chasing sometimes works

S

S. Yama

Active Member
Semifinal of a nice tournament, one of the five advances. Starting bankroll $5K, max bet 2K, min. 100, no double after split, no surrender, 20 rounds.

One of the players makes aggressive bets from the get-go and it pays off for her, by round ten she is has over 16k, couple other players start chasing but it doesn’t work for them, I start going for it at hand 13 (super early for me) and I am getting closer. Some doubles, a blackjack and one low hand and with two hands to go there are only two of us left and I am leading by 200!

I keep the score in my head but before she makes her bet I “double check” the chip counts and she tells me: “Oh, I have you by about four grands” and bets one black chip ($100). She had mostly yellow ($1k chips) and I had a bunch of hundreds.

Okay, I like it, and bet one chip, too. She gets total 11, doubles, get a face card, I stand on my 14 vs dealer’s 4, and lose to the dealer’s pat hand.

Damned it, now it is the official count down and everybody now knows that she leads me by one chip and I have to bet first.

I push slightly in front of me nine black chips, make an equal column of black chips, run my hand over it to make sure it is the same, put it one on the top of the other, and slide it into the betting circle, sure it looks like max bet of $2K. The dealer reaches to break my stack and count it but I politely though firmly say that it is an okay bet for sure (the rules say that overbet would be corrected to only a max allowed).

My opponent quickly bets two yellow chips. Okay, I have a low and possibly a double down/split.

And here comes the bj tournament teaser:


S. Yama
 
Last hand, one player advances, your bankroll is 16,100, your somewhat experienced and aggressively playing opponent has 16,200. Min 100, max 2,000, no DAS. Your bet is 1,800, acting first and the opponent’s bet is 2,000.

Your hand is pair of treys, she gets total of ten, and the dealer shows seven upcard.

1. Do you stay on your total of 6

2. Do you hit (to what total)?

3. Do you double for a full amount or for less (it is almost certain she will double if you double)?

4. Do you split (what totals do you stop at on the first and the second split hands)?

S. Yama
 
Why give up the low by risking additional chips to try for the high when the opponent will simply counter with a double-for-less matching bet? The chances of a dealer 10 in the hole is 30.77%, then add to that the chance of the dealer improving a less than 17 hand to a made hand. Result... you want to keep the low, so just hit until you get to at least 12, keeping the low, and perhaps even get lucky and take the high with, say, 3-3-5-10 (or other combinations).
 
My tournament (30 s) responses are below
1. You cleverly took the low without letting her know. Your hope that you both lose or you get a half or full swing. So, staying on 6 will not work as she is likely to win having 10 against 7.
2. I would hit until 18. I prefer that to hit until stiff as winning a stiff by dealer busting would not help you.
3. I would not double because she will matches it either for less or same. Doubling will essentially eliminate your chance of getting beyond 17 and it makes a swing less likely. It will limit her hitting to one card, if she doubles, but the effect of that reducing her chance of winning must be weighed against reducing your chance for a swing. I think but without calculations that the effect on her hand is minor compared to the effect on your hand.
4. Splitting will work only if you split to 3 hands to get the high but the chance of this is small.

So, my quick answer hit to 18 and hope for a half or full swing.
 
Last edited:
Here are my quick answers:

1. Technically, there is no point in standing on a six, unless you have next-card or hole-card information. Perhaps there could be psychological reasons, but I can't think of one. No other action you can take can make this hand any worse, and hitting, doubling or splitting could improve it. As a point of interest, for performance reasons, my software does not consider standing on any total less than 12 or any soft total less than 17.

2. If hitting, I would hit to 17, since you have a possible 1/2 swing at that point.

3. Even given your read that she will almost certainly double of you do, it could be an improvement over hitting. If she also doubles, you do no give up the low, but you do increase the chance that she will lose her hand, since she can take only one card. The key is that she thinks she has your bet correlated, so she will in fact almost certainly double if you do.

