Correlate with BR2 or BR3?

The_Professional

The_Professional

Active Member
Final hand 2 players advance. Betting is 100-2000, no double after split. Players listed in order of play.

BR2 has 9300 bets 100
BR3 has 7700 bets 2000
BR1 has 9350 bets ??
What should BR1 bet and why?
 
1 Minute answer --- you can cover BR3 high and low without exposing yourself to losing while he pushes by betting 1625 (assuming betting increments of 25 and using the rule of thumb to bet as much as possible while still taking the low). In order to to cover BR2 high and low, you need to expose yourself to the 1/2 swing which was avoided above (bet would be 125). Going big also covers naturals by both opponents where going small only covers BR2's natural. Both bets allow you to double/split for an advancing position if necessary.

It looks like going big to cover BR3 has the edge. Bet 1625.

I don't have my copy of Wong handy, but this smells like one of the examples where you take second low automatically, but only if its 2 advancing out of 3.
 
I think 800 might be marginally better than 1625 -

Assuming the rules allow for splitting to a max of four hands and double after split, there is no benefit from betting any higher than 800, since you have BR2 totally locked out if you win the hand.

Restricting the bet to 800 means you can afford to split a pair (increasing your chance of a net push), while still keeping more chips unbet than BR3.
 
Yeah, I just wanted to put one of the "rules of thumb" we discussed in the other thread into play. Nice read on the bet of 800 though. The net push is also valuable vs BR2. Since BR2 only bet 100, we don't need to be able to counter a double by BR3 (making my point above about being able to double irrelevant).
 
400 takes first high and second low, plus covers doubles and splits by BR2, as well as beating BR3 if he doesn't win his hand. 100 takes first low and second high but you may have to double to keep second high if BR2 doubles. Even though the Wong book says to prefer first low-second high over first high-second low, I like 400 better because of the double down and split pair coverage. Anything from 400 to 800 looks good. But 400 gives you a chance to resplit twice without jeopardizing your push coverage over BR3. Admittedly, two resplits is truly a long shot.

If DAS were allowed, 800 would be best.

You play as if a push is as bad as a loss. https://www.blackjacktournaments.com/threads/push-win-tables.5036/
 
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