Week One, World Series of Blackjack 2

Discussion in 'World Series of Blackjack' started by KenSmith, Jan 20, 2005.

  1. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    Players: Katya Underhill, Joe Pane, Hollywood Dave Stann, Kevin Blackwood and Rene Angelil

    The premiere of the second season of World Series of Blackjack is tomorrow night (Friday, Jan 21st) at 10 PM Eastern on GSN, repeating at 1 AM Eastern, as well as Saturday, Sunday and Tuesday at various times.
    For the full schedule, see World Series of Blackjack Schedule.

    This episode features one of the best tournament rounds I've ever seen. The level of play is exceptional, and the interaction between the players will make this a great show.

    Three out of five of the players post frequently here at BJT. Now we just need to invite Katya and Rene along for the fun!

    One thing to consider while watching... The chip stacks in front of the competitors are enormous. Because of the low denominations of the Golden Nugget tournament chips, each player has several tall stacks of chips making chip-counting difficult. This was a very tough environment for accurate bet-sizing. When you see some of the precision bets being made at the table Friday night, you'll be impressed.

    Post your thoughts in this thread, and I'll post a full review early next week.
  2. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    Tunica viewing party w/ no sound

    Well, we did succeed in getting GSN on a TV at the Replays sports bar in Tunica, but we had to watch with no sound because of a band playing in the bar. It was still a fun time, even though we missed out on all the banter at the table. I can't wait to watch it with sound when I get home!
  3. Great first episode...

    Coming from someone who did not know the outcome beforehand, I'd have to say I was glued to the TV from start to finish, and it WAS a great finish. It made for great TV, congrats to all, though I was rooting for my fellow Brooklynite.
  4. KevinBlackwood

    KevinBlackwood New Member

    Great production

    I thought GSN did a tremendous job with the show. It certainly had a dramatic finish and should resonate well with TV viewers. An example of the quality of the production was how good they made Joe Pane look on TV. It's amazing what they can do these days with computer enhancements and makeup.
  5. Scorcho

    Scorcho New Member

    Awesome

    a great show all around, compelling right up to the last hand, congrats to Kevin and Hollywood for their respective advancements, though it was too bad, Katya had some horrible luck, I can't wait until next week.
  6. vickic

    vickic New Member

    It was great, I loved it. I've watched it twice already.
  7. It was a thoroughly enjoyable program. I am glad I have it on tape. I am now looking forward to the next episode and hope they get outstanding ratings for this venture.
  8. gflan

    gflan New Member

    Now I see why the banter continues

    I figured it must have been a doozy from the give-and-take of the last few months. It sure was....JoeP and Hollywood, I sure hope you are sitting at the same table Round 1 of the Hilton final...let the sparring begin or should I say -CONTINUE. Seriously, that show will be hard to top for entertainment value alone. I was sorry to see JoeP eliminated...no offense Kevin.
  9. ptaylorcpa

    ptaylorcpa Member

    I really enjoyed watching the show too, in particular watching Joe giving Dave an earful when he was trying to concentrate on making his last hand play was funny. Dave gave it all night to the others, but he seemed to be put out when Joe dished it back on that last hand. That alone was worth the watch! I'm glad I taped it, now have to go back and study how the bets were figured on those last few hands.
  10. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    Sorry about the recap delay

    I'll try to get going tonight on a ReplayTV-powered recap of the episode.
    Man, what a show, eh?
  11. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    Show Recap part 1

    Well, here's my first effort at a show recap. I think it may be a little too detailed. Perhaps I'll summarize more next time. Feel free to critique and correct as needed. With all the details, there are probably errors to be found.

    World Series of Blackjack 2, Episode 1


    Starting out, we're introduced to tonight's five players.

