Is card counting a big advantage in BJ tournament?

darklord

darklord

New Member
I am pretty good at counting card using KO system. However I just recently get started playing BJ tournament and I don't know for certain whether card counting would help much. I almost always bet the table minimum until the count gets juicy then I will start pumping up my bet (on average 20% to 40% of my bankroll depending on the count - is this low considering I don't get many chances on a 6 decks?). The problem is even if I play well on previous hands and become a chip leader, I usually get beaten on the last hand because some players go all in and get lucky. Sometimes on the last hand, I dare not go all in or bet big because the count is negative; in this situation, my strategy is to bet small and hopefully, let the big bettors take the beating.

Question #1: supposed on the few last hands especially the very last hand when the count is negative (this means the dealer has the winning advantage) and I am not the chip leader, should I just bet the table minimum and let the other players including the chip leader who bet big before me to take the beating? Or should I disregard the count and bet big to overtake the chip leader on the last hand and pray for luck?

Question #2: if 6 people play and casino picks 3 and I am not in the top three, shoud I pay attention the the 3rd chip leader or to the 1st chip leader to vary my final bet accordingly?
 
Efforts better spent on chips and bets (IMO)

darklord said:
I am pretty good at counting card using KO system. However I just recently get started playing BJ tournament and I don't know for certain whether card counting would help much. I almost always bet the table minimum until the count gets juicy then I will start pumping up my bet (on average 20% to 40% of my bankroll depending on the count - is this low considering I don't get many chances on a 6 decks?). The problem is even if I play well on previous hands and become a chip leader, I usually get beaten on the last hand because some players go all in and get lucky. Sometimes on the last hand, I dare not go all in or bet big because the count is negative; in this situation, my strategy is to bet small and hopefully, let the big bettors take the beating.

Question #1: supposed on the few last hands especially the very last hand when the count is negative (this means the dealer has the winning advantage) and I am not the chip leader, should I just bet the table minimum and let the other players including the chip leader who bet big before me to take the beating? Or should I disregard the count and bet big to overtake the chip leader on the last hand and pray for luck?
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Darklord,

Card counting is a long run proposition, tournaments are only a limited number of hands (short run). IMO you cannot gain enough of a advantage to possibly overcome bad bets. I would (do) concentrate more on other players chips and my betting.

On the other hand, if you used a powerful count (such HOII) against a very deeply dealt single deck tourney, then you might be able to take advantage of the count. But I don't think you find too many of these. :D

darklord said:
Question #2: if 6 people play and casino picks 3 and I am not in the top three, shoud I pay attention the the 3rd chip leader or to the 1st chip leader to vary my final bet accordingly?
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I'm assuming that you mean "picks 3" to move on to next level. If so, you only need to be number 3 and you don't need to risk any more than getting to that spot. If you mean pick 3 to be in the money, then it would depend on how much money difference there is between 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

Just my Thoughts,
Dan

P.S. I also try to avoid the dreaded "all in" bet tourneys.
 
Small, possibly insignificant advantage

Question #1

The experts seem to differ somewhat on whether card counting is worth the effort or not. However, the consensus seems to be that it's not hugely important.

In the early to middle hands of a round, card counting might yield some small advantage when you're just nickling along and not really calibrating your bets. Betting 20-40% of your bankroll is way too risky no matter how high your count is. However, 5-10% in a high count might not be too unreasonable, depending on the action at your table. Index plays improve your advantage a little bit too - every little bit helps.

In the later hands it's wise to drop the count. It's too much work and it distracts you from the more important work of correlating or opposing your players.

Your use of an unbalanced count like KO reduces the efficiency of your index plays, however, it's easy to use and that's important in a tournament.

Warning - an expert at your table could identify you as a card counter and profile you, making it easy for him/her to predict your bets. This would change your card counting from a small advantage to a big disadvantage for you. Even worse - the casino employees could profile you, possibly turning you into a slot tournament player. :eek: Have any of you veterans ever heard of this happening?

Question #2

In a three winner table Wong's book says to try to be BR2 until the last hand. Of course you have to use common sense. You can be satisfied with being BR3 if BR4 is so far behind you don't think he/she can catch up. On the last hand your best bet will likely be one that locks up BR3, or gives you the best chance of getting BR3.
 
