Well, the show finally aired. What are your thoughts? I thought it was fairly well put together. I think it presented the event in a pretty good light, and highlighted some of the drama involved. Despite being only a few feet away when it happened, I never got a chance to see Kenny Einiger's heartbreaking finish in the true perspective until now. Immediately after the event, before doing the math on the bankroll totals from my notes, I erroneously believed that his double on the last hand was a moot point. While I corrected that thinking soon after the event, seeing it tonight really drove home his frustrating finish. He doubling to a total of 18 only to have the dealer's five upcard turn into a 19, sweeping his million dollar chances away. Ack! Well, I think good things will come of this coverage. If you missed the show, it airs again in 30 minutes, and then again on Saturday.
split or double Well, I'd like to share my tought about dramatic final hand decision for Ken Einiger. It's easy to calculate that probability to win two bets by doubling on hard 8 vs dealer's 5 upcard is over 47% (Dealer busts -42%, plus dealer makes 17 when he makes 18 or 19, plus dealer makes 18 when he makes 19). By splitting hand Ken needs first of all not to bust (5 up), e.i. stand starting hard 12. So he'll take all dealer's bust cases (about 42%) plus those when he beats the dealer on both hands by points which is way less than 5%. It is easy to proof by calculating this probability assuming that he plays by dealer's strategy (hit 'til 17 instead of stand starting hard 12) which is about 5%. So total probability for split is way less than probability for double. In other words thanks to his incorrect bet Ken was forced to play the right way.
Yes, doubling was definitely a better play than splitting there. I was surprised during the broadcast to see the whole issue where Einiger wanted to split. Despite being right there at the table, I was too busy recording cards and bankrolls to even pay attention to the conversation between Einiger and the dealer. I never pay much attention to what would have happened with other plays, but two face cards fell after Einiger's decision. Had he been able to split, he would have had two 14s against a dealer 9 (5 up, 4 in the hole), and we don't know what the next card(s) out of the shoe would have been. Nonetheless, doubling was a much better shot than splitting. The full detail of the last 5 hands is now available in the new Play by Play section.
Better Lucky than Good A great example of how standard deviation (i.e. luck) can overwhelm expectation (sound strategy). Rhoades completely misbets both of the final 2 hands, and gets paid $1,000,000 for his incompetence. I cracked up when the so-called "pro" (Rodman) made a basic strategy mistake (stood on 12 v 2) and got trainwrecked because of it. Of course, it's possible that this play was mathematically correct, but we'll never know.
