Accumulation advice needed

S

Sun Runner

New Member
Please let me briefly describe the tournamment ..

294 players
$200 starting BR day one. Again, $200 starting BR day two. (Funny money)
$5 min bet; $100 max bet
6D shoe; shuffle up on hand 12/13.
BJ pays 2:1

Day one: 294 players, 42 tables, 15 hands per table, 1 round each, $200 BR, everybody accumulates.
Day two: 294 players, 42 tables, 15 hands per table, 1 round each, $200 BR, everybody accumulates.
Top 49 accumulated BR's advance to day three.
Day three is a typical table elimination format. My question is about the day one and day two accumulation phase.

Per Wong, the two day accumulated target seemed to be +/-$950. Last two tournaments the target seems to be closer to an $800 cut-off. Choosing $800 as the target, the goal s/b to double the bank, on average, each day.

What's the best way to accumulate in this instance? :)

1. A simple progression? Can't think of a decent one as the Initial $200 BR/$100 Max bet relationship seems to put the needed doubling out of reach.

2. Come out swinging off the top?

3. Count the deck, wait (hope) for a decent TC, then come out swinging? If nothing delvelopes on Day one, save your small BR and then try and triple the Day two $200 BR?

4. ST the whole shoe (simple one pass RR) and hope to get a high count segment cut to the top? (the dealer, not the players, cut in this tournament.)

Thanks for the forum. Any suggestions appreciated.
 
Accumulation Strategy

Sun Runner, If you use the search function in this format using accumulation as the key word you'll find about 2 hours of suggestions. Good Luck!
 
You don't want to target too precisely on what has previously advanced in this tournament. You should aiming for about 30th to 35th place instead of 49th place in other words, to give you some margin for error. I'm guessing that Wong's formula number (Sqrt(294/49)*$400) = approx $980 is a little on the high side though. I'd probably shoot for $900 or just over.

How to best get there?
With only 15 hands per round, I don't think you should waste any hands waiting for an 'opportunity'. Just fire from hand one with max bets until you win all you need. Don't try to win half of it on day one and half of it on day two. Try to turn $200 into $700 on day one. If you fail and end up with zero, try to turn $200 into $900 on day two.

Using this strategy you should succeed roughly 40% of the time.
Many skilled players dislike accumulation formats, but this is a good example of why I think they're great. Only 1 player in 6 (16.67%) will make the cut, yet with this no-brainer strategy, you have a whopping 40% chance. Now that's a strong edge.

Be sure to post afterwards and let us know what the cutoff was.
Good luck!
 
Thanks to you both

to Rookie789 .. I will. It's my first time here and as the tourney starts tomorrow night I wanted to air this out. Thanks again.

to KS .. thanks for the reply. The same basic advice I received from RGE/VN last month (and did not take!). With only two/four max bets in my quiver, still wondering why waiting for a decent TC would be a bad plan!? I know the shoe could go from neutral to worse and back again leaving little time to bet and 25%/30% less to bet with. Geeez. Thanks again; I'll let you know.
 
Just played at a similar event.

On Sunday, 6/26/05, I played at a similar (top 49 advance out of a field of 270 - each entrant played once) event to what you described and pondered basically the same questions as you, Sun Runner. After seeing KenSmith's response after I played, I have to say his advice is, as usual, solid and right on the money. However, I would like to add a few comments:

1) Wong states in his book "there seems to be a simple square-root relationship ..." (I underlined "seems"). The key word here is "seems". He does not say there "is", which implies to me that he intended this as a general guideline and not a hard and fast rule. In the tournament I played, if you add 25% to the result of Wong's formula, you would have come very close to the lowest bankroll needed to advance. One big difference between your tournament and mine is that in mine there was no max bet - you can go "all in" at any time.

2) I used a simple chip-up positive progression. My base bet was 1/10 of my bankroll (remember, I can go all in at any time). Did it work? - yes! Would KenSmith's bet big advice heve worked? - yes! I saw many players bet aggressively and once they felt they accummulated enough chips, they started betting the minimum.

3) Since you used Wong as a reference before, keep in mind that he also states (not his exact words) that card counting is of questionable value since many tournaments (yours included) are only played with a small number of hands.

I don't know if this helps you with your delima or creates more problems for you. In any case, I wish you luck and look forward to hear how things turn out.

Also, I would be interested to know where this tournament is played.
 
Thanks Toolman

> In the tournament I played, if you add 25% to the result of Wong's formula, you would have come very close to the lowest bankroll
> needed to advance.

Interesting; in this instance, in the last two tournaments, it only took 80% of Wong's expected BR to advance.

> Since you used Wong as a reference before, keep in mind that he also states (not his exact words) that card counting is of
> questionable value ...

I understand. If I come off the top with max bets, and lose both, I won't be counting for very long!!

> I don't know if this helps you with your delima ...

It all helps; thanks.

> Also, I would be interested to know where this tournament is.

With all due respect I'd like for this place to stay off the grid as long as possible. Hope you understand.
 
Not willing to share info - no, I don't understand!!!

Sun Runner:

On June 27, 2005 you started a thread asking for advice under the heading "Accumulation advice needed". KenSmith, rookie789, and I responded to help you out even though you are a complete stranger to us. In my response I asked a simple qustion "I would be interested to know where this tournament is played". Your answer was "With all due respect I'd like for this place to stay off the grid as long as possible. Hope you understand." Hum, sounds like a one way street to me.