4. The value of splitting would come in the form of a higher probability of an overall push which would improve your chance at a 1/2 swing. Also, since she thinks she has your bet correlated, she will almost certainly double if you split here, so you don't lose the low. This only occurred to me while thinking about this in the comfort of my office-chair. In the heat of battle, I probably would not have split.

Overall, I think that splitting is the best play, followed by doubling but, in the heat of battle, I would probably have hit to 17.
 
Last edited:
gronbog said:
Here are my quick answers:
The value of splitting would come in the form of a higher probability of an overall push which would improve your chance at a 1/2 swing.
Click to expand...

I am trying to better understand this point. If he is taking the low, so a push has the same effect as a loss. He advances only if she lost her hand regardless of either a push or a loss in his hand.
 
Brain cramp on my part. You are correct, of course. Thanks. With this point taken, I don't think that splitting has any value, for the reason that you pointed out above.
 
gronbog said:
Here are my quick answers:

1. Technically, there is no point in standing on a six, unless you have next-card or hole-card information. Perhaps there could be psychological reasons, but I can't think of one.
Click to expand...
I was pondering the same question. I came up with one possible reason - Standing on 6 would be quite a startling thing to do, and could only really be interpreted as either the act of someone making a show of giving up, or someone misreading their hand.

Either way, believing she has a lock, the opponent might be jolted into following suit and standing on her 10, either to save the dealer the work of dealing another card, or to twist the knife by highlighting the apparent blunder.

gronbog said:
Here are my quick answers:
No other action you can take can make this hand any worse, and hitting, doubling or splitting could improve it. As a point of interest, for performance reasons, my software does not consider standing on any total less than 12 or any soft total less than 17.

2. If hitting, I would hit to 17, since you have a possible 1/2 swing at that point.

3. Even given your read that she will almost certainly double of you do, it could be an improvement over hitting. If she also doubles, you do no give up the low, but you do increase the chance that she will lose her hand, since she can take only one card. The key is that she thinks she has your bet correlated, so she will in fact almost certainly double if you do.

4. The value of splitting would come in the form of a higher probability of an overall push which would improve your chance at a 1/2 swing. Also, since she thinks she has your bet correlated, she will almost certainly double if you split here, so you don't lose the low. This only occurred to me while thinking about this in the comfort of my office-chair. In the heat of battle, I probably would not have split.

Overall, I think that splitting is the best play, followed by doubling but, in the heat of battle, I would probably have hit to 17.
Click to expand...

I can see a possible reason to avoid splitting or doubling for the full amount - Counting out the chips for a bet matching the original gives another opportunity for the dealer to step in and announce the bet size (or for the opponent to notice it on her own). If that were to happen, she could then recover the situation by doubling for less.

So, if doubling, maybe it would be best to make it for just a couple of $100 chips, so as not to draw attention to the relative size of the original chip stack.

I'm not at all sure what the best action is. Going down the psychological route of the first idea, I'm wondering about either hitting just once (seeking to avoid the risk of making a good hand!), or even deliberately busting the hand. Either way, the apparent lock is hopefully made more apparent.

Don't know if the benefits of playing those mind games would outweigh what you lose - the possibility of the win/push, half-swing route to victory.
 
Last edited:
"I can see a possible reason to avoid splitting or doubling for the full amount - Counting out the chips for a bet matching the original gives another opportunity for the dealer to step in and announce the bet size (or for the opponent to notice it on her own). If that were to happen, she could then recover the situation by doubling for less.
Click to expand...

I think he could break down couple of yellows to blacks as if he is trying to think about the proper bet or to gain time. Then he can just match the existing column. This procedure will not allow the dealer to count down the chips.
 
Keep the Low and don't bet any additional chips (this also doesn't call attention to the cleverly executed bet). Also, since you have a Free Hit, hit until you reach 18 and you might also possibly get the high.
 