    Joe Pane, a former New York policeman turned professional gambler. "If I'm gonna talk, I'm gonna talk and if that distracts my opponents, all's fair in love and war." (BJT Username joep)

    "Hollywood" Dave Stann was one card away from being last year's champ. He's the Bad Boy of Blackjack, known for talking smack at the table. Part of his strategy: "Controlled recklessness." (BJT Username Hollywood)

    Katya Underhill from Little Rock, AR has been a pro for 5 years. "I think the real key is who can keep their cool in the last ten hands."

    Kevin Blackwood fom Eugene, OR, winner of more than $1 million lifetime, and one of the best card counters in the world. "I rarely get intimidated at the blackjack table." (BJT Username KevinBlackwood)

    Rene Angelil has competed in over 100 blackjack tournaments, but is best known as the husband and manager of Celine Dion. Rene's take: "In this particular tournament, they're all great players. Luck is going to be maybe, instead of 50%, 70%."


    Megan Riordan, our gorgeous redheaded hostess brings us up to speed on the rules: Each player is staked with $100,000 for the 25-hand round. Betting limits are $1000 to $50,000. Late surrender is allowed in the six-deck game, and the dealer stands on all 17s. She sends it back up to the commentators, Max Rubin and Matt Vasgersian.

    The players are seated: Katya, Joe, Dave, Kevin, Rene. If everyone stays in all round, the final betting button will be on Rene.

    Hand 1: All the players start with minimum bets except the already trash-talking Dave, who bets $6000. His 19 vs a dealer 5 looks promising for an early lead, until dealer Deanna draws a 4-card 21.

    Hand 2: Dave cranks up to $12,000 in his negative progression and gets even more money on the table when he doubles a hard 12 vs Deanna's 3 for another $2000. The risky move pays off when his 20 beats a dealer 18, and Dave takes the lead.

    Hand 3: Non-stop Dave: "You guys get lucky. I'll get skillful.", while betting $3000. Everyone else bets the minimum while Max explains the Martingale. As the hand progresses, we hear Dave's strategy of giving advice to his opponents, but not necessarily the best advice. Deanna wipes out the whole table.

    Hand 4: $1000 all around, except for Dave's progression $6000. Deanna's 17 pushes Dave and Kevin while everyone else loses the hand.

    Skip to Hand 6: Dave is up to a $12,000 bet and draws an 11 against Deanna's Jack. Before doubling for less with $6000, Dave gets the audience in the game, splitting the studio into the "Hey" half and the "Ho" half. Deanna, apparently unimpressed, draws another 21 to clean the slate. Dave has now dropped to $81K and given up the lead, but the field is still close. Rene leads with $97K, followed by Kevin with $94K.

    Hand 7: Joe bets $1000 from his $93K, Dave continues his progression with a big $26K risk, and Kevin comes off the minimum bets with a $6000 wager. Rene and Katya stick with the minimum bets while we learn that Katya's Tootsie-esque disguise is just par for the course for her efforts to conceal her identity from the casinos. Dave looks to be in trouble hitting 14 with a 3 to make 17 against Deanna's 9 up, but a dealer bust bails him out and he's right back in the lead with $107K.

    While we're away from the table during hand 8, Kevin describes how casinos fear card counters, Dave relates how the rules have changed to make advantage play more difficult and Joe describes the usual cat-and-mouse existence of advantage players.

    Hand 9: Katya takes the plunge with a $20,000 wager. While Deanna deals, Max and Matt continue the talk about card counting, with Matt pointing out that it's not illegal, but casinos retain the right to exclude anyone for any reason, a right they exercise regularly where card counters are concerned. Joe makes a crack about Hollywood's colorful hair, giving Max a good lead-in to point out that the bald Rene is the "only guy at the table not having a bad hair day." Deanna's 17 pays everyone but Katya, whose first substantial bet lands in the tray. Dave leads with $122,000 followed by Kevin's $118,000. Katya is in last place with $72,000.

