Is it my local action or is it me?

[Jeff Dubya]

So... I have been doing some thinking. Scary, I know. Bad place to start.

I play at a local casino here in my hole-in the woods BFE town of Pullman, WA. It's nice for what it is and where I am. However, I have noticed that I rarely can win there. It's odd. Yet, when I travel, whether that is to Spokane, WA or to Vegas, I will generally win or at least break even. Sure, when I travel I may have a bad streak every now and then (last Saturday at Caesar's comes to mind, ouch) but overall I am up and usually significantly.

I have always tried to follow the line of play that says other players crappy play at the table does not affect anything, that I just need to play the best BS I can and stay consistent with my strategy and my money management. However, based on the amount of absolute **** play I have been noticing at this casino (which does take away from my overall enjoyment), I am wondering if those players taking cards or not taking cards will affect my overall statistical averages. I have to believe it will, because in theory for BS to work, it must be followed consistently by all players! Right?

I mean, in tournament BJ if you have a small bet and your opponents are betting huge you may or may not take a hit depending on the situation REGARDLESS of the tables primarily because you are trying to wreck some hands. Right?

Another thing about this casino is that some of the dealers really suck. It's distracting, and again takes away from the overall enjoyment of the game. But up until this point it's been one of those "take what you can get" things.

So is this just some sour grapes on my part or should I start avoiding this casino and heading north to Spokane frequently to hone my skills and bankroll?

 

[Covered_in_Bees!]

I am wondering if those players taking cards or not taking cards will affect my overall statistical averages. I have to believe it will, because in theory for BS to work, it must be followed consistently by all players! Right?

I've been doing a lot studying and research lately as I'm starting to become more serious about my blackjack playing and I have never heard or read anything that stated that for Basic Strategy to work it must be consistently followed by all players.

Maybe I'm not thinking as deeply about it as I should be, but I can't think of why or how Basic Strategy is affected by other players at the table.

For example, if BS says that you should split, how is this affected by what other players at the table have done before you in this hand? Basic Strategy, as far as I know, is based off pure math, odds and percentages from calculations more complex than I can explain, but it still will never take into account other players, because they don't matter.

Thinking of giving up BS because of other players playing badly feels akin to saying it was a bad decision to go for a drive because you've been hit by another car in the past.

Going for a drive was a fine decision at the time you made it and shouldn't be impacted at all by the past, barring a bunch of complexities. The past (what other players are doing in a hand) shouldn't affect your Basic Strategy, since it still will always yield your best chances of winning.

Counting on the other hand, I do believe is affected by other players, but I'm not a counter by any means, so I'll leave that for someone else to comment on.

Forgive me if I made absolutely no sense, it's one in the morning and I tend to become rather incoherent when I post on message boards this late.

 

[Monkeysystem]

Opposite Is True

Actually, other players playing badly is something that should prompt a card counter to sit down and play, and continue playing, at a table. This is because many players believe that bad play disrupts the "flow of the cards" and they get up and leave. Fewer players = faster action = more profits.

The "flow of the cards" is the most prevalent old wives' tale one hears in casinos or discussions of gambling. In fact, there's nothing an opponent can do in any seat position to change everyone's luck. The cards are shuffled, and then one of the players cuts them in full view of everyone. In any given shuffle if the player who cut them had placed the cut card in a different spot, everyone would get different cards. If a player makes bad playing decisions that cause cards to come out in a different order than they would have, it's no different than if the cards had been shuffled differently. It's all still governed by probability mathematics.

I've seen tournament players bet minimum and make non-BS playing decisions in hopes of disrupting the "flow of the cards" and causing their opponents to lose their bigger bets. Such players hit hard 17, stand on six, etc. hoping to win by making their opponents lose. Such play is a good shortcut to the rebuy line.

It's human (and simian ) nature to discern patterns in the phenomena we observe. This is an instinct that helps animals survive in their natural environment and that we inherited from our animal ancestors. Ignore this instinct when playing blackjack. Don't give in to the temptation to believe in superstitions like the "flow of the cards." Keep faith in the mathematics of the game and you'll come out ahead in the long run.

 

[MrPill]

BS alone is a negative expectation

...............I have always tried to follow the line of play that says other players crappy play at the table does not affect anything, that I just need to play the best BS I can and stay consistent with my strategy and my money management. However, based on the amount of absolute **** play I have been noticing at this casino (which does take away from my overall enjoyment), I am wondering if those players taking cards or not taking cards will affect my overall statistical averages. I have to believe it will, because in theory for BS to work, it must be followed consistently by all players! Right?..........

Jeff,

If you are only a BS player, then in the long run you are expected to loose. My playing strick BS, the math says you will loose at a certain percentage in the "long run". It has nothing to do with the other players at the table.

To be a "consistant" winner, a player must have some type of additional form of advantage play going for them. What is your other "strategy"? BS and money management alone is not a winning combination.

Good Cards,
Pill

 

[London Colin]

I mean, in tournament BJ if you have a small bet and your opponents are betting huge you may or may not take a hit depending on the situation REGARDLESS of the tables primarily because you are trying to wreck some hands. Right?