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Card Counting

Ken Einiger won the World Series of Blackjack in 2005 and has stated that he does not count cards during tournament play.
Andy
 
Thanks for valuable inputs to my questions. If counting is not an important skill in BJ tournament, then what skill(s) is/are considered the most important in a BJ tournament?
 
Bet sizing is by far the most important skill in blackjack tournaments.
Playing the hand appropriately is next. Somewhere far down the list is card counting.

Most critical tournament decisions have to do with choosing a bet size that maximizes your opportunities to overtake the leaders (or prevent the chasers from catching up).

For most players, I believe card counting in tournaments is truly a waste of mental effort. There are much more important things to do than that.

As an example, I just competed in the new series of shows for the Ultimate Blackjack Tour. I never counted a single card.
 
Thanks for the advice, Ken. I understand that I should bet table minimum at least half way through the tournament or when some players are ahead of me by one max bet unit; however let's say half way throught the game, all the players have roughly the same amount, should I just keep betting minimum or increase my bet? In other words, when is the right time I should increase my bet to become the table leader? if so, what is the optimal amount I should increase? The reason I ask is because I prefer to be a leader as earlier as possible than being a catcher.
 
This KO system has me wondering. Years ago the Uston plus-minus is what I remember using. Seems there are 101 different counting systems, and everyone gives you a different story on which is best. The KO is relatively new, and the only people so far I've seen pushing how superb it is, seem to be the original designers and authors.

Can it realy be better than the Uston APC method too?
 
K-o Count

I have been using the K-O system for about 8 months now and love it ! Have had some good retutns ( not in tourny ) using it in tunica.
 
Darklord, if you want to try to take the lead, you should wait until the button passes you, (I try to wait until around ten hands to go when the button passes). This way you can see what everyone else at the table has bet. At this point you should bet just enough to take the lead, without risking anymore chips then you have to. If you make that bet, then try to match everyone thats trying to catch you. People win and lose together as much as 80% of the time. It can really get crazy in the last three hands. Your goal should be to be in a BR* spot (This means if two advance then BR* is either BR1 or BR2)going into the last hand. You should pick up a copy of Stanford Wongs Blackjack Tournament Strategy. This book is The Tournament Bible.

Slim:cool:
 
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Take the lead late

With only one contender, and only one hand to go, your chance of getting swung is pretty low if you match his/her bet. But with more hands to go, and with more players in contention, your chance of getting swung approaches 100% if you're matching their bets after you take the lead. But if you try to grab the lead too late you'll be correlated and unlikely to succeed. It's a balancing act.

The point I'm making here is there are way bigger considerations at the end of a round than the card count. It's wise to drop the count when you start correlating or opposing your players for the following reasons: 1) The information isn't useful, either for bet sizing or playing decisions. 2) It's distracting. You have too much to think about already. 3) An expert could profile you and predict your decisions.
 
12 % does not equal 100 %

If each hand is independent of another and your chances of being on the wrong side of a swing is only 12% how do you calculate that more hands will get you to 100 % chance of being swung . Remember also you may swing them on one of these hands to increase your lead over your opponets.Give me the lead I will take my chances playing from in front ;)
 
Thanks for the inputs to my questions. I ordered Stan Wong's tournament book and thought it's pretty good. After months of playing, I realize card counting is not that helpful, sometimes it helps me but sometimes it kills me cause when the count is positive, I usually bet big and if I lose the hand, I get hot headed and start chasing my loss by betting more.

I think I would be a better tournament player if I learn to control my emotion or temper. I get temperant when some stupid assholes sit down at the table and start giving comments to the way I play and yeah, those combodian bitches always annoy me with their yap yap mouth. These bitches are well known for exchanging their black chips for red or green chips making it hard for other players to count their chip. That's a dirty way to play. Stan Wong should have a chapter on anger management, cause I need it.
 
