Last hand dilemma

KenSmith

KenSmith

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Staff member
From a sit & go at Global Player today:

In button order:

wBill has $922.50 and bets $80
Ken21 has $1045 and bets $40
jerry123 has $677.50 and bets $500

wBill has blackjack, and stands.
I have a pair of 4s against a dealer 3.
jerry123 has pat 20, TT.

On my decisions:
I decided to bet the $40 to not open up the single bet win/loss swing over wBill. While that's a debatable choice, I find the play of the hand more interesting...

I decided to split and double both hands. (I busted them both.) If I push by winning one and losing one, I still take second place. If I luck up and don't bust either hand, I can still take first place.

I'm just curious about other opinions on these plays.
 
Last hand dilema

Since Jerry had four bjs in the round prior to that and I busted out early, I should't bother to comment, other than to say it just shows to goya, the best laid plans and all that, but given all your past recommendations, what you did, I think, gave you the best shot, if the cards fall the right way. And I'm beginning to wonder when they do do that voodooo that they do, other than for Norm(whose a good player and his edict that cards find the good players still stands.

cause go ahead and put the numbers against the circumstances. They fall where they fall. but to win the low probabillity move is all that's there. A hit out does you no good. Sorry to blab on and on, but the best move was to split and HOPE for a win on both.
 
to be...

I have only a minute to spare, so here is my two minutes analysis.
Ken, I know that your playing strategy is based on other players’ tendencies.
Nevertheless, Bill will have enough time to see that he has an almost “free” double to swing/push you. He will be successful less than ten percent but more than five percent of the times.
Jerry’s win gets him the first place unless you win a four-bet – foget ‘bout it.
So your play roughly gave you a tad more than 50% chance for the first place and almost 50% for the second. Total EV about $37.10.
The other betting option to consider would be a bet big enough to cover (very likely) Jerry’s max bet of 500. You need to bet at least 135, but this opens possibilities for Bill to push/swing you. If you are betting more than 120 you may as well try to bet enough to cover Jerry’s blackjack or double down.
The question would be do you want to bet just 135 -to cover Jerry’s straight bet, or 315 to cover double, or 385 to cover him getting a bj.
Betting no more than 320 (Bill surrenders), and no more than 370 (losing to Jerry’s push) offers benefits of surrendering based on seeing specific totals of your opponents.
Range of 315 to 320 is most appealing to me. The differences must be really insignificant. But let’s look at general chances for the “bigger” bet.
If you win your hand, or push and Jerry doesn’t win and Bill doesn’t win his double you claim the first prize. That alone could be 50%.
I guesstimate this kind of play would produce 60% of the times first place and 30% second place. Total EV about $37.35
Darn, looks like you missed a quarter. LOL

Good luck in Colorado.

S. Yama
 
I like $135 bet

I like the $135 to cover Jerry straight up and you can always surrender back to cover wBill if needed.

If Jerry does hit a BJ you just take 2nd and try again.

S. Yama (once again) gives a wonder breakdown on all the options you had.

However I like the effort you put out going for the win instead of settling for 2nd place, great never die attitude.
 
Last edited:
Tx, Good never-say-die attitude, yes. But, my bet really was a stinker.

I was so surprised by wBill's bet that I got all wrapped up considering what I could do with a small bet.

Yama, your two-minute analysis is erroneous in one area, which taints the further thinking. My $40 bet already covers a double-win by Bill.

That protection against the single-swing, along with automatically covering a double win with my win is what got me excited about the small bet, and led me to ignore the better play...

A bet between $135 and $200 gives me first high and first low over the whole table without having to surrender. In the time allotted, I think $200 is the bet I should have been able to make.

Betting more to guard against Jerry's blackjack or double doesn't seem like it's worth the risk of giving low to Bill unless I surrender. I can still double if needed.
 
I do not fault your choice since I do not know the odds, but I question which has the highter probability. A $60 bet would covered both a BJ or double by wBill, but would have opened up the swing possibility. Which is preferable?:confused:
 
Ken, your bet bet was very close to optimal, and someone would need to spend more than couple hours, not minutes, to be able to put forward opinion that would offer specifications and and had real validity.

As to our olfactory senses, your post wasn’t a stinker. Unless you meant it ironically, and my dense moi missed the LOL acronym at the end of the sentence.

My post very likely can be erronesus but not as a result of not including the idea that your bet of 40 already covers a double-win by Bill. I reread my post twice and I can’t find anything that suggests that this was what I implied. I’ve been well aware that your $40 bet already covers a double-win by Bill.
The closest was sentece:
“Bill will have enough time to see that he has an almost “free” double to swing/push you.”
When I reffer to a situation where one player needs a specific outcome I try to reffer to first “at least” results that meets the criteria. So, assuming Bill’s double, he needs to swing/push you. That means his winning doubled bet and you losing your triple, double, or single bet, as well Bill’s winning doubled bet and you pushing.
And to make sure, this assumption was only needed to estimate your total value of the play and was not specific to any bet, as when you push, it doesn’t matter what was you bet size.

In my post I also put emphasis on efort to always recognize ranges of possible bets.
So if you decide to bet more than $120 you need to bet at least $135.
The first bet bigger than $135 that may cause a disadvantage is $325 – Bill’s surrender beats your surrender.
Can you find additional benefits within the range of $135 to $320? Yes, it is $315 –single win covers Jerry’s winning doubled/max bet (there are also other benefits to this bet).
I am not sure what’s the apeal of $200 bet (though if I had only seconds to make it I could have done it myself). The only thing I like about it is that for any bet smaller than $240 I can take “semi-free” insurance if the dealer is showing an Ace and Bill takes insurance.

This is a great example of a typical blackjack “conversation piece” that we often talk about on this forum. If we care, and don’t mind that in reality the differences in expected value are only a quarter or even pennies, we find intricate conditions, partial solutions that lead to more detailed and more precise answers. I think someone once said: “There's always a better bet” ...
Only if day had 25 hours..

Good luck,
S. Yama
 
It was indeed the sentence you note in your post that I misinterpreted and thus thought you had overlooked the covered double. I now see what you intended.

As for $200, it is all I can bet and still keep first low. Bill has $842.50 back, and a $200 bet leaves me with $845 unbet.

On your comments about the intricacies and how we can almost always dig a little deeper, how very right you are.

Thanks for your efforts, as always.
 
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