    Skip to Hand 11: Small bets around the table. Joe asks Deanna for a hand where he wins and she doesn't also pay everyone else. He doesn't quite get his wish when Rene wins as well. Dave's audience antics continue: "Can I get a Hey? Can I get a Ho? Can I double for Mo?" The double loses, but Dave still leads.

    Hand 12: After Dave and Kevin bet $15K and $10K respectively, Rene tells Deanna he's "rooting for you", a sentiment shared by Katya and Joe with their minimum bets. Dave continues with his unusual double-for-less strategy, this time with 11v9, and collects when Deanna busts. Despite winning $10,000, Kevin says there's "No justice in this world" since annoying Dave collects $21,000 on the hand.

    The scores:
    Katya: $69,000
    Joe: $97,000
    Dave: $128,000
    Kevin: $118,000
    Rene: $80,000

    Hand 13: With the lucky-13 button now in front of Dave, he takes this opportunity to swap out the hand button with the lammer from Celebrity Blackjack, the show where he's the dealer. The "show-dropping" Dave bets $6000 of his $128,000. Kevin bets $10,000. Rene tries to change his luck by circling his chair, and then bets a big $22,000. Katya coasts along with $1000.

    Notable on this hand is the fact that the button has just passed Joe Pane, giving him the one chance he has every five hands to bet and act after Dave. Hollywood's usual banter is cranked up a notch while Joe considers his bet. When Dave starts his "math smoke screen" as described by Matt, Joe wishes there were a button to just turn him off. By now, I'm sure he'd have help in flipping the switch by the other players at the table. Kevin mixes in a little Survivor strategy, asking if they can vote Dave off the table. After that exchange, Joe settles on a big bet of $40,000. He'll take the lead with a win, even if Dave wins his $6000 bet. Still, an extra $4000 would have covered a possible double by either Dave or Kevin. Perhaps Dave's non-stop babbling had an effect after all.

    Rene gets even more money working, doubling his eleven into Deanna's face card. Joe has to take one step backward, by wisely surrendering his 14 against a dealer ten. Deanna's pat twenty takes a $44,000 chunk out of Rene's rapidly dwindling chip stack. Max: "So much for the Canadian chair walk."

    Hand 14: Kevin sticks with his third straight $10K bet, but Rene knows he needs some help in a hurry. He pushes out his remaining $45,000. Rene's off-table commentary reveals "I always finish with zero, or I'm in there at the end." It's a powerful strategy, and good advice. Katya and Joe lay low, and Dave continues his progression with $12K. Rene's bet looks good when Deanna shows a six, but he ends up with a stiff. Deanna claims the first casualty of WSOB2 with a 6-7-A-7 flavor of 21. Rene's "Go big or go home" sends him packing. Kevin doubled 11 and pushed with 21.

    Rene's exit moves the ever-important final button position. If all 4 players remain, the final button will be on Dave, giving Joe last bet. While his $76,000 bankroll is hurting, at least he'll have position on his side. Meanwhile, Katya is still in last place with $68,000.

    Skip to Hand 17:

    Scores:
    Katya: $46,000
    Joe: $74,000
    Dave: $119,750
    Kevin: $97,000

    Dave hopes to stretch his already large lead, with a $12,500 bet from the button. Kevin follows with a $1000 bet, provoking Dave's comment that he's "got them all trained". By making a large enough bet from the lead to make an attack on him expensive, he hopes to set the pace on this hand, and prevent any serious damage to his lead. Kevin is willing to let him have this hand, and bets $1000. However, Katya knows she needs to make a move eventually and now is as reasonable a time as any.
    She goes all in. Joe is again in the last betting and playing position, and decides to take a substantial risk as a result. He bets $26,000. I'm not sure how he arrived at the amount but if he wins it, he's at an even $100K. It does cheaply cover a double-down win by Kevin, so perhaps that's the reasoning. However, he's still going to be short of Dave, even if he's able to double the bet.