Getting swung

If your chance of getting swung by one player in one hand is 12%, then your chance of not getting swung is 88%. Your chance of not getting swung by one player in two hands is 88%^2 = 77%. Your chance of not getting swung by one player in five hands is 88%^5 = 53%, so your chance of getting swung by that one player in five hands is 47%. Of course, during those five hands you could be on the favorable end of a swing also, negating the effects of the negative swing.

However, what are your chances of getting swung by any of four opponents in any one hand? It's substantially higher than 12%, though mathematical correlation through the dealer's hand doesn't allow you to simply multiply these probabilities together. Lets say it's only 25%, though it's likely somewhat higher than that. If that were the case your chance of not getting swung would be 75%. Through five hands 75%^5 = 24%. Your chance of getting swung in five hands against four players then would be 76%. In ten hands it must approach 100%. Of course the swings in your favor could negate these effects.

I'd rather take my chances as leader than chaser too. ;) This just illustrates that betting big to get the lead too early doesn't yield as much value for your risk as if you wait a bit. It also illustrates the dangers of correlation betting when you're in the lead.
 
Keep cool

"Keeping Cool" during tournament play is an absolute necessity, as far as I'm concerned. I too tend to "lose it" during both tournament and live play. I have to keep reminding myself that "playing dumb" is exactly what it is - dumb. Just keep cool and you'll win more --- much more.

My wife keeps her cool when playing BJ no matter what. I wish I had her trait. I keep trying to get her to learn tournament BJ but no success. Maybe someday.

On another note, I now understand a little better about the dangerous side of correlation betting. That's, in part, what cost me an advancement from the second round of the finals at the Hilton's MDBJTIII. Don't get me wrong. Playing the percentages, correlation betting is a solid play but it can, and does, backfire at times. I now see the reason in mathematical terms.

Now about that picture monkeysystem ...
 
44 % vs.12%

If you have the lead and do nothing to protect your lead, when you opponet bets enough to pass you they will win 44 times lose 48 and push 8 times out of 100 hands .If you bet with them they will pass you only 12 % of the time .I like the old fashion way much better.Correlation betting is so much better math wise anyway.
 
Correlation

Agreed. If you take a lead then sit there betting minimum you're almost certain to get passed up. Correlation is the best approach, but there's no guarantee you'll hang onto your lead. And as the number of turns you're correlating increases, and as the number of chasers increases, your chances of getting swung increases.

When correlating you don't necessarily have to match their bets exactly. Is it usually better to bet less than your opponents when you have the lead? That way you have them taking bigger risks than you in a negative EV game. Or is it usually better to bet more than them, to leverage your lead? What situations would lead you to take either approach?

Joep said:
If you have the lead and do nothing to protect your lead, when you opponet bets enough to pass you they will win 44 times lose 48 and push 8 times out of 100 hands .If you bet with them they will pass you only 12 % of the time .I like the old fashion way much better.Correlation betting is so much better math wise anyway.
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Try This Approach

This is where knowing your opponets chip count is paramounth.Betting with them is one approach then the next level of thinking is can you now bet more without giving up anything like a swing,and now build on your lead to reach first level of 1/2 of a max bet and then start working on getting up to a full max bet lead.Remember you can correlate and still protect your lead.The trick is to be able to do all these numbers in your head in less than a minute not for the faint of heart but with a lot of tournament play you will be surprised how often the same situtions keep on coming up over and over again .Hope this help you !!
 
How about a 1/3 max bet lead?

1/2 max is better, but 1/3 is another target to shoot for in a game that allows surrender. With a >1/3 max bet lead you can lead off with a bet 1 chip less than double your lead. Then you have the high and can surrender back to the low if your chance of losing a single bet is greater than your player's chance of winning a single bet.

1/2 max is better because you still have this option, but also have the option to just bet a chip less than your lead to take the high-low. Also with a 1/2 bet lead you can bet enough to cover his DD with your DD, while retaining the option to surrender back to the low. Actually you have this DD option with a lead >2/5 max.

With a lead >2/3 max you can get this DD option without overbetting your lead. This applies to games with or without surrender.
 
Since very few tournaments offer surrender the 1/2 max bet lead is the one that you should always be shooting for first.Even with surrender the 1/2 max bet lead leaves you more room for adjustments in your bet totals.
 
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