"House Of Pane" Teaser

J

Joep

Active Member
Lets try something new in a teaser. I usually present a teaser and ask what bet would you have made or how would you play this hand.

Lets try a new type of teaser,if you will a "House Of Pane" Teaser

I will give you a choice of 3 bets.Pick the bet that you would have made and tell us why you like this bet,or pick a bet of your own and share with us why you would have made that bet in this situation.

OK here is the situation

You are Br 1 betting 2 with only 3 players let on a Final Table

The prize structure looks like this

1st Place 40,000 cash + a 10,000 entry into the UBT Tournament Of Champions

2nd Place 10,000

3rd Place 5,000

Both you and Br 2 have your secret bets left.

Here are the bankrolls

Br 2 322,000

Br 1 (YOU) 361,000

Br 3 251,000


Here are the Bets you can chose from

Bet #1 77,000

Bet #2 38,000

Bet #3 81,000

Br 2 did use their secret bet so no information is available to you about their bet. The only known factor is that Br 2 is a seasoned tournament player. Br 3 is unknown

So tell us what bet of the 3 you would have selected and why,or tell us what bet you would have made that is different than any of the 3 bets, I have suggested.

I hope you enjoy this "House Of Pane" teaser which we can bang around for the next few days and then once we have a majority choice on the bets we can play the hands that were dealt to the players.



Joep
 
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Typo?

Was bet #3 meant to be 91,000, not 81,000?

91,000 looks better to me than 77,000 as it covers a BR3 max bet DD. This is at the expense of the surrender beating a BR2 push, but it should still beat a BR2 loss or surrender.
 
What Colin said

I'll go $91K as well for the reasons already stated.

This is why I believe you have chosen the bets you did:

#1 - $77K - Surrender low over BR2 as well as high but you don't get to DD over a max bet by BR2 but you can DD to beat MaxB BJ

#2 - $38K - The low; very risky with 2 or more opponents. You can double to retake the high but can't cover BR2 or BR3 doubles.

#3 - $81K - No surrender low over BR2 but you will have the high and can double to beat max bet doubles from BR2 and BR3. Can't beat BR3 max double with a single bet. A surrender will almost certainly force BR2 to win or push their hand for victory.

I think one needs to go for the high end here because BR2 and BR3 are likely bet large since first place pays significantly more than 2nd or 3rd (that UBT champions table could be worth much more than $10 large).

BR2 would be foolish to bet less than $40K and since BR3 is likely to go $100K he could almost certainly bet that amount to correlate and have the surrender low on BR3. I also believe that a max bet by BR2 makes betting decisions by BR1 more complicated and therefore they are more likely to make an error. Of course BR1 has no idea what BR2 bet and this could add to the confusion - "if BR2 is a skilled player how likely is he to wack a max bet out? Or is he more likely to be 'clever' and perform some complicated calculation to come up with an unusual number?"

Cheers

Reachy
 
Probably not a typo

I couldn't initially see what the purpose of 81,000 might be, but having read Reachy's post and looked again, I realise it allows a DD to beat a max-bet DD from BR2. (And BR2 cannot surrender a max bet to take the low - BR would be 272,000 versus our 280,000.)

I'll stick with 91,000 for now, but I'm wavering.
 
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Is this the Final Hand? That would have an impact on my decision, as I would be more interested in insuring elimination survival otherwise.

Final hand = $91,000 with the Secret.

Other elim hand - $77,000 for the reasons stated by RKuczek, and save the Secret for better use at a later time.
 
This is the final hand,I thought that was made clear by showing what was at stake with the payouts.

Joep



​
 
Angel said:
100,000 and go for it!
Click to expand...
On reflection, I think you may be right. 100K covers one extra possibility on the high side, compared to 91K -

You get a BJ, giving you a BR of 511K; BR3 doubles their BR (i.e. a split pair and a DD) giving a BR of 502K.

The extra 9K bet doesn't really cost anything on the low side, if you assume BR2 has bet 40K at the very least. You could still surrender and expect to have the low.
 
