BEST strategy for Hard Rock's weekly tourn

BughouseMaster

BughouseMaster

Banned User
Hello! This ones for all you TOURNAMENT VETERANS out there!

So their tournament has 3 initial rounds to try and make it to semi's, then finals (3 total rounds only). $20 each initial round (3 possible chances) to advance. Top 2 advance out of 6 per table. 15 hands and you start out with $500 in chips, $10 min and NO MAX. So my question to you is after the button passes you and say everyone bets small, would you bet it ALL or just a majority, say $300 so that if you lose you still have another shot in the same round? I have been varying my strategy but I feel that maybe betting the max to seize the huge lead is the best? Because if I win the large bet I just bet the minimum and more times then not that's enough to be the top 2 at the table.

So what would you say is the BEST strategy for this type of no-limit max, betting it ALL or just a big bet and why?
 
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BughouseMaster said:
Damn that's harsh. 27 views and 0 replies.... I'm already here @ Beau, was hoping to get some feedback/responses by now.... :(
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The traffic on this site has its ebbs and flows. There are only a handful or so who will answer strategy questions, and we don't always check the site every day, especially during the summer. Better to expect more lead time if asking about strategy for a specific tournament.

Hope the tournament went well for you...
 
No Limit

BughouseMaster said:
Hello! This ones for all you TOURNAMENT VETERANS out there!

So their tournament has 3 initial rounds to try and make it to semi's, then finals (3 total rounds only). $20 each initial round (3 possible chances) to advance. Top 2 advance out of 6 per table. 15 hands and you start out with $500 in chips, $10 min and NO MAX. So my question to you is after the button passes you and say everyone bets small, would you bet it ALL or just a majority, say $300 so that if you lose you still have another shot in the same round? I have been varying my strategy but I feel that maybe betting the max to seize the huge lead is the best? Because if I win the large bet I just bet the minimum and more times then not that's enough to be the top 2 at the table.

So what would you say is the BEST strategy for this type of no-limit max, betting it ALL or just a big bet and why?
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Generally your strategy through the round in no limit games is more conservative than in games in which the max bet is a fraction of the starting bankroll. This is because you can double your bankroll in one hand if you have to when you get behind and desparate.

Inexperienced players with a lead will go all-in on the final hand more often than you might expect. This gives you another way to win -- you hold back one chip.

If the game is close in the last five or so hands you can bet up to 1/3 of your chips if that is enough to catch up. Then if that bet loses you can either go all-in on the next hand or re-evaluate your situation.

On the fourth or fifth-last hand you can bet 1/5 of your chips. If that wins you can bet 1/3 of your new bankroll, if necessary to catch up. If the initial 1/5 bet or the following 1/3 bet loses, you can either go all-in or re-evaluate your situation. This 1/5 strategy, if successful, increases your bankroll by 3/5 60% of the time. You bust out 40% of the time.

Don't just mechanically proceed with these exact fractions unless the chip counting and mental arithmetic get away from you. It's not bad but it's not best. Best is to know and bet exactly what you need to get the lead.
 
It may be too late for you, but here is my 2 cents.

It may be presumptious of me, but I believe the vast majority of the people on this board who respond to requests are going to be very conservative players. They would much rather bet low and hope their opponents get what they deserve and self-destruct by making big early bets. This leaves fewer people to contend with at the end.

That being said let's look at your 2 bet options.

Suppose I went to play and get to my table looking left and right and see Ken, Drbass, BJbeauty, Moses and deltaduke at the table. This is an unlikely scenario, but a group that occasionally posts to the board and play in that area. After muttering to myself about the tournament director and karma, I wonder how I got stuck with this pool of sharks. They are likely to be a bunch of pita's in the last 4 or 5 hands. So I decide to try to run away with the table.

If you push the big bet out early and win the hand, of course you have gained and advantage since you have beaten the odds (44%) of winning the bet. You also paint a target on your back.

I would prefer the 500 bet, because I might get a BJ. Winning 750 would put me out of range for a single bet win (w/o a BJ). The sharks would likely ignore the target, for a long time even with just a win, since there is still one place left to advance. I might get to coast the rest of the way through 15 hands betting minimum.

If I bet 300, even with a BJ, I would still be within 1 bet range of being overtaken.

