# Second to last hand...

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by rounder21, Feb 1, 2007.

1. ### rounder21New Member

BR1 has 23,500
BR2 is all-in with 10,000

What is best bet for BR1???

2. ### toolman1Active Member

I would handle it this way:
If surrender is allowed: BR1 should bet: (3,500 * 2) - a chip).
If surrender is not allowed: BR1 should bet: (3,500 - a chip)

3. ### fgk42New Member

My personal choice in this situation is to bet ½ of BR2 – 5,000.

My rationale is this:

Assuming no swing, If BR2 wins their bet then they are 20,000 and I would be 28,500 and I like the 8,500 lead going into the last hand. If BR1 bets min and both win BR2 = 20,000 and BR1 = 24,000. Still a lead and still good position.

Now the downfall to betting 5,000 is if BR2 gets a swing. Then BR2 becomes BR1 with 20,000 and BR1 becomes BR2 with 18,500. Of course BR1 always has the option of surrender to keep BR1 spot. If BR1, betting 5,000 gets a stiff and the dealer shows a face I would simply surrender and remain BR1 at 21,000 to BR2’s 20,000.

The other rational for betting 5,000 on this hand is that on the final hand BR1 will have the button. Therefore the bigger lead I have the better. I don’t like to bet first but I’d feel better with 28,500 than 24,000 (BR2 having 20,000)

What I wouldn’t do is correlate with BR2’s bet and risk the swing.

4. ### ReachyNew Member

position

I don't want to give up my lead since I act 1st on the last hand. Therefore I do what toolman said, either 6500 or 3000 depending on surrender options.

Cheers

Reachy

5. ### fgk42New Member

This is interesting to see the style of the players.

I understand the bets you and Toolman made. You're playing on the expected RESULTS of BR2.

I on the other hand an playing on the BET of BR2.

It's an interesting concept. I'm surprised no one has said they would simply just bet min - I've SEEN that happen many times online.

As far as surrender I think all of us are assuming surrender is available.

Question - are they many tourney's where surrender is NOT available?

6. ### ReachyNew Member

Explanation

fgk

What do you mean when you say we are playing the expected result and you are playing the bet? If BR2 had bet differently I may have as well...

Cheers

Reachy

7. ### toolman1Active Member

The large majority of B&M tournaments do not have the surrender option. Seems to me that the percentage of tournaments with surrender is greater in LV than the rest of the country. This is just from my observation, no stats to back them up.

8. ### fgk42New Member

Simple Reachy,

If BR2 has bet differently I’m sure you would have bet differently, as I would have. The reasons our bets were different, is related to our differences in philosophy.

BR2 BR – 10,00 and bets 10,000. Assuming a win their BR = 20,000

BR1 BR - 23,500 so by betting 3,000 (3,500 – a chip) your bet is under the assumption of BR2 winning and BR1 losing – this still maintains a chip lead.

My calculation of a 5,000 bet (assuming surrender) is that BR2 win = 20,000 and surrender of BR1 = still gives a lead 21,000 to 20,000 but the lead is more aggressive if both players win 28,500 vs. 20,000 (compared to the 3,000 bet you and Toolman calculated 26,500 vs. 20,000 (3,500-a chip)).

Are they really THAT different? No. I just have found that, for me, it is easier to dissect my opponent’s bets rather than calculating their winning, then basing my bet from my BR to their expected win. I’m trying to simplify my calculations because I spend way too much time chip counting!

My play is aggressive, at times, and I try to do “unconventional” plays/bets. When all players think and act alike then the most skilled player has the advantage. Since I’m NOT the most skilled (I’m just a ploppy – ask BS) I tweak things and approach it from different angles.

That’s why I answer so many of these questions – it’s my attempt to learn as much as possible so that one day I too can get an invite to a “SPECIAL TOURNEY”. Until then back to the grind.

