The 12% Swing Strikes Again

J

Jackaroo

New Member
I almost lost my tournament cherry this past Thursday at Turning Stone where I finished 2nd. The format and entry ($25) were the same as the regular monthly Blackjack Double Header (refer to listing in Members Area). The casino added $5800 to the normal prize pool of $4200 for an almost unbelievable overlay of 138%! First place was $5000 and second was $2500.

I was BR1 on the last hand in position 6 and on the button. There were still 6 players at the table but only 3 of us were in contention for first. Betting limits are 10-300, no surrender.

Player….BR……...Bet….Hand
*P6……..825…...250….T, 4
..P1……..550…...300….7, 3
..P3……..450…...300….T, 2
..Dealer…………………....A, ?

Nobody took insurance. I, of course, was hoping for the dealer BJ. Not this time. I decided not to double and instead just hit trying to make a hand.

It turns out I not only miscounted BR2 but also my own chips (!). Based on a reconstruction using the final bankrolls, here’s how it went:

Player…..BR…..Bet…..Hand……………........Result
*P6……..775….250…..T, 4, T……………......525
..P1…..…545….300…..7, 3, 2 DD (200)…....45
..P3…..…450….300…..T, 2, 8 DD (150)…..900
..Dealer…………………...A, 4, T, 3

Analyzing the hand the next day, I concluded I made two mistakes in strategy.
(1) My initial bet should have been 300. I think the general precept of not risking more chips than necessary to reach an objective is okay when protecting a lead in earlier hands but not necessarily on the final hand. In this case, 250 was no better than 300 in getting the low since I was pretty sure the others would bet max.
(2) After the dealer did not have BJ, I should have doubled for less to cover P1 with an all-in DD. Another 70 added to my 250 would have done it and I still would have maintained the low.

Am I on track with this analysis?
 
"Right, I knew that"

Yeah, I just figured it was a catchy title. Besides, it would be 12% from the swinger's point of view, would it not? :cool:

But your post reminded me that I had written a reply to Ken on the 88% thread, which I have just posted.
 
12% Only for one

Its only 12% for Br2 .Br 3 has to swing you and have Br 2 lose or push his hand.So Br 3 need 2 swings or a swing & 1/2 swing.
 
Oops, there are 3 players here!

You're right again, Joep. Man, this stuff is complicated even with hindsight. :juggle:
 
It will come

Jackaroo be patient it will come to you its all a matter of flying time.The more you play the more you will learn and discover.I remember a time in the beginning when somone asked me why didn't you take the low.You know what I had no idea what they were talking about.I just knew how much I was behind and what I needed to bet to get the lead.The new players now have so much more out there for them to improve their game fast.I learned the hard way with my money,this site never existed.I won 1 tournament and finshed second for a total amount of 70,000 and had not even read Wong"s book.I would venture to say that the tournament that I finished 2nd in I would have won it if I knew what I was doing. that alone cost me 40,000.In hindsight my results in Blackjack Tournaments have been way above the curve as have been some of the other players that post here so I cant complain.Use this site for what it was set up for ,a place for tournament junkies to share knowledge and Bust Balls on eachother.Speaking of busting balls I sure do miss HOLLYWOOD. :(
 
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