Tough Decision

Here is a situation that came up yesterday. Cadillac Tim and I were, unfortunately at the same table. 2 advance, min bet 25, max bet 500, precise betting allowed (smallest chip is 2.5). BJ pays 3/2, DOA, DAS, no surrender.

I'll develop the situation slowly. It's the second last hand. Here are the bankrolls and the betting order.

BR1: ~2300 - bet 25
Tim: 1025
BR4: 600
Gronbog: 775

What should Tim's bet be? Give your reasons and observations. I don't have any precise answers in mind. I just want to see where the discussion goes.

 

BR1 has a lock on first place barring a blackjack by Tim. Tim has two people betting after him, so he should bet 527.50. Then BR4 will probably bet all 600. Then Gronbog should bet 275 and take the second low.

 

As it's the second last hand, BR1 does not quite have a lock, but I agree that it is probably best for Tim to forget about BR1 and try to stay ahead of the other two.

I think I'd go for a bet of 252.50. That takes the high against max (500) bet wins be either Gronbog or BR4, and has the high against BR4 even with an all-in double down of 600. It also takes the low against both of them (even with a 25 min bet from Gronbog). It would not cover a push by Gronbog, but it is more important to cover the high than the push.

The good thing about this situation, from Tim's point of view, is that if BR4 and Gronbog feel compelled to bet big, there is a chance they could both be locked out after this hand. And if they win their bets, it requires either a swing, or a double-down win from Gronbog to overtake Tim, going into the final hand.

 

I (for Tim) would bet 275 for the reasons listed by London Colin.

 

The range 252.50 to 272.50 meets all of the high/low criteria I mentioned. 275 seems to me to be one chip too many, as it may lead to a tie with Gronbog (if he bets and loses the min 25).

I tentatively reasoned it would be best to bet the low end of the range so that, in the everybody-loses scenario, there would be the maximum chance of achieving a lock on the final hand.

 

Very interesting case. I think that, as London explained, bets in the range of 252.5 to 272.50 will perform very well and may be the best. However, there are many other interesting bets both lower and higher that should not be considered as bad ones. Tim could go either lower (like range of 202.50 to 227.50) or higher bet like 367.50 forcing gron to think which road to take.

My wildish guess it that the differences in effectiveness will be less than 5%. Generally, with the chances for Tim just under 50%, ~15% for BR4 and ~35% for gron.


S. Yama

 

Good responses - as expected. They represent the wide range of options Tim had available to him. My own observation was that Tim was exactly a 1/2 max bet in front of me and, like Colin, I thought that he might take the high and the low on the table with a bet of >= 252.5.

As interesting a choice as that was, it was not the "Tough Choice" that inspired the title of this thread. Here's what happened next:

Tim bet 300 and BR4 bet 200 leaving the situation as:
BR1: ~2300 - bet 25
Tim: 1025 - bet 300
BR4: 600 - bet 200
Gronbog: 775 - bet ?

What would you bet if you were me? Once again, there's nothing that I'm specifically looking for here. I'm just interested in everyone's thoughts.

 

I think my decision at the table would be to take the low road with a bet of < 50. But I'm not at all sure whether that is really the best option.

 

I would also take the low just because it is not the final hand and on the final hand Gron bets last compared to his Tim and BR4. So, I would consider beating Tim (if we both lose) this hand and postpone beating BR4 till the final hand if needed. I would bet $25 (i.e.. less than 50 as Colin suggested)

 

I bet enough to....
- be in the lead if Gronbog bet $500 max and we both won.
- be in the lead by more than a max bet, if Gronbog bet $25 min and we both won. ($275 isn't enough to accomplish this)
- get a lock if I won a double and Gronbog bets $25 (win or lose the hand). (Again, $275 doubled isn't enough to lock his $25 win)
NOTE: The negative to my bet was that I would be slightly behind Gronbog, if I had lost & he bet min. It was also an advantage situation. I felt all of the above scenarios were worth the move I made.

 

Thanks Tim. Your own thought process is probably the most important one in this discussion!