Br3 is going...

all in. So, to cover his DD and his BJ, my bet cannot be less than 91k to get the absolute high and low.

B2, a seasoned player, knows that also. His bet cannot be less than 65k to cover the DD high by BR3. But then, he knows that BR1 is going to bet at least 91k. He probably bet the max also to have a chance if B2 makes BJ

91k is the bet I would make as BR!
 
for a newbie

if any of you likes to go through the process - is there someone who would like to give a simple :) outline of all the possibilities ?
 
The way I see it

Eliburk,

For what it's worth, my thought processes ran something like this -

The fact that BR2, acting first, has a secret bet is a complication. They might enter into some mind games, trying to work out what I think they will bet and come up with something more creative.

However, suppose BR2 wasn't present at all and it was just a two-player showdown between 361K and 251K? According to Wong, the strongest way to play this is not to bet < 10K and force a DD as the only way to overtake you, but rather to bet enough to beat a max bet DD with a single bet win of your own (even though that risks you being swung).

If that is the case, the addition of another player into the mix doesn't make much difference. We are betting big.

91K was my initial response, as it is just enough to cover 2 x 100K. But then I revised that slightly when I noticed that if you bet slightly more you gain a tiny bit more advantage. 95K+ means that if you get a BJ and BR3 gets a pair, BR3 still can't overtake you even if they split the pair and DD one of the hands to double their BR.
 
thanks

Thanks - I seem to hit nights where every elimination round bet I lose. I am usually only advanced enough to bet the max I need to - if I can cover a DD I do but if not I just bet the max (assuming they are secret).
I have nights where I seem to lose every one of those :( but then again nights where I win...as I learn I try to refer back to the strategy but
at that point in the tournament is it counting that helps or just pure luck? I guess the best strategy is to get a big lead early.
On another point - I have looked and cannot find hand histories in UB. Do I just have to keep track of all this myself?
Do you keep track of player "personalities" like in NL Hold em?
 
It's important to distinguish between elimination rounds where avoiding being BRL is the primary goal, and final rounds where advancing or winning money is the goal.

In an elimination round betting the max is often better than betting such a large amount that if you lose the bet and survive elimination then you have too little left to mount a serious challenge and will probably just get eliminated in a later round. It's a subjective matter and I'm poorer than most at this element of the game, but I see the decision-making process in an elimination hand as -

  1. Work out a bet size that gives you the best chance of survival.
  2. Consider what sort of shape you would be in if you lost that bet, in terms of relative BR sizes.
  3. If you would be in bad shape then consider betting the max or the min. Less chance of surviving this round, but more chance of going on to advance if you do.
Don't follow my advice too slavishly though, my results at UB have been appalling. :o


Strategy for a final round depends on the pay structure -

If you are playing for a place in the next round of the tournament then there is no need to shoot for first place if the top two or three advance. You may be able to take a middle road and lock up an advancing position if everbody wins or everybody loses.

If you are playing a final table, where the top few places receive decreasing prizes, then you have to try and assess whether it is worth more to you to shoot for first place (at the cost of perhaps finishing with nothing), or to play similarly to how you would when just trying to finish in an advancing place - take the middle road and maximise your chances of winning some money, at the cost of reducing your chances of taking first prize.

In this example I think we've all taken the view that we should focus entirely on 1st prize. Having said that, I don't think my strategy would be any different, regardless. BR1 has such a dominating position over BR3 that (again according to Wong) BR1, by betting 91K+, is close to a .9 favourite to beat BR3 and therefore finish at least 2nd.


Regarding hand histories, I think this has been touched on before. I believe there is a facility during the game itself, but the information is lost once the table is completed. We've discussed the idea of using utilities that capture everything that goes on on the screen into a movie file, but I don't know if anyone has been doing this successfully.

People do keep note of players' personalities. I believe Fgk has extensive notes on all of us! :D I confess it's not something I've really been doing much, which is perhaps why my results have been so poor!
 
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