Most fun for me in the above situation was to analyze what makes the chances of advancing change. Some details next week, but for now just some of my raw numbers for my opponent chances to advance:

1. I hit and stand on 17 or less, she hits to 17 (she should, except hit to 16 if I have 17) – 65.1%

2. I double and she matches my double -- 63.3%

3. I split and hit both hands to no bust – 62.9%

4. I hit to 17 (overall score) she hits to 17 – 62.05%

5. I hit to 18 (overall score) she hits to 17 – 61.8%

6. I “make” her to stand on her total ten – 26.2%


S. Yama
 
Last edited:
Nice work but I would exclude number 6. No reason to stand on 10 nor there is a way to make someone to stand on 10 that I can think of.
 
Last edited:
The key to all of this, is that she believes that she has correlated S. Yama's bet. Given the read that she is somewhat experienced, all decisions should be based on the principle that she will react accordingly. e.g. will not bust if S. Yama stands on a stiff, will match a double/split with a double etc.
 
The situation is:

Player..........BkRll..........Bet..........Cards.........Action

Yama..........16100.........1800..........3+3............???
Lady...........16200.........2000.........7+3............???

Dealer................................................7


My Numbers:
From the rules posted by Yama this sounds like a Vegas Golden Nugget tournament where 2 decks are used.
Since I don't know the lady's actual cards that total up to 10, I will use infinite deck for outcomes.

Theoretically Yama should hit to either soft 18 or hard 18 to fight a possible Lady push with also a Dealer outcome of 17. This is a type of free hit that I call "Fighting the Push". [If the dealer up card was a 10 then Yama should hit to soft or hard 19]
Since Yama has the low here a bust by Yama will not eliminate him just yet where he would be if he needed a full swing or 1/2 swing. You need a swing when you have neither the high or low. If the lady had Bet correctly by also betting 1800 then Yama would need a swing.

(1) Yama here says that he hits to 17 or "less"?? How much less? I don't understand his strategy here.
If Yama ends up with 17 the Lady should attempt to hit to 17 or more then she has a 64.83% chance of advancing.
See 4 and 5 below.

(2) Yama announces that he is doubling for less and doubles for 1500 and the lady also doubles for 1500 then The Lady's chance to advance drops to 63.55%
However if Yama doubles for 1500 and now the Lady realizes she over bet originally and correctly correlates with a double of 1300 then the Lady's chance
to advance now jumps to 98.91%!! Not worth Yama's risk to double if Lady some how realizes her original bet was wrong.
By doubling with 3+3 Yama needs to be delt an A and needs the Lady to ends up with a stiff and needs the dealer ends up with 17. Too much to expect.

(3) If Yama splits and plays not to bust and standing with H12S18 and the Lady doubles her chance to advance is only 63.24%. Perhaps best Yama chance.

(4) If Yama ends up with 17, Lady needs to hit to 17 or better for 67.86% chance.

(5) If Yama ends up with 18, Lady should attempt to hit to 18! or better. Perhaps to counter the "Fight the Push". For a 63.87% chance to win.
For Lady attempting to hit to 17 or better yields only 63.76 chance to win.
For all other (other than a Yama 18) Yama outcomes (even a Yama bust or Yama 21) Lady should attempt to hit to 17. The Lady is too close to busting to
to try to counter a "Fight the Push" free hit when Yama has a 19.

(6) If Yama stands!! and the Lady also stands ("to twist the knife".....but don't expect this too often) then her chance to advance drops to 23.26%.
By Yama standing with 3+3 he gives up the "Fighting the Push" chance and if the Lady's attempts to hit to 17 then her chance to advance goes to 67.86%
However if there is a 31% chance (or more) of the Lady standing with 10 then Yama standing with 3+3 is the way to go.

...............................................................................BlueLight
 
In my first Golden Nugget tournament where 2 advance out of the 1st round I was 1 of 3 remaining. One player split up to 3 hands and took the lead when he won. However I was in 2nd place going into the final few hands and was usually acting AFTER BR3. However toward the end I was swung and fell to 3rd. Going into the last hand the situation was as follows.

