Betting/Playing strategy

J

johng

New Member
Great site, Ken, Thanks!

I was at LVH tournament this weekend and had two interesting final hands in round 2 & round 4. I am still trying to figure out what would have been best strategy for both me and other players.

Here is round 2 final hand

P1 (me, on button): 5500 bankroll, bet 2500
P2: 5050, bet 2500
P3: 5850, bet 2500
P4: 4550, bet 2400

Dealer shows 9

P1: A-6
P2: 5-3
P3: 9-7
P4: 10-2

I hit K and stand on 17. P2 surrenders. P3 hits, gets 2 and stands on 18. P4 double downs gets 4 and has 16. Dealer turns over small card and busts.

Final results:
P1: 8000
P2: 3800
P3: 8350
P4: 8950

Forgetting about actual results, it seemed to me that P3 would have had a better chance statistically by surrendering. Additionally, I know in this circumstance doubling for a small amount would have helped me advance, but considering my position and dealers strong card it didn't seem reasonable at time to put out more money.

Any thoughts on best strategy for this situation are appreciated.

John

P.S. I won the wild card for round 4 and will post that final hand later.

Thanks!
 
Johng,
Here are some comments.

Without knowing your opponents style of play (their tendencies to surrender in particular) it is difficult to decide what play would be most effective.

Let’s start with your bet. The best bet is 2300 -it covers all you need for the upside and gives you extra 200 savings if you lose or 100 savings if you surrender. The only exception would be that by betting a round 2,500 –the maximum bet- you incite other players to also bet maximum, which gives you additional chances of the “low”.

Seeing that dealer has a good card (9) and other players’ hands are not so good would suggest that best choice may be to surrender.
Two out of three players would have to push or win if BR1 doesn’t surrender to make you advance about 60% of times, or BR3 or BR4 need to push/win if BR1 surrenders for your chance of under 40%.
Just under 40% is also exactly your chance of advancing if you hit to 17 and Player 2 (BR3) and Player 4 (BR4) doubling and Player 3 (BR1) hitting if you end up with 19 or better, otherwise BR3 surrendering and BR1 standing when you have 18 or less and surrendering when you bust. Guess what? If all other players hit (very unlikely) and BR4, as he did, doubles - your chances claim back to about 60%.
Your fate is, so to speak, in the “hands” of your opponents ;).

Hit if you think BR1 is likely to surrender his hand if you don’t make a good hand (19 or better) -otherwise surrender.

As to your doubling for less, you would need to double for exactly 400. If you double and BR1 just hits you may overcome him and if you lose and BR3 loses full bet you still end up with more money. However, BR1 has a “free double” for less to match your bet and completely nullify it. The real benefits of your doubling would be that often times players like to emulate action that just happened. If by your doubling you motivate BR3 and BR4 to double down, instead of surrendering when you end up busting or with hands of 17 and 18, you increase your chances quite a bit. The downside is that you may end up with less than 17 and then your chances (if two players surrender or get good hands) are under 23%.

You are right, in the situation you described, BR1 would be better off by surrendering. He would advance if the dealer makes 18, or if the dealer busts or has 17 and BR4 at least pushes - for a total chance in the high eighties. BR1 hitting has only 30% chance if BR4 plays right.

Good luck in your next Hilton qualification :cool:.

S. Yama
 
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TOO many left to bet minimum(unless the D had not had a BJ)

I guess 2500 was max bet- so each has a not so spiffy hand. If this was a funny money
tourney-all were in the same bucket-so DD or DD for less. You all did make the max bet
and then cringed. If it is a live money affair, you must decide either to keep your BR,
and bet min, or throw caution to the wind and proceed as above.

Got myself into the same trap in december

johng said:
Great site, Ken, Thanks!

I was at LVH tournament this weekend and had two interesting final hands in round 2 & round 4. I am still trying to figure out what would have been best strategy for both me and other players.

Here is round 2 final hand

P1 (me, on button): 5500 bankroll, bet 2500
P2: 5050, bet 2500
P3: 5850, bet 2500
P4: 4550, bet 2400

Dealer shows 9

P1: A-6
P2: 5-3
P3: 9-7
P4: 10-2

I hit K and stand on 17. P2 surrenders. P3 hits, gets 2 and stands on 18. P4 double downs gets 4 and has 16. Dealer turns over small card and busts.

Final results:
P1: 8000
P2: 3800
P3: 8350
P4: 8950

Forgetting about actual results, it seemed to me that P3 would have had a better chance statistically by surrendering. Additionally, I know in this circumstance doubling for a small amount would have helped me advance, but considering my position and dealers strong card it didn't seem reasonable at time to put out more money.

Any thoughts on best strategy for this situation are appreciated.

John

P.S. I won the wild card for round 4 and will post that final hand later.

Thanks!
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