What betting position would I consider for this manuver? With 15 hands (assuming no one drops out early), if I was the 1st player on the first hand, I would be the last player on 2, 8 and 14. The 2nd player bets last on 3, 9 and 15. The 3rd, 4th and 5th players all get 2 chances to bet last. The 6th player gets to be last on 1, 7 and 13. I would be unlikely to make this play in 1st or 2nd player position. Being in the last 2 bettors on the last couple of hands is a small advantage that I would not want to give up. As the 6th bettor on the first hand I would prefer to wait until the 7th hand to make a decision. Who knows, maybe one of the first 2 had bad luck and dropped way down. So If I was going to make the big bet, I would probably do it as player 3, 4 or 5 when the button had past me.

Good luck.

Larry
 
Thanks for the replies, Monkey & Larry. I made the semis but got bad cards at both times I made my big bet to keep the pressure on the leader so busted out trying.

Monkey, why would the strategy for this no-limit type tournament be more conservative? I've played in their tournament probably over 10 times now and until the very last hand, people typically are afraid to push all their chips in... the way I see it is it's just 1 hand and if I win it I have a huge lead over everyone else or as Wong states, I simply "bust out trying"!

Btw, I have just got Wong's "Casino Tournament Strategy" book and I'm loving it!
 
In a no-limit tournament, you can always catch up in a few hands, no matter how far back you are. That's why you can afford to be more conservative. Opponents who have a large lead also sometimes blow it all on one hand, so being patient sometimes pays unexpected dividends.

In general, remember that a large lead has a value that is inversely proportional to the number of hands left. If you have a large lead after the final hand, you win. If you have one hand to go, you still have to worry that someone can catch you. If you extend this idea into the early part of the round, the large lead no longer has a tremendous value.

If more than one player advances, it is true that a big lead early can dissuade chasers. However, more often than not, the field will tighten at the end and you will still be a target.
 
Thanks for the reply, Ken!

Personally, would you bet it all the moment the button passes you and everyone else has a rather small bet out? That's what I did this wkend and it rewarded me by coasting into the semis, but at the semi's there was 1 other shark and he did the same so it was me versus him pretty much as the hands went by. The 2nd time the button passed me I had around 950 so I bet around 400 so that I'd have another shot if it lost since they only took 1 to the final table, lost it, then went ahead and bet it all next hand and caught bad cards again. Still, fun times though!
 
Would I bet it all when the button passes and the other bets are small? It completely depends on the situation and how many hands are left. If I can accomplish my goal with a smaller bet, I'll make the smaller bet. If I need to risk more than half my stack anyway, I'll probably be all-in.

I tend to play closer to the pack than many people are comfortable with, counting on endplay to help me out. Sometimes that's a good idea, sometimes bad. :D There is no sure thing.
 
"Would I bet it all when the button passes and the other bets are small? It completely depends on the situation and how many hands are left."

Lets say the situation was very early in the round... lets say the 1st time the button passed you, you would not bet in? I really thought you would, bec I read your tournament strategies stuff and you said that you're a bettor of extremes.... either real big or real small.... wouldn't you say that betting it all would be getting the most VALUE for your chips since this is a tourney? Then betting min all the way out 'til another big bet is called for?
 
Very early in the round, you don't know yet whether that risk is necessary. In addition, you may not be able to minimum bet out even if you win the hand. I'll instead wait until later in the round, when I know for sure that the all in bet is needed.
 
Ken, your last response confused me because I thought you were an aggressive player in tournaments... whether it be the beginning of the round or end of the round, in order to advance I'll have to make a big bet SOMETIME so why take my chances towards the end of the round when all the others could also be doing the same thing?

Why not get it over and done with at the best chance I have in the early part of the round? This is what I've always done mainly from what I have seen you post on the tournament articles...
 
BughouseMaster said:
Why not get it over and done with at the best chance I have in the early part of the round? This is what I've always done mainly from what I have seen you post on the tournament articles...
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Assuming that you're still referring to making an all-in bet at a no limit table, the reason is simple: If an all-in bet is the only way for you to catch up, it's best to make it as late as possible. The reason is that it leaves your opponents with very few (or even zero) hands to catch you.

As Ken has pointed out, if you do it on the final hand, it gives your opponents no chance at all to counter. The more hands, remaining after your big bet, the higher the chance that somone will catch you.

Stated from a theoretical point of view, you have to do two things
  1. Win your big bet (P1)
  2. Hang on to your lead (P2)
The probability of both occurring is obtained by multiplying the two together
P1 x P2​
P1 doesn't change wher you make your big bet early or late, however, P2 increases as the number of hands remaining decreases, becoming 1 on the final hand. So your overall chance of succeeding increases the longer you wait.

As has also been pointed out, waiting also gives your opponents the chance to make mistakes which can benefit you. The most common is that many players go all-in on the final hand, even when ahead, giving you the chance to hold back a chip and beat them by going low.