Toolman:
I didn't realize that many tourneys DIDN'T use surrender. Wow! I've NEVER played in a tourney that DIDN'T use surrender. I'm not sure what I'd do

9. ### ReachyNew Member

Special Needs

With surrender I would bet 6.5K since that's surrender back and gives you a nice lead if you both win. It's not difficult to calculate - ((BR1-BR2)*2)-chip

If there was no surrender what would you bet?

If BR2 had 10K and you had 21K what would you bet?

Cheers

Reachy

10. ### fgk42New Member

Ha ha ha - now I'm on the button! :laugh:

Without surrender? I bet min in both instances, wink at the dealer (assuming the dealer is a she )and hope for a dealer BJ!

11. ### toolman1Active Member

fgk42,

Using my bet, you miss calculated what BR1 would have if he wins. With surrender, I said the bet should be "(3,500 * 2) - a chip). This means a bet of \$6,500. So if we both win I have exactly \$30,000 going into the last hand while BR2 has exactly \$20,000. Since BR1 goes first on the last hand, like you said, the more money the better. Plus, using my bet, BR1 accomplishes the larger lead without risking giving up the lead going into the last hand. Not sure this extra \$1,500 (30,000 - 28,500) is worth anything but it is there.

You said your play is aggressive to make up for whatever. But in this case it is actually a little on the conservative side.

On a separate issue, chip counting is absolutely critical to be a successful tournament player. Trying to skirt around this by changing one's betting style is, as the BORG would say, "futile".

That reminds me Reachy, did you see the Star Trek exhibit in LV?

12. ### fgk42New Member

Not a problem. I've got this whole chip business under control.

Just went got back from the friendly cybernetic surgeon with some additions for my next BJT!

1. Chip calculating eyepiece - no more eye fatigue and instantly counts all colors
2. Re-hydration cord that hooks to the water pack but can be replaced with White Zinfindale bottles!
3. Probability table headpiece that allows me to calculate the percentages of hitting versus staying when necessary!

Where there's a will......:joker:

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13. ### Rando21New Member

Table awareness is volumes harder in the live match....the internet game cant begin to prepare you for this difference...its like playing war as a child with toy guns vs the real dealy with live ammo and tanks and stuff.

For your Borg suit Fred....you need to make an additional attachment point to get rid of the Used Zinfiadell ...remember...once you are seated ...no bathroom breaks until the round is finished...then theres me just loving beer...

14. ### fgk42New Member

That's already installed but in order to keep this a PG13 site and not incur the "Wrath of Ken" and get banned I figured I'd truncate the photo :joker:

15. ### toolman1Active Member

Let me restate, for easy reference only, the first post on this thread:
Now, as BR1, and considering that BR1 is betting first on the last hand, I was wondering about the possibility of going for the jugular right now so the last hand can become meaningless. So what would happen if BR1 bets \$17,500?

* If BR1 and BR2 have the same results (each win, lose or push), then BR1 completely locks out BR2. The last last hand would be meaningless.
* A win by BR1 completely locks out BR2. The last hand would be meaningless.
* A loss by BR2 completely locks out BR2. Last hand not even played.
* A push by BR1 guarantees that BR1 would still have the lead going into the last hand.
* A push by BR2 would leave BR1 still in the lead if BR1 surrenders.

* If BR2 swings BR1 then BR2 completely locks out BR1. However, BR1 may be able to see the swing coming and surrender, in which case BR1 is still alive although at a big disadvantage in the last hand.

I don't have the time to work out the percentages. Any help and/or opinions needed.

PS: fgk42 - You are getting good at manipulating computer images. Let's just hope the tournament rules are rewritten to prohibit the BORG from playing before they arrive on earth. :laugh:

Last edited: Feb 1, 2007
16. ### ReachyNew Member

Very interesting approach...

I've long had the idea that the penultimate hand is often far more important than the last hand, especially when acting last on the final hand since you have to act first on the hand before. You cock that hand up and you are buggered.

I'm going to attempt a live analysis of the scenario so bear with me.