    The cards come out ugly, against a King up. Dave hits his 13 to 18. Blackwood makes a basic strategy surrender of his 16. Katya hits her all-in 12 and busts, becoming the table's second casualty. Max notes that she's had really bad luck, winning only 3 hands in the entire round. Dave quickly ascertains that he's off the final-hand button, and immediately starts ragging Joe about it: "The only way you're not on the button on the end is if YOU bust out before then." Deanna adds to Joe's trouble by first hitting his soft 17 with a 9, and then taking his $26,000 bet with a pat 20. Joe's situation has gotten drastically worse in one hand. He lost position and more than a third of his chips this hand.

    Katya's post-table interview doesn't reveal anything we don't know. She just lost every major bet she placed. Not much could be done there.

    ---continued in the next post---
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2005
  12. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    Show Recap part 2

    Hand 18:
    Joe: $48,000
    Dave: $107,250
    Kevin: $96,500

    Joe laments his situation: "I'm on the button (at the end) with the least amount of chips". Kevin reminds him that "People have come back from the dead before." Joe says he going to need "lightning in a bottle" to pull that off. Kevin leads off with a $1500 bet, and Joe makes a curious bet of $19,000. Dave bets $6000, while Kevin gets into the trash talk, pointing out that he's "tough down the stretch" and Dave is going to need a really big lead to be safe.

    Joe finally gets his wish from earlier, getting paid while the other two lose to a dealer 17. He needed the ammo badly.

    Skip to Hand 21:
    During the break, Dave and Kevin have drifted down a little.

    Joe: $67,000
    Dave: $87,250
    Kevin: $80,000

    Kevin gets in a plug for his upcoming book "Play Blackjack Like the Pros", and bets a conservative minimum bet from the button. Joe bets half his remaining chips ($33,500), which is enough to take the lead, depending on what Dave bets. Dave takes off his jacket to reveal black leggings with red skulls on both of his arms, and we know its getting serious now. Dave says that Joe left him "one bet", which turns out to be $7500, taking first low over Kevin. (I like a bet of $7000 better, to cover a possible push by Kevin. If it weren't for the possible Dave double to pass Joe's win and the security offered by surrender, $5000 would be even better.)

    A dealer Ace up adds some extra stress to the table. Dave takes $750 of insurance which doesn't appear to accomplish much, and Max tells us exactly that. No dealer blackjack. Kevin stands with 20, and Joe is looking at an ugly 15. He asks for a small card, and gets the smallest, an Ace for 16. His next card is much better though, a four for a total of twenty. Once we get to Dave, he's now discovered that the insurance was a bad idea, because now he's tied for the low with Blackwood. He considers surrendering his 10, but decides to hit instead and draws an Ace for 21. Deanna pays the table.

    Hand 22:
    Joe $100,500
    Dave $94,000
    Kevin $81,000

    On the button, Joe bet his lead over Kevin, or $19,000. This is one of the few hands this round where I think the bets aren't particularly good. Joe's bet is fine, but Dave should take the high in my opinion. Instead, he falls $1000 short of that, betting $25,000. There's a reason for that amount. He can surrender back into a low over a push by Kevin. However, even then, any win by Kevin negates the value of that ploy. Blackwood makes a minimum bet here, in a spot where I think he should have gone for the lead as well.

    Once the cards are dealt, Deanna's 9 looks like a favorite over the 16/14/15 of the players. Joe surrenders, and so does Dave. Kevin sees an opportunity opened up by Dave's surrender, and knows he needs to win this hand. He hits and makes a four card 20, and is rewarded by a dealer pat 17.

    Hand 23:
    Joe $91,000
    Dave $81,500
    Kevin $82,000

    Dave is on the button and bet $12,500. Max says Kevin should have matched up with him, but instead bet $2000. I agree with Max. Joe makes a good bet of $8500 here, which is very flexible. It's high and low correlated with both Dave and Kevin, and he can surrender if needed to stay ahead of a Blackwood win.

