Strategy for low max-bet tournament?

[toonces]

The local tournaments in Chicago have the following format:

Round 1:
5 to a table
3 advance
$1000 starting money
$50-$500 bet size
20 hands
Can bet it all on the last hand

Round 2:
6 players to a table
1 advance
$1500 starting money
$50-$500 bet size
20 hands
Can bet it all on the last hand

Round 3:
7 players to a table
2 advance
$2000 starting money
$50-$500 bet size
20 hands
Can bet it all on the last hand

Finals:
7 players to a table
$2500 starting money
$50-$1000 bet size
20 hands
Can bet it all on the last hand

I can handle the strategy for Round 1. But in Round 2 and 3, I'm concerned that min bets for the first 10 hands or so, followed by catching up later if necessary is seeming to be a bad strategy. The problem is:
1) Betting range is only 10x, meaning there's not a lot of catch-up room
2) Since everyone starts with 3 max bets, a player that's aggressive early is not likely to bust out.
3) Allowing unlimited bets in the last hand messes with the philosophy of it being critical to get a lead going into the last hand.
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Default Strategy: Min bet until it is unlikely that I will be BR*, at which point I bet whatever it takes to become BR*.

The problem in this tournament is that by the time you realize that the leaders won't be coming back to you, you often are 2 max bets behind. I can see 2 alternate strategies:

Alt #1: Bet enough to be BR1 early and keep bet-matching with big bets if necessary to maintain your lead.

Alt #2: Lay low and if you fall behind, just try to keep within 50% of the leaders so that you can win on the last hand, rather than risking it on winning multiple max bets.

Which of these strategies would you recommend for Round 2? What about Round 3?

 

[toolman1]

Be BR1 on final hand - almost critical

Sounds like you are describing the Majestic Star - Indiana tournament. Not only do they have bad rules but it is, by far, the worst run tournament I have ever played. I have played there 5 times and I am amazed that thay have not improved their procedures.

I asked a similar question to yours a while back. You may want to read that thread for your answer:

Blackjackjack Tournaments (Land Based Casinos)​

Thread: Best strategy for tournaments with no limit betting​

(Last post to this thread was 6-8-05. Your should find it on about page 3)​

I will leave those better qualified than me to answer most of your questions but I do have a comment about your points 2 and 3.

Point 2: Since the players at this tournament are generally not "tournament strategy savy", they do bust out more than normal. For example, I was at the 2nd round in the July, 2005 event when all players (yes, including yours truly) except 1 busted out leaving that one player to win by default. I and another player were the the last 2 challengers standing. We both busted out trying to catch the leader. My observation is that many players do bust out by betting too aggressively at the beginning.​

Point3: In a tournament where going all in on the last hand is allowed, being BR1 going into the last hand becomes more important than ever. Most of the players, maybe 75% and at times all, will go all in on the last hand. Depending on your betting position, being BR1 in this tournament often allows you to take the high and the low. That, needless to say, is where you want to be in most any tournament.​

Good Luck and maybe, with a little luck, I'll see you at the final table in Nov., 2005.

 

[toonces]

Hi, Toolman. Yes, this is the same tournament. It's been quite frustrating to me as I've played in it probably 7 times in the past 18 months and made the final table (in last place) only once. I've also never got chosen as a wild card.

The thing I am concerned about is that the combination of low max bets for all other hands combined with an all-in max bet seems to mess with the traditional strategy. There's no way to do a progression as there is usually a need to make up 1-2 max bets.

The question is whether the longshot of making up 1-2 big bets in 8 hands is worse than the longshot of winning at the end from behind.

 

[toolman1]

Again, strive to be BR1 GOING INTO final hand

First, I don't think your track record is that bad. The probability of making the final table for the average player in this tournament is about 1 in 17 (120 / 7). You've made it 1 in 7.

I may get some disagreement on this but when I play in tournaments where a all in bet is possible, I do not use any progressions. I usually wait to see if another player gets to 1 max bet ahead of me. If he does and continues to bet wild, I sit tight to see what will happen. Often he will loose his lead. If he doesn't then I start making max bets to catch up. If its near the last hand, I continue the max bets in order to have the lead going into the last hand. If I bust out, and that occurs often, well I gave it my best shot.

When all in bets are permitted on the last hand, you should never be satisfied with being anything but BR1 going into the last hand. Playing normal blackjack you will win 44% of the time. Therefore, if you are BR1 on the final hand and you go all in, you will win the table about 41%-42% of the time since a natural by another player can beat you and a push - well who knows. Your odds are greater naturally if you bet late and can take the low and the high.

I guess what I'm really trying to say is trying to come from behind on the last hand always puts you in a weak position. If you want to win the table, go for BR1 before the last hand.

Hope this helps and good luck!