Theoretical

S

S. Yama

Active Member
Player Theoretical Win/Los is one of the main tools for evaluating casino players, used by many departments, including casino marketing.
It is also known by other names, simply abbreviated as Theo, and older form Earning Potential.

It is simplified and supposedly standardized way of estimating value of a customer to casino. In theory it should be result of the numbers of plying decision times the bet size times the particular edge the casino holds on this game.

However, almost every corporation, or even casinos within the corporation use different models.
It is calculated as the average bet times hours times a specific multiplier. For slower games like craps, pai-gow poker, and baccarat the multiplier is 50% to 66%. When casinos include odds in your average bet for craps game then it may be as low as 25%. For faster games and the ones with higher casino edge like 3 Card Poker and Let It Ride, or Roulette the multiplier is 110% to 120%. In blackjack the standard is 70% to 100%.

So, if you play blackjack and the particular casino gives you 75% for the Theo, you would need to have average bet of $500 and play for just over nine hours to achieve level of Theoretical Win of $3,500.

To complicated things a bit more, in blackjack games many system have an option where pit boss can override the default rating and give two or three different skill levels and three speed ratings. It could be slow, normal, and fast and you could be soft, normal, or hard player – all of it would influence the multiplier and thus the theo. Fortunately it is rarely utilized.

S. Yama
 
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Many thanks

Many thanks - once again, you continue to post relevant, factual and easy to understand information and are indeed an asset to this website. I was hoping to hear from you on this topic and was not dissapointed! From your example, I "reverse engineer" a hold of approximatley 2% based on 60 hands per hour for blackjack - is this approximately correct?
 
My system is easy

I call and ask if I can get in, if they say yes, I show up. If they say no, I stay home.

It has worked for years...LOL
 
more on theo

I got some PM that made me realize that I may have not been completely clear on the theo subject. So let me write a bit more about it.

Theoretical is a number that casino’s player tracking computer system creates based on one’s credited play. It helps casino determine value of the customer, his mailings, invites, and different level of comps. This could be a base for airfare, cash backs, etc.
The theo is usualy accumulated during the whole trip and I know only of one chain and one idividual casino (perhaps there are more) that for their marketing purpose do automatic conversion and divide the total trip theo into days the player stayed, coming up with a “theoretical daily loss”. It is easier to generate good theo by having longer stays in one casino.

If you want to know the particular casino system, play one type of game, know the time played and the average bet the pit boss gave you – and then ask a host about your theo. Some stores have “Player’s Clubs” that will tell you this number.
Be aware that often times pit boss will not be honest with you. Often times you may ask about your averege bet, and the pit boss, for example, will tell you: Well.. you bet $50 to $100, so I give you $80 average.
Then you may say: I’ve never bet less than $100.
So the pit boss, goes: Okay, you got $100 average.
Only to find out through the host that he gave you $50 or $25.
I digressed.

Once you have the numbers you may do a quick math to find out the multiplier for any particular game.
If you played three hours and they gave you $150 average bet, and your theo is $360 it means that its default is (at least what you’re getting) 80%. 3 times 150 times k(the mulitpier) =360
x = 80%
If they use 120% multiplier for rullete and you played two and half hours betting $100 every spin – your theoretical will be $240 (120% x $100 x 2hours = $240 theo)

Going back to bj. As some of you know, it is standard practice for casinos to assume that average player loses 1.2 of his average bet an hour (plays with 2% disadvantage at the speed of about 60 hands an hour). So if one bets $100 for one hour he would be expected to lose 1.2 of his averege bet which would be $120. This would be somewhat close to the theoretical if casino used 100% multiplier, less for a bad player, but much bigger theoretical than real expected loss for a perfect basic strategy player.
So for the casino that was the initial reason for this conversation, to get theo of $3,500 one needs to get average bet of $3,500 for one hour if they use multiplier of 100%, or two hours at $1,750 level, or seven hours at $500. If the multiplier they use is 70% then one would need conversely bet $5,000 for an hour, or $2,500 for two hours, or ten hours at $500 level.

You can also build your theoretical by playing video poker. You can find casinos that may give you 3% of your coins-in dollars toward your theoretical on full pay schedule, but more and more often you will be credited just one percent to two percent –especially if there is any cash back program involved. Many casinos will have different theoretical for almost every different VP and slot machine. I don’t know the exact numbers for that specific store but kris21 data looks right.

Hope it helps,
S. Yama

(I made some changes to my post late Monday night)
 
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a litlle changes

I made a few changes to some numbers in my above post.
The reason is that at first I used assumption, which some casinos subscribe to, that the average player plays with 2% disadvantage. Recently I talked to a few execs who believed that the number is 1.2%, and another number often cited number is 1.5%. Standards are changing. These numbers would effect how well theoretical win/loss correlates to real loses. But then, we would have to settle on the speed of game, and so on. The undeniable truth is that if one is playing basic strategy or knows a few legal tricks, one should not lose anywhere near the theoretical. We are talking long run, anything can happen within a few hands or sessions.

S. Y.
 
Theoretical Detail

I am at a loss on how to elaborate on my previous thanks for the the thought and detail that you put into your last two posts, along with your continued willingness to share information - but I will attempt it. It is appreciated such that I feel like young Kwai Chang Caine when learning from the Shaolin Masters Kan and Po! I hope to prove myself worthy.

Chips
 
No Kidding

S. Yama when are you going to put out a book? I swear it would be the "Blackjack Players Bible", but really you know EVERY GAME. I better re-name it to the "Complete Tournament Players Bible"!

Just the posts you give us for free (if all put together) would be one of the best book out there.
 
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It depends

Sorry for once again late response.
Actually, I was planning on writing bj tournament book for a long, long time. I intended it as act that would close a specific chapter in my life, but with recent prophets that the year of blackjack tournament is coming, maybe I shouldn’t close it yet.
Also, the reality kicks in. I am very unorganized. I would have to write it in my native Japanese language, which would be translated into German, I know one guy who could then translate it into Dutch, but I am looking for a Hollander who’s fluent in English.
On more philosophical note, life is to me a series of wonderful distraction (and yes, sometimes I do get gooey food thrown directly into my face) so I tend to drift in my passions but it seems that I’ve been around bj long enough to undertake the project. However, the latest wave of cosmic activities brought me a step closer to my first (or whatever) love, which hopefully will keep me preoccupied for a while. To top it off, I also got involved in couple other affairs.
Nevertheless, I do intend to write the tournament book sometime in 07’. As to the title, I sin too much (at least I used to) so it would be a blasphemy to use anything referring to Bible. I plan to title it “Art of Tournaments -Magic of Blackjack”. You see, letter “A” would get me in front of other valuable tournament books. (And you prospective writers don’t you think of titling your book something like “Aardvark guide to tournaments...”)
Patience, my blue friend.

Q-G J. S. Yama

PS
Regretfully, I have to confess that with the recent trend of posters claiming mottoes, the best ones are taken. I am left with one that I used (or wanted to use) in all analyses I wrote: “It depends”
It is not as flashy, humorous, or well-meaning as others’ are but then, on the other hand, it depends...
 
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