    Deanna continues dealing stiffs, this time 15/14/16 starting with Dave. Dave surrenders against the dealer ten-card, drawing criticism from Max. Kevin hits once and stands with 17. Joe gets to exercise the power of his precise bet, surrendering to guarantee he stays in the lead, even if Deanna busts. She doesn't, pushing Kevin's 17 instead.

    Hand 24:
    Joe $86,750
    Dave $75,250
    Kevin $82,000

    On the button, Kevin bets $6000. Joe follows with $10,500, which is enough to take the high, but keep the low over Dave who bets $25,000 to try for the lead. The litany of bad cards continues, with Deanna turning up a deuce, but dealing the players 13/14/5 starting with Kevin. Blackwood stands with his 13. (Doubling has little value, but Blackwood could have hit out to make a hand hoping for a swing.) Joe's decision is easy after that. He stands with 14, and he is guaranteed to retain his lead over Kevin. Dave hits to 18, and takes the lead when the dealer busts.

    Hand 25:
    Joe $97,250
    Dave $100,250
    Kevin $88,000

    Joe's bet from the button is $46,500. That bet does several things. It gives Hollywood a chance to bet too much and give away the low if he makes a max bet. It also allows Joe to get most of his money working with a split or double. Good alternative bets were either $9000 or $11,000. I like Joe's bet here though.

    Dave bets $24,000 rather than choosing to match Joe's bet. Although I think bet-matching would have been a better choice, Hollywood's bet is very precisely chosen, and it does a lot for him. He can still double down to cover a single-bet win by Joe. Or, he can surrender and retain a low over a Kevin push by $250.

    Kevin follows up by taking first low with a $2000 bet. He could have afforded some extra money here. He can bet up to $11,500 and still have first low. That allows him to beat a push by Joe if he wins the bet. Betting slightly more than that would cover a push by Dave as well, but at the risk of losing the low if the dealer has a blackjack and he can't surrender.

    Joe is dealt a pair of 3s, Hollywood gets a hard 13, and Kevin a soft 19, against Deanna's 3 up. Joe contemplates for a while, and decides to split the 3s. It's not that tough a choice. If he makes a great single hand, Dave will double. Besides, even if he needed to win only a single bet, I think splitting the threes is better than playing them out.

    On his first hand, he makes a three-card stiff. On his second hand he draws a seven for a total of 10. Despite Joe's claim that it "doesn't really matter", he pushes out a $4000 double down on the second hand. Max correctly identifies the situation where it could matter quite a bit. If Joe has a split outcome, losing the first hand and winning the second, he will still beat a push by Dave. Nice double for less!

    With Joe's double card conveniently concealed, the pressure is really on for Dave now. And finally, the tables are turned on the Bad Boy of Blackjack, with Joe and Kevin dishing out some Dave-style punishment. Dave struggles with his choice over his 13. Kevin's nineteen looks pretty strong against a dealer 3, so he hates to surrender even though that's the main reason he made the bet he made. He finally decides to hit it and draws a 2 for 15. Joe turns up the heat badgering him some more, until Dave decides to stand with 15. Max correctly points out that Dave has now locked himself out of first place. He has to hope that Joe doesn't get paid, or he can't even finish second.

    Just in case it's not clear: If the dealer busts, Joe wins. If the dealer makes a hand, Dave is guaranteed to finish behind at least Kevin, or maybe both of them, depending on Joe's double-down card.

    Kevin stands on his 19, and Deanna finishes the hand. She has a ten underneath the three but hits it with the deadly 8 for 21. What a win for Kevin Blackwood, and what a crushing defeat for Joe Pane. Hollywood Dave advances to the wild-card round, Kevin is headed to the semifinals, but Joe's World Series is over.

    What a great show, and what a great tournament round!
  13. casino_jim

    casino_jim Member

    That was terrific

    I don't get GSN here, and your recap was a great read. It wasn't too detailed for me! Thanks.
  14. KenSmith

    KenSmith Administrator Staff Member

    Joe's split of the threes

    I've had a few people ask about Joe's split of the threes, whether that was a good thing or bad.