To get philosophical for a moment, without exchange of information, there is no progress and everyone is left in the dark. Starting from caveman days, exchange of information is what allowed mankind to progress.

Back to the case in point, keeping tournament location information to yourself is detrimental to everyone - including you. Don't you understand that the more BJ players know that a tournament exists the higher the turnout? The casinos like high turnouts and respond with more tournaments (low turnouts mean less tournaments). Are you starting to get the picture Sun Runner?

Having more knowledgable players in a tournament will not harm you in the long run:
1) Let's face it, although you may have an edge, most local tournaments are won by DUMB LUCKY players - they have very limited tournament knowledge. In my last tournament one guy didn't even know what a "wild card" was.

2) If tournament locations are openly shared, there would be more places for you to play and therefore more opportunities to play.

Now let's take a real life situation. I mentioned in my first response to you that I played in a similar tournament on 6/26/05. Well guess what - I found that tournament on this web site. Had I not found and played in that tournament, I would not have been able to respond to your question and you would not have had the information I supplied. Whether or not you used my information is immaterial, the fact is that if someone had not posted the tournament you would not have that information. How about now, is the picture becoming clearer Sun Runner.

Now don't get me wrong. If you had a playing strategy that made a lot of money but could be blocked by the casinos if they got wind of it, then keeping it to yourself may be the best thing to do. But that would be an extreme case and probably less than 1 in a billion BJ players will ever be in that situation.

Dont't forget that this web site is a FORUM. By definition, a forum is "an assembly for the discussion of questions of public interest". You are taking unfair advantage - you want information but are not willing to respond in kind.

I would like to hear from other members about what I said here. If there is a large disagreement with what I said here, I will bow to a large majority and apologize. Members - let's hear your response.
 
Standing Ovation

Toolman1,

You're right on the mark in my opinion, My thoughts were similar though not as eloquent as yours. When I read Sun Runner's reply post, my thoughts were simply if he requests information from BJT.com members and selfishly refuses to respond in kind he has one less member now that will offer him help.

Sun Runner; Look at the upcoming events section in this forum, the BJ tournament fairy did not post these, members posted the majority, in fact Ken Smith specifically requests members post upcoming tournaments to share with other members. This forum was created to share knowledge and information among members.
 
Thanks for your reply ..

First, you may not know me but this is not the first post to a BJ forum I have made in my life. I have pissed of one or two people in the past, and generally for that I am sorry, but most that know me know I give as much as I am able.

Second, this is a forum, I agree, and I'll be more than happy to dispense education and information about what I know to make you a better player when and if the time comes I feel my input would be valuable. Specifically, for tournament play, my knowledge is very limited, and my positive contribution to this site will be also, at least for the short term.

If you feel I have stolen something of value from you, I apologize and will understand if you do not choose to respond to any further questions or comments of mine.

Second, I don't feel obligated at all to inform you or anyone else about an opportunity I'd like to take advantage of for as long as I can before it becomes extinct.

And last, your rant about how tournaments grow, become better, more exposure, more people, etc, etc, while I would generally agree, in this instance they are short-sighted and un-informed.

You would have to look long and hard to find this casino (which I did by the way); it's not large and is way off the beaten path. You only get invited to this tournament if you log a fair amout of time at their tables on a fairly regular basis. Odds are you do not have that luxury. Even if you did, I still would prefer the hardcore players not show up. The tournament is a bonus of sorts. While the basic day to day BJ game itself .. sucks .. it does possess one trait that makes it very profitable for some and I fear could be burned out in a month or two. Call me paranoid, maybe so, but decent oppotunities like this one, in my neighborhood, are few and far between.

What else can I say. I'm happy to give as much as I can but I don't feel obligated to disclose the location of this event, one few here would qualify to play anyway.

Please accept my apology if I have offended you in some way.

Good luck.
 
Right On

Toolman, you stated it very well. The open sharing of everyone on this site with me over the last year+ has certainly helped a newcomer to become a regular. There just is no exclusive on anything in this game. Dumb luck certainly is a big factor & it is most difficult to win without it. There are plenty of opportunities for everyone as displayed by what has happened with poker tournaments & on line events. It has been good for everyone.
 
In total agreement with others

Personally Sun Runner, I must agree with toolman1 in this situation. Your attitude of not sharing seemed very condescending. I would not dare to condescend toward people who so willingly would give me advice. I know I am new to the board, but still I feel that if you are using the board for gain you should also be willing to share.
 
I agree with Toolman1, since the demise of Blackjack Confidential we all depend on each other for BJ tourney knowledge, both playing advise and just as or more important the locations of tourneys. We all give info as we receive it, this benifits all, as we are a community of fellow BJ tourney junkies not just individuals.
 
FWIW, I think the event Sun Runner is talking about is already posted in our schedule. And, I think the additional opportunity that he mentions is only applicable for a few more days.

Have I guessed correctly, SR?
 
As Yoda would say ..

.. a failure to communicate, we have.

I'm not a 'tournament junkie'.

I play blackjack. This particular tournament, in this particular casino, is a bonus. I'll play blackjack here, for the opportunity it presents, long after the tournament is over.

The blackjack play at this particular venue, not the tournament, is a tenuos opportunity that may not last forever, and therefore, no, I prefer to keep it to myself.

Personally, I find it difficult for you all not to understand that concept.

Never the less, and for the final time, I apologize if you feel I have taken without giving. That was never my intent.

Good luck to you all.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top