How much in (~%) I lose/win with this strategy ?

[PlayHunter]

Min/max bet 100/500 , starting bankrolls 1000 , no surrender. Playing against basic strategy computer player. (I apply this deviation only 1 time in a game)

Lets say it is hand 2 to 8 and I am already the leader (usually with a lead of 201 or +) and we both did the same bets or I have at least the high and low.

I get a 14 to 16, and my opponent also gets hard 14 to 16 and dealer card 10. - How much (%) I gain/lose if I Stand, knowing that my opponent will Hit ?

And the same question, for when my lead is less than minimum bet ? And again same question for when I am even BR2 with less than minimum bet behind ?

Edit: - If the gain/lose % evolution for this deviation is dependent of who is last to act on the last hand (which I think this is the case) then assume two versions: in version 1 the human will be first to act on the last hand in all 3 scenarios, and for version 2 he will be last to act on hand 10 in all 3 scenarios.

 

[gronbog]

If you're asking about the difference in your chances of finishing the round ahead of your opponent based on your play on hand 8 or earlier, then I don't think that anyone will be able to give you any numbers. There are simply too many possibilities to analyse.

If you want to know the optimal strategies for correlating vs a basic strategy opponent who acts after you on a given hand, then I can help you with that.

 

[PlayHunter]

If you want to know the optimal strategies for correlating vs a basic strategy opponent who acts after you on a given hand, then I can help you with that.

Yes, I think this is what I am looking for, and also to find out what are the chances for a half swing and a full swing to happen if I stand instead to hit.

 

[S. Yama]

hit 14

Sorry, I am in a rush, will be gone for a few days.
Happy Holidays to all.
Standing or hitting stiffs when you know your opponent will hit his 16 vs. dealer's Ten in all hands before the round 8 (or 7 if you are behind betting first) should be basic strategy, so you maximaze the EV.
The best case for hittin not standing can be made for 14 vs. opp. 16.
The numbers you may be intersted in are (assuming the same bets by both).

........................+2........+1........0..........-1........-2
stand 14..........14.2%......0.......68.7%.....5.6%.....11.2%
hit 14 once.......15.7......5.5%....61.2%.....5.5%.....12.6%

Hitting couses polarization of the bankroll spreads. It also gives you net gain of 7% of one bet.
It lowers the same results by 7.5%, keeps losing a bet (or two bets) to your opponent the same time (actually it is 0.5%), and you gain one or two bets 7% of the time.

S. Yama

 

[S. Yama]

mistyped

Actually I mistyped two positions:
stand 14 minus one bet is 5.9% not 5.6% and hitting 14 minus two bets is 12.15% not 12.6%.
Not that anybody will make any real use of them, lol.

S. Yama

 

[gronbog]

Min/max bet 100/500 , starting bankrolls 1000 , no surrender. Playing against basic strategy computer player. (I apply this deviation only 1 time in a game)

Lets say it is hand 2 to 8 and I am already the leader (usually with a lead of 201 or +) and we both did the same bets or I have at least the high and low.

I get a 14 to 16, and my opponent also gets hard 14 to 16 and dealer card 10. - How much (%) I gain/lose if I Stand, knowing that my opponent will Hit ?

Let's assume that your lead is 201, you bet 300 and your opponent bets 500. You have the high and the low and, since he is a basic strategy opponent, according to a recent post by Monkeysystem, it's better to give up your opponent's push in order to cover the high.

When your opponent has hard 14
Standing on your 14, 15 or 16 gives you ~80.0% chance of staying ahead
Hitting your 14 once gives you a ~79.6 chance
Hitting your 15 once gives you a ~78.5% chance
Hitting your 16 once gives you a ~78.1% chance

When your opponent has hard 15
Standing on your 14, 15 or 16 gives you ~81.5% chance of staying ahead
Hitting your 14 once gives you a ~81.1 chance
Hitting your 15 once gives you a ~80.5% chance
Hitting your 16 once gives you a ~79.6% chance

When your opponent has hard 16
Standing on your 14, 15 or 16 gives you ~82.6% chance of staying ahead
Hitting your 14 once gives you a ~82.3 chance
Hitting your 15 once gives you a ~81.5% chance
Hitting your 16 once gives you a ~81.3% chance

It's close, but it looks like you're better off standing in every case.

 

[gronbog]

And the same question, for when my lead is less than minimum bet ?

In this case, you would bet minimum plus your lead minus one chip and, in order to preserve the assumption that you still have the high and the low, we can assume that your opponent matches your bet. In this case, I believe that the situation is identical to the one in my previous post.

 

[gronbog]

And again same question for when I am even BR2 with less than minimum bet behind ?

In this case You opponent would have bet minimum plus his lead minus a chip and (for some reason) you matched his bet. You had better be pretty sure that your opponent will hit, because if you stand on your 14-16 he can do the same to lock in his lead. Perhaps not a disaster, since it is not the final hand.

Assuming that we know that he will play basic strategy, then he will hit to 17 or better vs the dealer's 10. If you stand on your 14-16, then you will take the lead only if he busts while attempting to do so and the dealer also busts. Fairly unlikely. You could try hitting in order to try generate a 1/2 swing, but your best option in this situation is simply to double for the lead if you can. If you can't take the lead by doubling, then hit to 17 or better.