No. If you accept that bad players (or, for that matter, good or indifferent players) cannot affect you, then it follows that you cannot affect them, either in regular play, or in tournament play. You cannot wreck anybody else's hand, since you don't know what the next card is going to be.

In a tournament, you will deviate from basic strategy at times. You might stand when BS says to hit, in order to correlate you result with an opponent who has stood on a stiff total. Conversely, you might hit rather than stand, in order to try and swing them. And when it comes to the final hands, you may deviate from BS due to concerns such as 'Push is as bad as a loss', etc.

Actually, other players playing badly is something that should prompt a card counter to sit down and play, and continue playing, at a table. This is because many players believe that bad play disrupts the "flow of the cards" and they get up and leave. Fewer players = faster action = more profits.

Presumably then, that's only a factor if all the tables are crowded - Sit down with the bad players and hope they will drive others away. If there's an empty table, then your work has already been done for you!

I was going to say that counting and BS are both equally unaffected by other players' actions (prior to reading your post), but then I wondered if I could concoct a scenario in which 'bad play' might hurt a counter. How about this? -

A counter is back counting, and only sitting down when the deck is favourable. If the other players at the table for some reason tend to hit more than BS dictates, then the cards will be consumed more quickly, resulting in fewer rounds to be played at an advantage. (Of course, if the players have the reverse tendency then that will help the counter, though not as much as if they get up and leave.)

Does that make sense?

 

[Billy C]

The Counters

The only way a counter is affected by other players actions is that the count changes with the cards they get (unless they're all neutral cards).

Billy C

 

[Jeff Dubya]

Thanks for helping me clarify this.

Up until now, I have never believed in the "flow" of the cards, I am not superstitious, and you get what you get. Perhaps I am just over thinking this a little bit.

My guess is that the combination of bad dealers and bad players just mentally frustrate me a little bit and they make for a good excuse when the casino maintains their 1% edge.

No, I don't have any additional strategy yet. But I am searching for one. I would like to learn to count but really feel like I need someone to tutor me, learning to count cards from a textbook strikes me a lot like learning to lift weights from a textbook. You may have the basic idea of the motion, but in the long run may actually be doing it all wrong and hurting yourself more than you are helping.

 

[Monkeysystem]

Oops

Dubya, my post was intended for a general audience. I didn't mean to call you superstitious - we all know you're not. Sorry for any misunderstanding.

There are some pretty good computer programs out there for practicing card counting. Casino Verite is the best one I've tried; a little pricey but well worth the money. You don't need anyone to tutor you if you use these computer programs. I didn't have anyone.

You can set up a computer program to go faster than a live game and alert you when you make errors. I find counting in live games to be easy after I've been practicing on a computer.

 

[sweet william]

superstitous?

probley nobody is going to admit it,but it never hurts to ware your lucky jocky
shorts,favorite socks,kick cat,kiss wife,pet dog,wave to neighbor. and of course all pros know to trim tonails night before for that extra bit of luck.(lol)

 

[Monkeysystem]

Or...

probley nobody is going to admit it,but it never hurts to ware your lucky jocky
shorts,favorite socks,kick cat,kiss wife,pet dog,wave to neighbor. and of course all pros know to trim tonails night before for that extra bit of luck.(lol)

Or a beanie baby monkey in your pocket??

 

[MrPill]

Card Consumption

................
I was going to say that counting and BS are both equally unaffected by other players' actions (prior to reading your post), but then I wondered if I could concoct a scenario in which 'bad play' might hurt a counter. How about this? -

A counter is back counting, and only sitting down when the deck is favourable. If the other players at the table for some reason tend to hit more than BS dictates, then the cards will be consumed more quickly, resulting in fewer rounds to be played at an advantage. (Of course, if the players have the reverse tendency then that will help the counter, though not as much as if they get up and leave.)
..................

Does that make sense?

London,

Yes, your thoughts on card consumption is correct. Fewer (or more) hands in a positive situation is bad (or good) and can be an effect caused by another player. This is mentioned by some of the good books on the game including some of Snyder's works.

Good Cards,
Pill

 

[London Colin]

London,

Yes, your thoughts on card consumption is correct. Fewer (or more) hands in a positive situation is bad (or good) and can be an effect caused by another player. This is mentioned by some of the good books on the game including some of Snyder's works.

Good Cards,
Pill

Yeah. I can't claim to have come up with the idea independently; I've been reading. But it's the number of players at the table that is obviously the major concern. It occurred to me, in the context of this discussion, that how they are playing could also have a tiny influence on the rate of card consumption.

 

[Jeff Dubya]

Dubya, my post was intended for a general audience. I didn't mean to call you superstitious - we all know you're not. Sorry for any misunderstanding.

Whether you did or didn't... there's no problem whatsoever. Not only am I not superstitious, I'm also not easily offended.

It's amazing how many card players I have met - including good ones - who *are* superstitious.

The only superstition I subscribe to is that if I win a lot of money on a Vegas vacation and take my wife to the Coach store... I'm probably going to get a booty call. Maybe. But I doubt that's what you were referring to.