Ranking bad beats!!!!!

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by swog, Mar 14, 2010.

  1. swog

    swog Elite Member Staff Member

    I just finished my unsuccessful run through the Riverwind tournament, and started to wonder, statistically, where this ranks among all-time bad beats.

    Quarter Final action, 3 of 6 advance, starting BR $2,000, Min bet $25, no Max bet, BJ pays 2 to 1, no Insu, even money, nor Surr.

    Final hand, I'm on the button, betting and acting first, although the "last action" button is to my left, don't ask me why they do it that way.

    Just to steam me a bit more, I'm on the button because with 6 hands to go BR 5 goes all in with his last 1000 and hits a 2 to 1 BJ, or I would have been last to bet with 4 players. He goes from BR out to BR safely in first, and 2 hands later the new BR 5 goes out, which would have ended the round, but I digress.

    4 players left BR 1 has 3000+ so I ignore him.

    BR3 (me) 1500
    Br4 950
    BR2 1875
    BR1 3000+

    I bet 425 to cover BR4, and cover BR2's push,BR4 bet 250, and BR2 75 to cover me, in case BR4 hit an all-in BJ.

    Br4 bet just enough to swing me, but neglected to consider a big BJ, which he should remember, since he hit a big 2 to 1 BJ on the final hand of the previous round. So, his only shot is to full swing me, get a hand at least two higher than me allowing the dealer to have a hand to lose to BR4, yet beat me.
    When the cards are dealt, since I bet first, I received my cards first, "Boom"
    20. Game over, there is no way the dealer can get a higher total and still lose to BR4, except...........
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Br4 BJ, and dealer 3 8 10 ...21
    That may be hard to top!!!!!
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2010
  2. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    Ouch! That hurts to think about.
     
  3. LeftNut

    LeftNut Top Member

    Gee-zus, Swog! That had to really hurt. What a horribly bad beat! :cry:

    I heard from a witness that you took the beat with class, no surprise there. Great bet with the worst possible result.
     
  4. TJ4justice

    TJ4justice Member

    How about this one, Final hand top 2 advance, min bet $25 max $2500 BJ 2 to 1 I am BR1 Betting 1st

    BR1 (me) $6000 Bet $350
    BR2 $2000 Bet $2000
    BR3 $2100 Bet $2100

    Cards come out
    BR1 (me) TT
    BR2 Ace Ten
    BRe Ace Ten
    Dealer 8 up Turns over 3 hit a ten for 21 I lose
    $5650
    $6000
    $6300

    Thats one where you walk away talking to yourself
     
    KenSmith and gronbog like this.
  5. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

    OUCH!!

    My bit of strategy advice on this one is to go find the bar and knock a few down.
     
    KenSmith and Dakota like this.
  6. Dakota

    Dakota Top Member

    Your bar advice works for many things! Also, the youtube song has been taken down. Which one was it?!
     
  7. Monkeysystem

    Monkeysystem Top Member Staff Member

    Thanks for pointing that out! I replaced it.
     
  8. gronbog

    gronbog Top Member

    To quantify the depth of your pain, and assuming that you don't split yourself into trouble, you can only lose if both opponents get blackjack and you lose your hand. A simulation shows that, before the cards were dealt, you had a 99.90% chance of advancing:

    Player 1:
    Finishes 1: 95,164,015/100,000,000 = 95.1640% Standard Error: 0.002145%
    Ties for 1: 378,769/100,000,000 = 0.3788% Standard Error: 0.000614%
    Finishes 2: 4,343,055/100,000,000 = 4.3431% Standard Error: 0.002038%
    Ties for 2: 18,218/100,000,000 = 0.0182% Standard Error: 0.000135%
    Finishes 3: 95,943/100,000,000 = 0.0959% Standard Error: 0.000310%
    Reaches goal: 99,904,057/100,000,000 = 99.9041% Standard Error: 0.000310%
    Player 2:
    Finishes 1: 1,982,118/100,000,000 = 1.9821% Standard Error: 0.001394%
    Ties for 1: 378,769/100,000,000 = 0.3788% Standard Error: 0.000614%
    Finishes 2: 19,138,489/100,000,000 = 19.1385% Standard Error: 0.003934%
    Ties for 2: 30,855,245/100,000,000 = 30.8552% Standard Error: 0.004619%
    Finishes 3: 47,645,379/100,000,000 = 47.6454% Standard Error: 0.004994%
    Reaches goal: 52,354,621/100,000,000 = 52.3546% Standard Error: 0.004994%
    Player 3:
    Finishes 1: 2,475,098/100,000,000 = 2.4751% Standard Error: 0.001554%
    Finishes 2: 45,284,442/100,000,000 = 45.2844% Standard Error: 0.004978%
    Ties for 2: 30,837,027/100,000,000 = 30.8370% Standard Error: 0.004618%
    Finishes 3: 21,403,433/100,000,000 = 21.4034% Standard Error: 0.004102%
    Reaches goal: 78,596,567/100,000,000 = 78.5966% Standard Error: 0.004102%​

    In these results, tying for second counts as achieving your goal although, in reality, a probability should probably be applied to your chances of winning a playoff.

    After the initial deal, you still had a 93.06% chance of advancing:

    Player 1:
    Finishes 1: 86,114,475/100,000,000 = 86.1145% Standard Error: 0.003458%
    Finishes 2: 0/100,000,000 = 0.0000% Standard Error: 0.000000%
    Ties for 2: 6,948,980/100,000,000 = 6.9490% Standard Error: 0.002543%
    Finishes 3: 6,936,545/100,000,000 = 6.9365% Standard Error: 0.002541%
    Reaches goal: 93,063,455/100,000,000 = 93.0635% Standard Error: 0.002541%
    Player 2:
    Finishes 1: 0/100,000,000 = 0.0000% Standard Error: 0.000000%
    Finishes 2: 6,936,545/100,000,000 = 6.9365% Standard Error: 0.002541%
    Ties for 2: 6,948,980/100,000,000 = 6.9490% Standard Error: 0.002543%
    Finishes 3: 86,114,475/100,000,000 = 86.1145% Standard Error: 0.003458%
    Reaches goal: 13,885,525/100,000,000 = 13.8855% Standard Error: 0.003458%
    Player 3:
    Finishes 1: 13,885,525/100,000,000 = 13.8855% Standard Error: 0.003458%
    Finishes 2: 86,114,475/100,000,000 = 86.1145% Standard Error: 0.003458%
    Finishes 3: 0/100,000,000 = 0.0000% Standard Error: 0.000000%
    Reaches goal: 100,000,000/100,000,000 = 100.0000% Standard Error: 0.000000%​
     
  9. gronbog

    gronbog Top Member

    BR2 should have bet 2075 in order to eliminate the possibility of ending up tied for 2nd with BR3 should they both lose their hands.

    (Note that TJ has BR2 and BR3 mis-labelled in his original post. BR2 is the player starting with 2100 in chips).
     
  10. Fortunate to never sustain such a bad beat like those 2 above....................... having said this, now how about posting your biggest SELF-INFLICTED bad beat? (i.e. bone-head, terrible move that caused you not to advance, cash, or end up with significantly more prize money than had you not make your SELF-INFLICTED move?

    Since people don't post on this board very much, I'll wait a week and see if any of you want to bite. Gronbog? Ken? Dakota? Dont be shy! Lets hear'em ^_^
     
  11. gronbog

    gronbog Top Member

  12. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    I’m sure there are threads with some of my screw ups here too. I don’t want to relive them by searching though!
     
    BughouseMaster likes this.
  13. Gronbog & Ken:

    Thanks for responding, guys! And Gronbog, I feel your pain on that 20K mistake. Damn. Idk what I'd do if that happened to me...

