UBT Tourney Size vs. Chances?

S

sabrejack

New Member
I played in the first freeroll at 7 p.m. EDT last night online at UBT for the newly announced Dec. L.A. TV tourney . I finished first out of 406, which was nice (especially since now I won't have to play a million more tourneys this week just to get a seat for next Saturday...)

But the reason I bring up these numbers is not to brag (OK, maybe a little) but rather because of something I found unusual. This was a typical-for-its-total player-#, five-round game, with a progression that went:

R1--2 advance
R2--3 advance
R3--2 advance
R4--1 advances
Final Table: All 6 seated receive Oct. 14 online tourney invites for one L.A. trip winner (final table is played for braggin' rights only, in effect).

Note that in my case last night, however, one had to win the R4 table outright in order to advance. That is the first time I've encountered that. I just checked out a 291 entry group (2 p.m. EDT game) and see that it was five rounds as well, but at least one table I observed in R4 was the more typical "3 advance." As we all know, being top 3 of 7 is a whole lot easier than fighting one's way to be 1 of 7 (or 6)!

So, it has me thinking--amongst those of us who spend time, thought and a ridiculous amount of energy on this confounded game: Is there a table advance formula that knowledgeable players could use to any advantage here?

For example:
  • Entry range is 200-250 players means that 2 or 3 advance in R4=ENTER
  • 400-450 range guarantees a brutal winner-take-all R4=DON'T BOTHER
    etc.

In other words, it would behoove the smart player to look for games where the entry size was in a range that guarantees a better chance of advancing.

I'm guessing that Reachy or LC probably already have some algorithm-driven, supercomputer-generated analysis of this situation, which they could share. If not, maybe someone has some knowledge on the UBT site tourney methodology or other thoughts that could help improve the "Freeroll Tourneys Entered vs. Success" %.

Thoughts anyone?

Best--Sabrejack

P.S. On an unrelated but hot-of-late topic, I'm fine reading about politics on this site if the politicians in question are making decisions that affect anything related to tournament blackjack in any format, which they most certainly are at the moment. Wail away--and let freedom (of speech) ring!
 
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Not yet...

Effectively the tourneys are 1 round shorter than stated and the semi-final table is in fact the final table. There are in effect 6 final tables because the payout for the final table is the same for everybody regardless of final table position. Play on the final table is for bragging rights only!

Cheers

Reachy
 
UBT: Entry qty effect on chances

Reachy--You're not getting the point of my orig. post (although I mislabeled R4 as R5 originally--it is corrected now). We all know that the FT is for show, etc., but my point is that R4 is inconsistent in terms of the number of advancers, and in fact seems to be based on the number of entrants...

Obviously, it is also impacted by the exact number of entrants (an even or odd number, divisible by two, etc.) but if one can avoid entering when R4 is only one player advances, one will waste less time.
 
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Sabrejack, I suggest that you keep track of the number of advancers on a spreadsheet to get a general idea of how they do it.

I believe that if there are 12 (3 advances) or 18 (2 advances) tables in the quarter-final round, there will be exactly 36 players left in the semi-final round. That means 6 tables of 6 players with 1 advancing from each table.

3-round tournament format
73(12) 36(6) 6(1)
76(12) 36(6) 6(1)
79(12) 36(6) 6(1)

4-round tournament format
387(56) 112(18) 36(6) 6(1)
407(59) 118(18) 36(6) 6(1)
 
I had to play the same format as Saber....I cant remember which round exactly 3 or 4 where only one person advanced...:-( It is a dog fight and if you can skip that game Id do the math then...you waste alot of time (or get a lot of practice) playing thru the rounds and then hit one advance....

I was lucky and got thru it early....I got 20 TEC points for sale on F-bay..lol

Anybody???
 
Keep those TECs

Thanks for comments--looking at these numbers would be the way, yes. Hey, I figure these freerolls may be the only game in town pretty soon, so I'd keep those TECs for future trip/entry deals that are talked about.

BTW, does anyone know if new law would affect trips and other non-cash items of value (such as tourney entries)?
 
sabrejack said:
I played in the first freeroll at 7 p.m. EDT last night online at UBT for the newly announced Dec. L.A. TV tourney . I finished first out of 406, which was nice (especially since now I won't have to play a million more tourneys this week just to get a seat for next Saturday...)
Click to expand...

Here's a deal U can't beat.

Wednesday night 9:00 pm EST

7 players only

100.00 down

Winner walks with 490.00 - there's your airfare for LA!

Test you skills and talents with other BJT.com members - not floppy ploppies.

Come on what R U waiting 4? :D

I'm waiting!
 
Wait--First an EV calc...

I might do that fgk (although I assume this will happen again soon as well...)

However, I'm not actually too worried about the airfare to L.A. It's the seat at the FT there that I want and I can't win that playing with this group.

I might hone my skills though--playing against the likes of Ken, etc. and that's a good thing--but wait, in a highly technical EV calculation, I come up with:

28% of ending in the money (2/7)
X
Difficulty-in-winning-against-some-top-dudes-quotient
X
Loss-from-not-playing-against-less-talented-10 p.m.-$20-game-players

= NEGATIVE EV !
 
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