    I like it. He takes away the threat of a double by Dave. I think if Joe doesn't split, Dave's best play is to double regardless of Joe's total.

    There's also this really neat side-effect of the split since Joe is able to double for that measly $4000. That move actually inspired my next article for BJInsider, and will likely change the way I play sometimes.

    Any thoughts? Joe? Anyone else care to weigh in?
  15. Joep

    Joep Banned User

    Splitting the 3-3

    Before i go into my thoughts on why i split the 3s,the bet that i made had a specific purpose and i was surprised that no one at GSN could figure it out.It was a bet that was made to try and confuse my opponets into making the wrong bet on the last hand.Betting first on the last hand as BR 2 is not a good position to be in but i thought that the 46,500 bet would be confusing to them.If i knew that Kevin "Gilligan" Blackwood was only going to bet 2,000 i would have locked up 2nd and still have made a bet big enough to beat Hollywood or a least swing him for the win if he matched up with me.But both their bets left me scratching my head.I didn't want to bet short there and watch my hand have no value at all.So once i made the bet of 46,500 i had no low anymore and no chance of surrender to get back one of the lows.Now to why i split my 3s. I take away from Hollywood the chance to double and get the high back from me.The double on the second split gave me the ability to lose the first split and still recover with the second hand double .The double down card was put face down and that really rattled Hollywood as he could not see what i had gotten on my 3-7 double.At this point his options became very slim he needed to either surrender and hope that Kevin "Gilligan" Blackwood loses his hand or not stop on the stiff hand that he did .He now could not win anymore."Gilligan" was just as confused because before the dealer turned over her card he said "please break" to which i responed "that sounds great to me" That was cut from the show but it did happen.We all know what happened next but if we play that hand over 100 times i would win close to 85% of the time.If someone wants to question my splitting the 3s im all ears.So my initial thoughts that they would crack under the pressure of last hand jitters was right on the money i just got very unlucky with the results remember i win if the dealer makes 17-18-19-or bust with a 3 up .I will take that everyday and twice on Sundays.

    p.s.Kenny Smith approached me minutes after the show finished taping and he knew exactly what the 46,500 bet did.

    p.s. Thanks to Catch 27 for the "Gilligan" nickname it's all him
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2005
  16. Hollywood

    Hollywood New Member

    Last Hand

    Splitting the 3s was definately the right play, and betting as much as you did made sense to me. left you enough to split, but close enough to a max bet to accomplish the same thing.

    as far as my play of the last hand -- here's an excerpt from an email conversation i had with Anthony Curtis about it:

    At first i thought I had made a mistake on the play of the final hand... I should've either just surrendered or hit it out to a better hand. But now i'm not so sure; i think i made the correct play.

    Originally, my bet was made as the ultimate flex bet; double it to take the high on joe's single bet win, and a low to kevin (BR3) by surrendering.
    Additionally, giving the appearance of 'overbetting' my lead over kevin could trick him into going too low (like he did), instead of holding back the most # of unbet chips and betting the remainder (making his bet about 11,000). As it turned out, this wouldn't have mattered.

    Once Joe split and doubled, it became obivous that the first possibility of my flex bet -- doubling to take the high on joe -- was no longer possible.
    He simply had more money out there than me. So although at this point the only other part of my plan that made sense was to surrender for the low, i realized that because Kevin had 19 to a dealer 3 & a win by him due to a dealer bust or her hitting to 17/18 would put me in 2nd or 3rd with virtually no shot at 1st. Not good odds surrendering. I swear, if he woulda only had a soft 18, i woulda done it! but the 19 left too few chances for me to advance in first. At this point i was still in "one person advances" mode rather than two advance.