 

OK, So, admittedly, there's not much to discuss with respect to my bet. I have the choice of taking the low on Tim and BR4 or betting bigger so as not to fall too far behind, should Tim win his hand. I ended up betting 25 to take the low. Later I realized that I could have bet between 27.5 and 47.5 in order to also get the high on BR4.

Here's where the "Tough Decision" came for Tim. The cards came as follows:
BR1: ~2300 - bet 25 - hand: I don't remember (I was focused on Tim and BR4)
Tim: 1025 - bet 300 - hand 10
BR4: 600 - bet 200 - hand 17
Gronbog: 775 - bet 25 - hand 14
Dealer 4 (I think --- it was definitely a 4 or a 5)

Let's leave BR1 out of it, since I don't remember his hand anyway. Tim is next to play. What would you do in his shoes?

 

I'd go for the double. Losing it would hurt, but perhaps not quite as much as it first appears -

• Barring a 17-push from BR4, Tim would still be ahead of BR4.
• A swing might be required against Gronbog even if just a single bet of 300 were lost (depending on whether Gronbog were to bet big or small on the final hand[*]). Losing 600 leaves a final goal of 850 within range; still enough for the swing.

[*] Thinking about this some more, Gronbog betting small is probably a much more likely scenario (since if BR4 has only 400 left, Gronbog could take the high and low against BR4 with a small bet, making it equivalent to a two-player contest between Gronbog and Tim). But still, I think I favour doubling.

Winning the double would give a virtual lock. (Losing 25 on the last hand would leave 1600, which Gronbog could reach by doubling up, making it a tie. Maybe 302.5 would have been a better bet that 300.)

And finally (and probably least importantly), this is one of those rare occasions where a tournament move coincides with the basic-strategy move, meaning it has a good chance of success.

 

I would just hit. Among all the players in contention, Tim has the best hand and the biggest bankroll, why risk it? If everyone loses, Tim will be only 25 behind Gron and would still ahead of BR4.

 

I thought your $25 bet made sense, putting pressure on me to win the hand. Wow, that's a good point on betting $27.50 to take the high on BR4. Hindsight is 20/20 for all of us, but you can retain all of those scenarios for future use. Dealer card was a 4.

 

I agree with the $302.50 bet, again hindsight really makes things clear. It is very difficult to think of the many scenarios when placing these last bets. Always room to explore new ideas, that's why I love this game.

 

I think that the key decision for Tim is whether to go for the virtual lock by doubling or to go for the high by playing his hand to not lose.

 

I'll leave it to Tim to post what he did and why.

 

Without calculating Tim just going for the high, I don't like this with 2 people playing behind me on the last hand. I would double (about 60% chance of winning) for 300, and try to get the virtual or actual lock on the last hand. I still have a chance even if I lose the double.

However, when I double, I will put BR4 and Gronbog in a quandary. They can really not stand me winning the bet based on what they have bet. If I get a good card say 9-A, they are almost forced to double their hands. If Tim just plays for the high they will probably leave their bets alone.

 

As Gronbog said, it was a tough decision (or so I thought initially) and I definitely agonized on it a bit. Considering the situation (Dealer having a 4), the odds were good that both Gronbog and BR4 would win the hand. That would result in them being tied @ $800. After analyzing the situation, I realized that if I lost the hand (hitting or doubling) I would be in a must win (others must lose) either way on the last hand If I lost the straight bet, I would be @ $725. If I lost the double, I would be at $425. If everyone lost, BR4 would be at $400 & Gronbog would be at $750. Once I realized that I had enough left to pass either player with my win and their loss on the last hand (if I lost after hitting -or- doubling), I went for the double. (I thought at the time that it was a lock opportunity, but it was only a guarantee of a push if Gronbog and/or BR 4 won both of the last two hands). As was mentioned in an earlier post, a $302.50 bet would have been the best bet. Either way, there was so much power in winning the double, it ended up being a no brainer (but, only after going through all of the scenarios).

As it played out, I caught a 10 on my double and that proved to very good fortune as the dealer drew to 19! That made me the only winning hand (I'm not sure of BR1 either, but it was irrelevant), which did secure the lock.

After hand 20 we had the following totals:

Cadillac: $1,625
Gronbog: $750
BR4: $400