Help me with this hand

[chriscinsocal]

I just played this hand 25 (elimination hand) in a $20 buy in sit n go. I had to decide to double or not double. Obviously based on results, a double would have been in order, but what is the correct play? OH - I am AceMcEllis

Thanks.

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Hand 36061072-25 begins.
The button is at seat 1.
Tournament round 1, hand 25 of 30.
This is an elimination hand.
Joe Pane is in seat 1 with 53,000.
AceMcEllis is in seat 3 with 59,250.
Shawn Rice is in seat 4 with 64,500.

Betting:
Joe Pane bets 25,000.
AceMcEllis bets 25,000.
Shawn Rice bets 20,000.

Dealing cards:
Joe Pane: Jh Ks.
AceMcEllis: 8s Ad.
Shawn Rice: 6h 2h.
The dealer shows 8d.

Joe Pane (Jh Ks) splits.
Joe Pane is dealt 6d.
Joe Pane (Jh 6d) stands with 16.
Joe Pane is dealt Ad.
Joe Pane (Ks Ad) stands with 21.
AceMcEllis (8s Ad) stands with 19.
Shawn Rice (6h 2h) hits, is dealt 3h, hits, is dealt Jc, stands with 21.

The dealer reveals 7c (now has 8d 7c), deals 8c, busts with 23.

Joe Pane (Ks Ad = 21) wins.
Joe Pane (Jh 6d = 16) wins.
AceMcEllis (8s Ad = 19) wins.
Shawn Rice (6h 2h 3h Jc = 21) wins.

Joe Pane ends hand with 103,000.
AceMcEllis ends hand with 84,250.
Shawn Rice ends hand with 84,500.

I felt like Joe's most likely result was a push and mine was a win. If I double, I bring push-lose into play. Right? Wrong? Thanks for your input.

Chris C

 

[KenSmith]

Standing is the best play for you.
If we temporarily ignore Shawn, you stay ahead of Joe with any dealer outcome other than a bust or dealer 20. That gives you 69% right there. Then there are additional chances to win if Shawn gets in trouble.

If Shawn hits to soft 19 or hard 17, whichever he gets to first, your chance of surviving is around 75%.

If Shawn wants to give himself the highest chance of surviving this hand (while ignoring the value of the chips it costs), he should actually surrender here, which gives him a better chance, but helps you immensely. You're over 93% to survive then.