Optimal bet ?

[PlayHunter]

Hand 9 out of 10, max bet 500, no resplit, no double for less.

BR2 3159 chips bet 500 and BR1 4035 chips - What`s BR1 best bet ?

(PS: Should have any weight if there is a very strong +6 true count ?)

 

[gronbog]

I gave myself a 30 second time limit and came up with betting enough to cover his 2 bet win (double or split), but not enough to give up a full swing of 1 bet each. This gives a range of 125-375. I then chose the high end of this range, since it gives you the chance to cover his possible 3 bet win by doubling. So my bet is 375.

Then I gave myself the luxury of unlimited analysis, but haven't managed to come with anything that I think is better. There is no reason to bet less than 125. Covering his double is the first priority. Betting more than 375 still can't cover his 3 bet win without doubling. It does allow for the possibility of covering his 3 bet win with with a blackjack, but at the cost of exposing a full 1 bet swing. I'm not sure whether it's worth it or not. My gut says no.

So 375 is my bet and I'm sticking with it.

I don't think the count is a factor here. It doesn't change the odds of winning/losing your hand significantly. It does increase the odds of a blackjack or a successful double, but we already have these covered.

 

[PlayHunter]

I did the same (375 bet) but he got BJ, I lost and so the swing produced. - That`s why I was asking if the true count should have been accounted here.

 

[gronbog]

Ahhh, I see. You could have bet 125 and still covered his double and protected yourself from his blackjack at the cost of not being able to double to cover his 3 bet win. That does seem like the right trade off now that I think about it, since your opponent has a better chance of getting a blackjack than winning 3 bets. This would probably be the case regardless of the count.