Another one ! (next to last hand)

PlayHunter

PlayHunter

Active Member
VESRSION1: Hand 9 out of 10. Min/Max bet 100/500 and no surrender.

BR1 (me) 1256 chips and BR2 1228 chips.

BR2 first to act on this hand and bet 250, then BR1 bet 255.

BR2 received a hard 17 and stand, Dealer up card 7 and BR1 hard 13.

I did hit, received a 10 and busted. Dealer also busted. OUCH!

It felt so bad, that made me think at this following scenario:

VERSION2: Same details, but this time BR1 bets first on this next to last hand.

So, BR1 1256 chips bet 113 and BR2 1228 chips bets only 255. (or less)

In this case, I should stand or still hit on my hard 13 ? (but if it were a hard 12 instead ?) (I am thinking that if I stand on this hand and lose I can take the high on the last hand, but if I hit and bust and a full swing will happen, then BR2 will then have a 0.75+ maxbet and I would be in very big troubles on the last hand?)
 
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Can we get some insights/advices on this one ? Until now nobody had any kind of opinion in regards to this type of situations. (true, it not happen everyday)
 
Ok, I've finally got around to looking at this one. Don't worry, I wasn't feeling hurried. I just like to look at these one at a time so as not to get any more confused than I normally am.

As with the others, I will certainly run the sims needed to figure it out, however, we can (and probably always should) talk it over in order to hone our instincts. After all, we are on our own with limited time to act during live play!

Version 1
My instinct would have been to stand. While you could possibly gain a max bet+ lead by swinging your opponent, the results of our other recent studies seem to be indicating that, unless you have a strong probability of such a lead going into the final hand, it's better to try to correlate. Your opponent could 1/2 swing you by pushing his 17 but, even with the dealer showing a 7, the possibility is not strong and you would end up less than a 1/2 max bet behind.

Version 2
This is the same situation (assuming BR2 will stand on his 17), except that you act last on the final hand. Given that acting last as BR1 is so powerful on the final hand, I would think that this is even more reason stand on your 13 (or your 12).
 
Version1 Results

I have posted results for Version1 at http://gronbog.org/results/blackjac...Another One Next to Last Hand/Another One.xls

So much for my finely honed instincts! It turns out that hitting the 13 is actually the best way to correlate vs your opponent's 17, leaving you in first place heading into the final hand 67.26% of the time vs 63.24% for standing. You would actually hit to 15 or better.

However, just because hitting is the better move in terms of correlation, does not make it necessarily the best move for the 2nd last hand. It opens up a wide range of possible situations from which the final hand will be played, some of which are negative full and 1/2 swings. As it turns out, it is the better move for overall chances of advancing at 49.96% vs 45.90% for standing.

Doubling would have the effect of widening the gap going into the final hand in all except the any/push outcomes, either making things better or worse, depending on whether we won or lost. I don't have a good sense of whether it would be better than hitting overall.
 
Thank you ! Very useful to have this one cleared. As for hitting vs doubling .. this not even crossed my mind ! (not saying it is bad .. but would look .. kamikaze)
 
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Version 2

gronbog said:
Version 2
This is the same situation (assuming BR2 will stand on his 17), except that you act last on the final hand. Given that acting last as BR1 is so powerful on the final hand, I would think that this is even more reason stand on your 13 (or your 12).
Click to expand...
Given that hitting turned out to be the best strategy for correlation on the second last hand in Version 1 then, if we assume that our opponent will stand on his 17 in Version 2, the only difference is that we act last on the final hand. I think that we can then conclude that hitting our 13 (or 12) on the second last hand would also be best in Version 2, given the strength of acting last as BR1 on the final hand.
 
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