A close decision

[London Colin]

Actually, both BR1 and BR2 have the same chance of getting a bj. If BR1 gets a bj it's game over.

A BJ for BR1 is surely no different from any other win, whereas a BJ is BR2's only hope, other than a swing (which I think is reflected in your calculation that arrives at 78%).

To restate Monkeysystem's answer:

Standing on a stiff on LH-1 = 79% probability of winning the table
Surrendering on LH-1 ........= 77% probability of winning the table

The numbers are close enough to show me that either choice would be OK in the heat of battle but of course standing on a stiff is the preferred choice.

But of course you might not get a stiff on LH-1. 79% is the worst your chances could be. (78% in the version refined to account for a BR2 BJ). It might be helpful if I substitute this 78% figure into my formula -

21% + ((100% - 21%) * 78%) = 83%

By surrendering Br1 also gives up a possible push with the dealer.
tgun

That's accounted for in my 21% figure for the chance of winning by a swing (win or push) on LH-1 (assuming I got it right).

 

[toolman1]

I'm basically out of this for discussion purposes. However, I was wondering if London Colin and Monkeysystem can arrive at probabilities they both agree on?