BR1.........Way Ahead
BR2.........3300
Blue.........2050

BR2 had a $1000 chip, a $500 chip, and 18 $100 chips.
He plopped the 2 big chips (the 1000 and 500) into the betting circle, and stacked up all his 18 $100 chips in a neat vertical stack away from the betting circle. He was hoping that me seeing his "small" 2 chip bet and him holding a mountain of $100 chips that I would max bet and he would have the high and the low. I hadn't bothered to remember the chip count that was given going into the last hand since I thought that I had to win a max bet no matter what to even have a chance. His tall unbet chip stack was impossible to count; especially since they were black chips.
I had 15 black $100 chips, a purple $500 chip, and 2 green $25 chips. When it was my turn to bet I pushed my $500 chip toward the dealer I said "I need some black chips". The dealer took my purple and gave me 5 black chips. I now stacked up all but one of black chips and my stack "seemed" to taller than his "UNBET" stack and even if my stack was not taller then the 2 $25 chips would let me hold back more chips. So I bet a single $100 chip taking the LOW. The situation was.

Player.............BkRll.............Hold.............Bet..................Cards

BR1................WyAhd
BR2................3300..............1800...........1500..................10+3
Blue................2050..............1950.............100..................10+5
DEALER................................................................................6

When it came to his turn to act he thought for a few seconds (I was worried he might hit) and stood. I stood also.
The dealer turned over the "expected" hole card 10, but the hit card was a 3!

The Lady in Yama's example could have stacked some black chips up in a stack and try to match Yama's "BET" stack.
What did the Lady eventually bet?

In my example I know that BR2 knew some thing about tournament BJ and from his play it seems that he thought I was one of the many bad players in these tournaments. When it came for his turn to bet he didn't bother count out 2100 chips in order to hold my bankroll plus a chip (same as betting his lead minus a chip). By holding 2100 and betting 1200 he would have the HIGH and LOW and even win if he suffers the PUSH-LOSE swing.
Since he had a bankroll of at least 1.5 x My BkRll + 1 chip he could have had this HIGH and LOW and PUSH-LOSE bet.
But the chip ratio was close for this and if his bankroll going into the last hand was only 3000 he would NOT have been able take both the HIGH and LOW. Perhaps he thought this was the situation and bet as he did.

................................................................BlueLight
 
Good example of how people act hastily in the last round. I think it was Ken Smith who said "optimal bet is only optimal if the other player bet optimal"
I think the Lady in Yama's example put 2k. He had a good read on her.
 
Last edited:
Wow! What a great work everybody, thanks for looking into it.

I like the terms used “to twist the knife” and “fight the push” – worth including them in bj tournaments lexicon.

Exceptional work (as usual) with numbers by BlueLight, that was a lot of great computing. Some of the numbers differ a bit, though they are proportionally in the same order, but that was not the point. The point was that in most cases it was the fight for the push, which for one hit (double) is ~7.5% and slightly more if hit to 17 or 18. This could be achieved by hitting my hand to a total that would be higher than assumed opponent’s push, or by limiting her to get a higher total by her hitting only once. Special case would be splitting, which would offer both and the possibility of resplitting the second hand if the total of the first split hand was a good one. The problem with that option is that (as BL noted) I can’t bust either of my split hands to avoid giving up the low to my opponent if she just hits. Also, I knew that I am dealing with low to mid sixties percent for double or hitting but to get the approximate number for splitting at the table was beyond my capacity. I also knew that hitting a hand less than total 7 to no bust results about 70% with a total smaller than 17, which seemed to reduce the chance of getting a better outcome than hitting or doubling.

At the table I decided to double for less using one 500 chip. I got a Ten, and she responded with double for the whole 2K (!) and got a Ten, the dealer had a Ten hole card. Game over.

If you had asked me at the table I would probably assign values as two percent better for hitting than splitting, and two percent better to double than hitting.

I just needed my opponent to be a little bit more experienced and “in your face” to stand on my total of 6. I have seen players making a mistake and others making and obvious departure from correct play to “twist the knife”. Considering that I am giving up 4%-5% by standing and gaining 40% if she stands on her total ten, I just needed a bit more than 10% chance for it to be the best play.

Good cards,

S. Yama
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top