    So now the only remaining option is to beat joe's doubled total & hope the dealer made a hand to bust him. I needed to get to at least a solid 18 or 19 to have the best shot (if not a complete 20 or 21. Hitting to the 15 was horrible; after a lot of calculation i realized that now the biggest factor in me taking another hit (with over half the possibilities remaining bust cards for me) was that because joe's double card was face down, i didn't even know what i was hitting to! which made the concept of taking another hit, at a severe risk of busting and really costing me the tourney, less appetizing considering he would have 12-16 the same % chance of the time as me hitting and busting. Kinda futile. So i stood, selling out to the "two advance" theory & giving myself the best shot of advancing (in 2nd only) rather than hitting again & either busting into 3rd or hitting to a total that still would not beat joe (taking 3rd still).

    -holly d.
  17. KevinBlackwood

    KevinBlackwood New Member

    Gilligan?

    I thought there was no question Joe made the correct decision by splitting. It put Dave into the ultimate squeeze play and was a great tactical move. And Joe Pane's humor at the end made for classic TV and should provide some of the best moments for the WSOBJ2.

    As far as me being rattled down the stretch, that certainly wasn't the case (my cry for the dealer to bust was a weak attempt at reverse psychology). However, my inexperience in tournaments definitely showed compared to a seasoned pro like Joe. In retrospect, I let my bets near the end become too influenced by the count (which was negative). Perhaps I should have correlated Dave on hand 23 and I completely missed the $11,500 bet that Ken astutely pointed out for the last hand (which would have give me more ways to win), but I felt taking the low at the end was the only viable option at that point.

    In regards to the "Gilligan" comparison, I can only hope that GSN doesn't decide to pay me my winnings in coconuts. And I am still a little steamed that "Ginger" and "MaryAnn" sailed off with Dave and Joe, leaving me on the beach with the "Professor."
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2005
  18. joeyl

    joeyl New Member

    Hello Ken.. Interesting report..

    I have always found blackjack boring. I think I have missed a trick somewhere along the line.

    Cheers.
  19. S. Yama

    S. Yama Active Member

    decesions

    Here is some more gasoline…

    Bets:
    Both players Joe and Dave made great bets.
    Joe’s bet is an excellent one. He could have bet only 41,000 increasing range where Dave would overbet and also minimizing bet to have a better chance for ending with more chips by losing/surrendering if his opponents made some weird bets. 41K does the same thing on the upside as 46.5K except some very unusual bets like Kevin betting 25,250 to 27,750 and winning a doubled bet. The difference is very small and there should be extra points for getting most of the benefits and for Joe’s creativity by not falling into stereotyped bets half brl or max bet.
    Dave’s bet of 24K is an excellent one, too. Ken likes matching Joe’s bet closely, but I think (without actual doing the numbers) that both bets would get Dave (before hands were dealt and played) about 40% chance of advancing. And by advancing I mean the first place. However, bet of 24K will give Dave more second places – my wild guess, it would be in high thirties instead of low thirties for the matched bet.

    Joe’s play was excellent and I don’t see how anyone would question it.
    Dave play will be best described by presenting numbers. Here are some quick pen and pencil results (they can be off by a couple percent):

    Play:……………......…………..1ST Place……….2ND Place…………3RD Place
    Surrender…………….....…......….29%…………..20%………….….51%
    Stand Stiff………….....……....……0%………….…33%…….……….67%
    Hit to 18 (start with 13)……...33%……………33%……………….34%
    Hit to 18 (start with 15)….……28%……………33%………….……39%

    S. Yama
  20. Hollywood

    Hollywood New Member

    Thanks, Yama

    Thanks for running some math -- always nice to have some solid analysis. obviously my own conclusions matched yours, but for some reason i had my risk of ruin much higher once i hit to the 15. Did you analyze the % solely on the basis of potential busting, or did you also factor in the odds of Joe/Kevin/dealer still beating me even if i did hit to an 18? curious to hear your computational criteria.

    -holly d.

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