With a 6.5K bet it goes like this (assume you surrender with perfect accuracy):

Positon on final hand
BR1 wins there and then = 48%
BR1 has 1/2max lead or greater = 30%+2%+1% = 33%
BR1 has less than 1/2max lead = 19%
BR1 becomes BR2 = 0%

With a >1/2 max bet BR1 can get high low on the final hand regardless of button position for an 86% chance of success which gives us 28.4% (33% x 86%) in the final analysis. With a small lead acting first you may well have to give up the high or low so we'll call that 50% chance of success, which when combined with 19% gives us 9.5%. Therefore your probability of winning the tournament with a 6.5K bet on the 2nd to last hand is 48%+28.4%+9.5%=85.9%

If we bet 17K:

BR1 wins there and then = 48%
BR1 has a >max bet lead = 33%
BR1 has a >1/2max bet lead = 1%
BR1 has a small lead = 6%
BR1 becomes BR2 = 12%

Applying the same logic as before with a >max bet/all-in lead BR1 can still lose to a BR2 BJ unless they bet enough to cover it which would then expose them to a swing (a 22K bet from BR1 would resolve that problem since they could bet to cover a BJ on the final hand without risking the swing). Assume that BR1 bets the minimum since that gives them a 96% chance of success as opposed to 88% if they bet to cover a BJ, this gives us 31.7%. With a >1/2 max lead we get 86% x 1% = 0.9%. With a small lead from BR1 we get 3% and with BR1 becoming BR2 we get 1.4%. That gives us a chance of success of 48%+31.7%+3%+0.9%+1.4%=85% which slightly less than the 85.9% chance with the 6.5K bet.

Here's where it gets interesting. If we bet 22K instead of 17K we can protect ourselves more from the all-in blackjack from BR2. So instead of a 96% chance of success we get 97.8% since we can still be beaten by the BJ if we lose or push (I suggest a bet of 5K on the last hand). So if we redo the above maths with 97.8% instead of 96% we get 86.8% which is now greater than the probability of success with the 6.5K bet.

So on that basis a big bet designed to take an almost unassailable lead on the last hand is better than a small bet designed to protect the lead, however small, for the last hand.

I will analyse it in more detail later but I would appreciate some feedback on the logic and calculations. I think the numbers are so close that because of certain assumptions and other unaccounted for factors either one of these approaches may be equally successful. It just depends on whether you like the rollercoaster ride of a big bet approach or the more smoother ride of the small bet.

What do you think?

Cheers

Reachy

17. ### toolman1Active Member

DA. Or is that WHAT DA? JEEZ!!! Here's the situation. I'd like to sleep tonight. If I get all these numbers swimming around in my head, there's no way by brain can relax and allow me to sleep. So I'll get back to this when I can. In the mean time, post some more stuff on this subject like you said you would. JEEEEEEEEEZZZZZZZZ. HOLY :cow: and of course :yikes:

18. ### rounder21New Member

Thanks for the great responses...

I was in this situation and bet 20,000 for basically the reasons toolman mentioned. My thinking was if we both lose, game over I win, if we both win, game over I win. that simple. Later with more time I thought the 17,000 would be better so I could still catch him on a swing on the last hand if he's lucky enough to catch me on the swing on this hand. I will read the last few posts in more detail. Thanks for the responses and percentages.

Good Cards,
Rounder21

19. ### rounder21New Member

My mistake...

BR1 would only be able to swing BR2 on the last hand if BR1 pushes and BR2 loses 2nd to last hand. So I like an even more aggressive bet protecting from the blackjack.

Thanks again,
Rounder21

Last edited: Feb 1, 2007
20. ### toolman1Active Member

Minor point.
Your actual bet under this scenario should be \$17,500 not \$17,000. If you both win the second from last hand then the bankrolls going into the last hand are BR1 = \$41,000, BR2=\$20,000. This enables BR1 to bet minimum on the last hand and make it impossible for BR2 to catch him unless BR2 gets a BJ.

Last edited: Feb 1, 2007