    So here's what happened to me at the latest $150k Vegas BJ tourn at Harrah's:

    First off, this was my very 1st major BJ tournament in Vegas, thanks to the heavy 6 hours of play at $100/hand I put in on NYE at Bally's (which was the first time in at least 3 years that I had played BJ at a CET company) so I was quite excited & thankful that my host put me in this huge event and was really looking forward to this tournament! I had actually requested to play in both this and the back-to-back $75k one at Paris but was told she could only help me with one so of course I picked the $150k! When I was still playing at the Beau Rivage, I had been invited to the $150K Jack Daniel's BJ tournament a few times, but never made it past the 2nd round as I didn't know nearly the BJ strategy I know now!

    Anyway, fast forwarding to the 2nd round of the $150K Harrah's tournament, I went all-in on around hand 10 of 15 since two people had about a 600-700 chip lead on me (1700-1000) and only 2 were advancing. Fortunately I won the all-in hand, putting my chip count to roughly 2000. After proper sizing of my bets to my opponents trying to catch me and some good cards, I found myself as BR1 on the Final Hand! I believe I was first or 2nd to act so I'm eyeing 3rd & 4th place to see if they can catch me. This was the situation:

    BR1 (me): ~2200
    BR2: ~2100
    BR3: 900
    BR4: 800

    Two advance. 25 min, no max. Easy ass decision, right? APPARENTLY NOT! Instead of simply betting the bloody minimum (25) and having a virtual lock unless BR3 gets BJ (but obv not thinking about the BJ aspect at the time), I find myself on the button and now I start counting my chips and trying to add up 1825 in one pile to take both the high & low on both BR3 and BR4 and advance easily. But then, of course, being the ultra detail-oriented guy I am, unnecessarily over-analyze the situation and count the smaller stack (2200-1825) and try to calculate quickly what the total is all the while the heavy-set, Caucasian female dealer suddenly rushes me and says, "You have to make a bet now!" ...

    It was at this moment where I froze and suddenly became frantic for some reason with my heart now racing fast. Was it the pressure of never playing a Vegas major BJ event even though I had a no-brainer bet in front of me?? APPARENTLY SO! Already having separated the 2 piles (1825 & 375) and knowing excatly what to do, I quickly push out my bet in the betting circle................ only to realize that I pushed out the LARGER stack! **DAMN!!** I'm so pissed off inside knowing that was a costly mistake but am still optimistically hoping I get a strong total but of course I don't. Ended up with a stiff hand against dealer high card (8?), hit and of course I bust. Game over. Can't even rebuy since I had already advanced from round 1. What especially pissed me off is that had I simply bet the minimum I cruise to round 3 & get a guaranteed $750 in PTYL chips! My biggest BJ tournament mistake to date and hopefully my last. I know it was just $750 in freeplay chips, but Gronbog, I swear I felt as bad as you did on your $20k mistake.
     
    KenSmith likes this.
  14. gronbog

    gronbog Top Member

    I feel your pain :confused:
     
    BughouseMaster likes this.
  15. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    The combination of time pressure and over-thinking is a common culprit.

    I know I have often been analyzing some small extra edge when a dealer starts rushing me. The whole mental picture of the game can collapse then too. The result is usually bad.

    It’s an intense process. I eventually got better at the stress, but I never conquered it completely.

    As for betting the wrong stack, almost everyone has done that one too. At least once or twice.
     
    BughouseMaster likes this.
  16. Oh my gosh.... you nailed it on the head when you said it's an intense process! What makes my situation more sad, is that, even if I didn't let her get to me and I continued to analyze the chip stacks, what's the worst thing that would've happened? That she makes me bet the minimum??? :rolleyes::eek::rolleyes:
     
  17. Oh yeah... one thing that prompted me to push the larger stack in at that exact moment in time were the words that I read from CTS: If you have to make a decision in a hurry, bet the max. So thanks, Wong, for costing me at least $750 in my 1st Vegas Blackjack tournament!!!
     
  18. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    Well, you could have gotten a blackjack. It would haved looked like a great move then! :D
     
    BughouseMaster likes this.

Share This Page