Note that that all of this depends on an all-in bet being required to accomplish your goal. As Ken has also pointed out, if you can accomplish your goal with a smaller bet (note smaller, does not necessarily mean small), then you should do so.

If the tournament has a maximum bet which is a small fraction of your bankroll, say 1/4 or less, then betting max early in the round when behind can be effective, since the risk is reduced and you have the time and bankroll to recover.
 
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Okay, I'm happy to see another reply as I was losing hope already... really wish more people posted on this board. :eek:

So since it's 15 hands, maybe betting big the 2nd time the button goes past me instead of the 1st? Would you guys be agreeable to this?

Still dont quite see what's so wrong about going all in as early as possible, because yes they have a chance to catch up to me if I win that bet, but conversely, if I wait til later in the round, there may be more then 1 person who made a big bet that I'd need to catch! And if there's only 1 more chance that the button passes me for me to make an advantageous bet (judging on what the others bet at the table), then my chances will be lower! Right???
 
Now if someone would bother to reply to my other post from over 10 days ago in the "Tournaments" section that'd be great too. And Ken, if you read this, please send me a private message. Thank you.
 
BughouseMaster said:
Still dont quite see what's so wrong about going all in as early as possible, because yes they have a chance to catch up to me if I win that bet, but conversely, if I wait til later in the round, there may be more then 1 person who made a big bet that I'd need to catch!
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If your bet is big enough to catch the leader, or to put you in an advancing position, then it's big enough to catch everyone else in between as well.
BughouseMaster said:
And if there's only 1 more chance that the button passes me for me to make an advantageous bet (judging on what the others bet at the table), then my chances will be lower! Right???
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Since we're talking about an all-in bet, there is only one chance. You are no more likely to win that bet earlier in the round than later. As long as that all-in bet is still sufficient (and necessary) to put you in position, you are better to wait. Of course, should the situation change while you're waiting, then you need to re-evaluate.

Note that "as late as possible" still leaves room for adjustment depending on the situation. It might mean "the last time the button passes" or it might mean "the last time my main opponent(s) bet before me". It might menan"wait until the final hand". It all depends on the situation and what kind of read you have on your opponents.
 
gronbog said:
If your bet is big enough to catch the leader, or to put you in an advancing position, then it's big enough to catch everyone else in between as well.
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Also, if I wait til closer to the end, and other players at the table already did a large bet, I may not even have enough chips to catch up to them.... for example..... that's a problem with waiting til the end so that's why I think betting it all at the 1st opportunity is ideal..... do you understand what im saying?
 
BughouseMaster said:
Also, if I wait til closer to the end, and other players at the table already did a large bet, I may not even have enough chips to catch up to them.... for example..... that's a problem with waiting til the end so that's why I think betting it all at the 1st opportunity is ideal..... do you understand what im saying?
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Of course it is possible that others at your table will bet big and build up a big lead. It is also possible that they will bet big and bust out. You have asked for the advice of experienced players and have received several responses. The consensus among several very experienced players here is that you will be successful more often if you wait before resorting to an all-in bet. There is no guarantee, just the assertion that, more often than not, you will do better. You have also been shown some simple math which backs up this assertion. It is now up to you to consider the discussion and decide how you will use the information. For my part, if you were at my table, I would be very happy to see you go all-in early in the round. If you lose, you're done. If you win, you're only one bet ahead of me with plenty of hands remaining.
 
gronbog said:
.... if you were at my table, I would be very happy to see you go all-in early in the round. If you lose, you're done. If you win, you're only one bet ahead of me with plenty of hands remaining.
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Agree 100%. I love big-bet bombers who jump in early with max bets. :D

As Gronbog pointed out, some highly accomplished players have chimed in here with roughly the same opinion re: betting big too early. Free advice from some of the best in the world! You can either take it, or ignore it because you don't agree, but arguing strategy with players of this caliber isn't going to endear yourself to the BJT.com membership at large in the future.
 
re-buys

I have played the Hard Rock Tournaments several times and have had some success playing the exact strategy mentioned by Gronbog and LeftNut. I have made it to the final table several times but have never won. :sad: Many players will go all in early in the 1st round because they can re-buy in if they bust out. So waiting later will pay off more often than not. Also, two players advance to the 2nd round (semi-finals), so waiting until after the 12th hand will find yourself at the table with only three players many times. In the semi-finals, players seem to be more cautious in the first seven rounds. They will then start to bomb away. So waiting later in the semi-finals will also find yourself at the table most of the time with only three players left after the 12th hand. At this point (13th hand), it is time to assess the situation and bet accordingly to give yourself the best chance to advance.

baseballcoach
 
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