o for $$ or glory
lougars you’ve got very good response from Ken. Ay, also true, those things get really complicated. With the time (and experience) we learn to isolate the most important aspects of strategies and pick better option faster and more precise, though not necessary they will be optimal.
Learning some statistics is crucial, and just a few, like dealer’s outcomes, chances of winning doubled bets, chances of different number of players winning/pushing/losing, helps a lot and sure you can expand them more.
Let me elaborate how I would try to approach your final hand betting.
Being BR2 puts you in a bad position to win the table if BR1 bets big. You have to win and your opponent push or lose, or you have to push and he has to lose (then, BR3 and BR4 can’t win their bets). This (since you can not double to pass BR1) gives you roughly only 20% to overcome BR1.
So, the first key question is will BR1 bet big enough (+12,700) to lock you out if you win your all-in.
If he bets less than that you would have much improved chance to take the first place because whenever you win your hand – you win the table. That’s a big difference.
The second subject to consider, since your chances for the first place by “high bet” are small, is what are the chances of succeeding if your opponents (and most likely you, by the laws of correlation) lose their bets. Perhaps surprisingly to some all 3 players lose or push 34% of the time. Since you need BR1 to lose (not push) and BR3 and BR4 push or lose the numbers gets smaller but it is still 29%. Not bad.
Now, you need to figure out how much to bet to have “the low” chances and in addition have benefits of winning your hand while your opponents are less lucky.
BR1-18,500... BR2-15,950.. BR3-11,500.. BR4-11,000.. BR5-7,100.. BR6-7,000
Looking at their bankrolls you have to chose between four bets:
1. ~15,000 go for high.
2. 7,100 covers all-in by all except BR1 (aside from BR3/BR4 bj, which you can be overcome by doubled bet).
3. 4,400 keeping more unbet money than anybody else but BR1.
4. 1,700 keeping more money like above and locking out BR5 and BR6 even if they win all-in not bj. You can cover BR1 push and BR5 and BR6 bj by doubling but can’t win with BR3 and BR4 all-in.
The table below shows guess/estimate chances for all of those bets rounded broadly.
BET...................1ST PLACE........2ND PLACE......3-4TH PLACE.........5-6TH PLACE
15,000..................20%....................30%....................30%.........................20%.......
BR1 bets 12,500+
15,000..................40%....................10%....................30%.........................20%.......
67% chances that BR1 bets less than 12,500
7,100....................30%....................30%....................30%.........................10%.......
50/50 BR1 bets 11,700+
4,400....................35%....................25%....................30%.......................<10%.......
1,700....................30%..................+25%....................40%..........................5%.......
.
You can put specifc prizes for % values and decide wheather to go for $$ or glory.
S. Yama
