand, Min/Max bet 100/1000 only one card to split aces. BR2 2000 chips bet 500 and BR1 2001 chips bet 500. BR2 soft 19 , BR1 AA, dealer up card 10.

BR2 stand on his 19 - is this correct (I think it is) or he should play something else ? - OK, now what BR1 should do: split aces or hit up to hard 14/soft 19 ?

I think is the case when split if allowed to draw after split aces, or hit if not allowed to draw after split aces. - But what if BR2 would had 18 or 20 instead ?

 

[gronbog]

Tricky Situation!

This is actually a very tricky situation for BR2, and it is one that happened to an opponent of mine (I was BR1 he was BR2). The situation was equivalent, only in my case, BR2 elected to double his soft 19. He had the misfortune of ending up with a stiff total. Can you see the dire implication of this result for him, given my pair of aces?

So as BR2, I would be inclined to stand on my soft 19, and hope for a swing, no matter what the dealer is showing.

Once BR2 has stood, then BR1 should play for the same result. There is no reason for him to double or split. According to Wong, he should hit to hard 15, however you do raise a good question about which soft total to stand on. Soft 19 or better would guarantee a lock, and any soft total less than 17 can only be improved, but it's not clear whether hitting or standing would be best for soft 17 and soft 18.

 

[PlayHunter]

I took the numbers (hard14/soft19) from Ken`s "Protect against a full or half swing" chart. - So, BR1 should hit to hard 15 instead to hard 14 ?

But if BR1 could draw multiple cards after split Aces, (and double after split) still hitting would be better ? (I think would improve to have two soft hands to play)

And what would be correct for the other scenarios when BR2 stand on 20, and then 18 (with all the same details). - Can you run some sims for these scenarios ?

 

[gronbog]

I want to point out the answer to my own question, since PlayHunter didn't answer it in his response:

This is actually a very tricky situation for BR2, and it is one that happened to an opponent of mine (I was BR1 he was BR2). The situation was equivalent, only in my case, BR2 elected to double his soft 19. He had the misfortune of ending up with a stiff total. Can you see the dire implication of this result for him, given my pair of aces?

The implication is that I now could generate a lock by either doubling or splitting my aces.

So as BR2, I would be inclined to stand on my soft 19, and hope for a swing, no matter what the dealer is showing.

Confirmed by my simulator. Vs all dealer up cards, standing is superior to doubling by a wide margin. In this particular case (dealer showing 10) hitting is a close second:
Stand: 21.98%
Hit: 21.46%

 

[gronbog]

I took the numbers (hard14/soft19) from Ken`s "Protect against a full or half swing" chart. - So, BR1 should hit to hard 15 instead to hard 14 ?

My sim results agree with Ken's chart. BR1 should hit to hard 14 or soft 18.

But if BR1 could draw multiple cards after split Aces, (and double after split) still hitting would be better ? (I think would improve to have two soft hands to play)

I'm not so sure about this assertion. The actual percentages for the usual "one card only on split aces" are: Stand: 78.06%, Split: 63.95%, Double 38.59%. 14+% would be a lot to make up for that rule change.

And what would be correct for the other scenarios when BR2 stand on 20, and then 18 (with all the same details). - Can you run some sims for these scenarios ?

With the dealer showing 10:
BR2 stands on 17: BR1 should hit to soft 17 and stand on all hard totals
BR2 stands on 18: BR1 should hit to soft 18 or hard 13
BR2 stands on 19: BR1 should hit to soft 18 or hard 14
BR2 stands on 20: BR1 should split
BR2 stands on 21: BR1 should hit to soft 19 or hard 15