(complex) Question about optimal strategy.

PlayHunter

PlayHunter

Active Member
We are here on the Final Hand. Min/Max bet 100/1000 and Surrender allowed. BR1 2501 chips first to act and BR2 2100 chips.

OK I have learned that at such a lead the best bet for BR1 is 800 and that playing optimal strategy will yield a 64% win rate.

Q: How to apply optimal strategy ? When BR1 have to: 1. Surrender, 2. Double, 3. Hit (up to ?), 4. take Insurance, 5. Split.

PS: - If I can get this one fully cleared and learn it, I think I will be improving my overall win ratio with about 0.5% which is big.
 
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many variables

PlayHunter,

If you decide to surrender then you know that your opponent can not win his hand. There will be different numbers for his chances of winning based on his hand and dealer's up-card.
Once you know the value of surrendering you have to compare it to chances of your winning if you use other playing strategy, which will depend on ... you know, your hand, your opponent's hand and the dealer's up-card.

Double that covers opponent double, who acts after you, where single bet covers single bet is one of the most difficult plays. This is because you have to calculate/estimate/guess your chances of winning double plus push when he pushes or loses and compare it to his chances of not winning double.

For example if his chance of winning double plus the chance for his double push when you lose your not doubling actions is 55% - then you should consider doubling if your hand wins, plus pushes when he doesn't wins his single bet, is greater than 45%.
Of course that 45% has to be a better outcome than the ones resulting from surrendering or hitting/standing.

In your specific scenario, and similar situations, you always (or almost always, can't think of anything specific of the top of my head, though, there may be close situations like both players 11 dealer has 6) take insurance except when you have a bj.

S. Yama
 
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Thank you so much Mr. S. Yama ! For such a general question, I do not think I could receive a better response. And your insights are very valuable for me!

I also know that those decisions for BR1 will also depend on BR2 bet. I think that most BR2 players will just bet 1000, but few better players will bet 797.

And with all this in mind, I was thinking at making this thread some sort of interactive one, bringing up certain examples for both BR2 bets 1000 and 797.

For example BR1 have a pair of 6s and and BR2 have soft 13 while dealer up card is 9. What BR1 should do in this case ? (I think this will be a great thread)
 
PlayHunter said:
And with all this in mind, I was thinking at making this thread some sort of interactive one, bringing up certain examples for both BR2 bets 1000 and 797.

For example BR1 have a pair of 6s and and BR2 have soft 13 while dealer up card is 9. What BR1 should do in this case ? (I think this will be a great thread)
Click to expand...
BR1: BR 2501, Bet 800, Hand 6,6
BR2: BR 2100, Bet 1000, Hand Soft 13
Dealer 9
Assuming BR2 plays optimally, the percentages for BR1's possible actions are:

Stand: 58.42%,
Surrender: 57.34%,
Hit Once: 56.10%,
Split: 44.19%,
Double: 32.00%

If BR2 bets 797:

Surrender: 57.34%,
Split: 38.10%,
Double: 32.00%,
Hit to 15 or better: 28.26%,
Stand: 22.99%
 
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Double or Surrender ?

In this scenario BR2 (2001 chips) act last on the last hand with a 790 bet and wins if either he wins with double, or BR1 (2404 chips) lose his 800 bet .

BR1 stand on his hard 18, dealer up card 6 and BR2 hard 15. - Should BR2 double or surrender for the best chances to win ?

- I think BR2 has a double there, but a surrender if he had a hard 16 or higher, or if the dealer had a lower card.

Second scenario:- all the same details but this time BR1 stand on his hard 18, while dealer had an 8 up card and BR2 hard 16.

- Is this still a double or a surrender for BR2 best chances to win this game ? - I think this case is a double, but if BR2 got a hard 17 instead, then surrender.
 
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