# What is the best bet?

Discussion in 'Blackjack Tournament Strategy' started by darklord, Nov 14, 2005.

Yow. Bitten by conditional probabilities again. You're correct Yama, I overestimated the values by a large margin. I really need to get caught up on my other projects so I can get back to working on sim software.

Thanks for the effort!

2. ### TXtourplayerExecutive Member

Wow!

Nice post S.Yama, not bad for a so-so player...lol.

I have another scenario for you with the same hand.

Lets say BR2 makes an 18 on their DD vs the 3. You have 2/6 what are the percentages to DD vs. surrender?

How about BR2 making 19? 20? 21?

When would the surrender become the better play over DD?

Excellent work by both S.Yama and Ken S. once again.

Surrender never becomes a better play than doubling.

These are rounded, and I used a mix of infinite deck and 6-deck approximations to get them so other calculations might differ by a small amount.

Thanks

Thanks Ken.

5. ### S. YamaActive Member

thanks

Thanks for your kind words guys.

Always a pleasure to do some kind of "gymnastics" - lately it is only mind type, or whatever is left of it.

GL,
S. Yama

6. ### swogElite MemberStaff Member

Best Bet

Most of us would be lost without Ken and you, please don't forget that....

7. ### SpringbacMember

Thanks

This is a most interesting string that really challenges the mind that is overcome with the computer. Thanks for the education.

8. ### JoepActive Member

Surrender is out ?

Ken so with these surrender figures are you saying that the 435 bet losses a little of its luster as that would never come into play.

Not exactly. It can't come into play with the particular cards dealt in this example, but there are definitely situations where it would be appropriate.

For example, If BR2 stands with 19 against a dealer 9, and BR1 has a 16, I see surrendering the 435 as the right play.

Basically, the times you should surrender the 435 are those times when you really wish you had bet 340 instead!

The surrender possibility with 435 is a minor thing, but I still can't decide whether 340 or 435 is better. As we've seen already in this thread, it's tough to put numbers on this decision.

10. ### TXtourplayerExecutive Member

"There is always a better bet"

We can "What if" ourselves to death over what to do in different situations, however as I have pointed out many times the highest percentage play is not always the winning play.

If you don't have luck on your side even the best situation can turn on you on that final hand.

The orignal question asked was about Darklords bet, was it his highest percentage bet? No is wasn't, but the highest percentage bet wouldn't have won this hand either.

I first said \$340 would have been my bet, but after having the time to study I agree with Ken on the \$435 bet as giving you the best chance of winning by covering more options.

However in this case my \$340 bet would have won, not because it was the best bet, but because I got lucky and the dealers pushed BR2 leaving me with the low.

So Ken actually had the better bet, but I would have been luckier.

After the cards are all out Ken's saying really comes into play "There is always a better bet".

One correction Tx. It's not a big deal, but I don't want to confuse an already lengthy thread.

Had Darklord bet the 340, he still would have lost, because he would still have doubled and given back the push to BR2.

12. ### TXtourplayerExecutive Member

You sure Ken?

Yes you are...lol. I added wrong, I was thinking DD wouldn't get him there so no need to DD.

Last edited: Nov 20, 2005
13. ### JoepActive Member

Flip Flop

Tex was busy adding up all his *Stars and he just forgot what post he was respoding to.But leave it up to Rick to flip flop back in forth on all issues.He makes Sen. Kerry look like a steady rock on his opinions :laugh:

14. ### TXtourplayerExecutive Member

No flip/flop

Joep no flip/flop here, I just made a mistake and admited it.

Even S. Yama and Ken admited mistakes on this post.

It happens to all of us, no big deal.

15. ### S. YamaActive Member

If someone is really interested how to find out benefits of \$340 bet (I know Joep is), and whether it is less than 1.0%, I would be happy to start this person on the right track.

First we should take all possible starting hands for BR2 – this is 55 different hands.
Then we should multiply them by ten different dealers up cards – this makes 550 combinations.
Next, we look at BR1’s starting hands, 55 types – we’re talking over thirty thousand combinations.
Fortunately, repeated similar actions, and similar consequences can reduce our interest.
All we need to find out are cases when BR2 would end up with a pat hand, regardless if it was a hit, or a double down, or a 3-bet with both hands having the same pat value,
while the dealer would end up with the same value as BR2’s pat hand(s),
and BR1’s hand was not surrendered or doubled and had a lower value than BR2 and the dealer.

S. Yama

16. ### tirle_bjMember

benefits of \$340

It is also interesting to have an answer for the game w/o surrender (easier case).
Actually if we could show that \$340 benefits over 1% (regardless how much more) then we shall proof that \$340 is a better bet than \$430.
Here are the situations where \$340 can possibly benefit over \$430 (no Surrender game): BR2 pushes vs. BR1 loses

BR2 has 17, dealer has 7, BR1 less than 17
BR2 18, dealer 8, BR1 less than 18
BR2 19, dealer 9, BR1 less than 19
BR2 20, dealer T, BR1 less than 20

Please notice that with SR option available, after BR2 Stands, BR1 should SR (exept for BR2 20, Dealer T, BR1 19 - Stand).

Let's consider first (BR2 20, dealer T, BR1 less than 20).
In this case dealer has to make 20 and BR1 doesn't have to make 20 or 21.
We have ~ 10%*28*85%*37%*85% = .75%
Here is the brake down:
10% - BR2 has 20
28% - Dealer has T up, but not a BJ
85% - BR1 initially doesn't have 20 or BJ
37% - dealer makes 20
85% - BR1 doesn't make 20 or 21 (assuming dealer's algorithm for BR1 which is very close to "how to avoid 19% swing".
The other three give us ~ .1%
Now we have a really close call. We have to consider extras: when BR2 has any hand of 17 or more against dealer's other (than considered) cards vs BR1's worse hand. And assume push vs lose. It is actually more than .15 (proof is available). So finally \$340 is slightly better than \$430.
This last group is mainly the one which should be considered in Sr game as a possible benefit for \$340, and this is less than 1%. So I think there is no need for total (global) sorting out. Looks like in Sr game \$430 is better than \$340.

17. ### S. YamaActive Member

Nice post Tirle,
It cleverly picks just a few cases that have just enough weigh to prove that \$340 with no surrender is minimally better bet.
Hey, once again in such close calls- what’s most important?
--Count, not in traditional way but it determines specifics like number of pushes 20-TT.

S. Yama