Last Hand - 2 advance

B

BlueLight

Active Member
This was the last hand at a table that I was watching - 2 advance
BJ 2-1 Dealer H17S18 Min bet 25 Max Bet 2500

Player.............BkRll.............Hold............Bet

Allen..............4000............. 2000..........2000
Baker.............3400..............2200 ..........1200
Chuck............4000..............1700...........2300

Allen has to act 1st and elects to bet half his bankroll.
Baker acts after Allen and knows to take the low against Allen and holds back a few more chips.
Chuck bets 300 more than Allen presumably to beat Allen in case they both win.


The cards are delt and the play is as follows:

Player..............BkRll.............Hold...........Bet................Cards

Allen................4000............2000.........2000.............10+3 + 5 = 18
Baker...............3400............2200..........1200.............10+3 + 4 = 17
Chuck..............4000............1700...........2300.............4+A + 4 = 19

Dealer .............................................................................8

What are 2 obvious mistakes by the players?


..................................BlueLight
 
Hey BlueLight, nice to see you posting. I've been wondering where you have been. As usual, it appears that you are favouring quality over quantity.

I saw one mistake right away. Chuck had the chance to go for the middle by betting 1900. With that bet he finishes second if everyone wins and also second if everyone loses. By betting for the 1st high, he actually placed Allen in the middle. I hope Allen bought him a drink later.

This second "obvious" error seems to be eluding me, but perhaps it was obvious to you at the time. The best I can come up with is that Baker may have had a free hit on his 17. If he stands on his 17, he needs either Allen or Chuck to lose in order to advance. Nothing changes if he busts and, if he hits his 17, he could create a situation where he beats one of them if they push. A small improvement, but it comes at no cost.
 
Yes gronbog you are correct. The way I looked at it is Chuck could have had the high and low over Baker, and the low over Allen.
With a dealer 8 up it sure looks like a dealer hand of 18. Baker needs to hit to 19 or higher, to counter a possible push by Allen or bust out trying without giving up the low. If Chuck had been delt a hard 17 then Baker needs to hit to 18. Since Baker does not know what Chuck will end up with, then Baker should just hit to 19. Baker would have gotten that 4 (for 21) that Chuck got.
How did the hand turn out? Well when it was the dealer's time to play her hand Allen was hoping for a dealer 18, but the dealer turned over an A for 19 and Allen was eliminated. 19 is the only dealer outcome that eliminates Allen.

Here are some interesting numbers for Baker standing or hitting to 19 assuming Chuck will stand on H17 or S18
Baker stands on 17 :
Allen advance 91.46%
Baker advance 54.87%
Chuck advance 53.67%

Baker attempting to hit to 19 or higher:
Allen advance 86.97%
Baker advance 60.26%
Chuck advance 52.77%

With Chuck's large bet he has only a 50.81% chance to advance if every plays basic strategy for hitting and standing (no doubling or splitting).
A Chuck bet of 1700 (or 1900) he has a 89.46% chance to advance.



..............................................................................BlueLight
 
When I first saw that, my first impression was that Allen should have bet $600. If 2 out of 3 advance and Allen is BR1, taking the low might be the way to go. When Allen bet 2000, Chuck should have bet less than 1900 as Gronbog pointed out.
 
I just noticed that Chuck should bet 1700. That way he has 1st low over everyone else. And now if Allen gets a BJ and both Baker and Chuck lose then Chuck advances by holding 2300 to Baker's 2200.

Since Allen must act 1st he should bet 575 (bet your lead minus a chip - Wong). That way if Allen loses and Baker pushes then Allen finishes ahead of Baker rather than tying Baker with a 600 bet.


....................................................................BlueLight
 
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